When a team has a prolonged win streak, the big worry is the game after a first loss. Even with the Knicks being at home, you are seeing the spread venture down to pick em territory. San Antonio has made enough defensive adjustments that game two’s shining performers in Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet were non existent in game three. Defense gets the Spurs back in the series, as they pull off another road win.
De’Aaron Fox had the offense in game two with twenty points. Game three he stayed aggressive with his shot, and shot fourteen attempts. Although he had an off shooting night, staying with it is what matters. For the second straight game he came up clutch in the fourth quarter with six points. Take Fox to clear his points prop for the second time in the NBA Finals.
Anytime a player misses an important stretch due to injury there is going to be doubt the following game. Stephon Castle went down tweaking his ankle with under seven minutes left in game two, and did not return. He appears to be fine, and I’ll back in game three. Overall he has been a far better producer on the road in the playoffs where in nine games he is averaging 22 points, versus just 16 at home in the postseason. Less perimeter shooting from Castle, as he attacks the paint. Take his over.
The Spurs find themselves down 0-2, where their youth showed in both games. The losses is what gets glorified, but the Spurs battled back with quick rallies in both games. Look for a bit more consistent of a game, and a better coaching job from Mitch Johnson. Where they can use their total roster for execution, instead of force feeding Wemby. Take the Spurs in game three.
D’Aron Fox took the most heat in game one’s loss for the Spurs, and rightfully so. He was just 3 of 13 from the floor and finished with seven points. He averaged just 11 points in the series against OKC, and has not cleared his points prop since the closeout game against Minnesota. Maybe the last true buy low spot on a player prop offering, take Fox’s over.
With the Knicks winning game one, this should be a series that goes seven games. Tonight I expect the Spurs to respond in a big way as they have off a loss in the postseason. As strong as the Knicks win streak is, the Spurs have lost two games in a row just once in the postseason. Since the start of the New Year, they have not lost consecutive games at home. The way they blew game one was reminiscent of the NBA Cup championship. A late third quarter double digit lead that quickly faded. They respond in game two.
Game five we saw Chet Holmgren finally be aggressive offensively. He had eight quick points in the first quarter, but had a sloppy second half. He scored just one field goal in the second half, and was not on the court the final seven and a half minutes. Expect Holmgren to take that to heart, and play an efficient game for four quarters.
The New York Knicks playoff win streak at nine has now surpassed their best win streak of the regular season. They are up two games to none on the Cavaliers, but Cleveland has had its moments. Game one they of course blew, and game two was about missed wide open looks from beyond the arc. They went 9 of 35 as a team, and also missed ten free throws. In a desperation game at home, look for Cleveland to finally gain a win.
Look for the Cleveland Cavaliers to lean more on Max Strus in game two. He had a noticeable impact in game one, that did not reflect his output in terms of points. The Cavaliers even called a set play for Strus out of a timeout, in which he drained a three. I would not be shocked to see Strus play over thirty minutes, and score double figures for just the second time in seven games. Play his points prop over.
Oklahoma City went down in game one, but got what they needed from forward Jalen Williams. He was the Thunder’s top scorer in terms of starter’s with 26 points. He did miss some good looks late, including a three pointer but did not look impacted from his three weeks out. With the bigs in Hartenstein and Holmgren likely to continue to struggle, I expect Williams to remain as aggressive with his shot selection as he was in game one. Take his points prop over.
The New York Knicks have not stepped onto the court in nine days, since they swept the Philadelphia 76ers. It has also been since May 6th when they last had their starting lineup together with OG Anunoby. Cleveland's only win against the Knicks was with new acquisitions in Dennis Shroeder and James Harden. Additionally, Max Strus did not play in any of the three matchups due to injury. Look for the Cavs versatile lineup to give the Knicks trouble in game one, as well as pressure on this Knicks team to avoid a repeat game one loss in the ECF. Grab the points with the Cavaliers.
During the five regular season matchups against the Thunder, Stephon Castle scored 19 or more points in four games. Castle may be a first time postseason player, but he has elevated his play. Through the first two rounds he is averaging 20 points in the playoffs, and this is while averaging just 32 minutes. The Thunder are a great defensive team, but look for Castle to be one of the Spurs not impacted. Take his over.
The OKC Thunder as the defending champions you could not ask for a better start in the first two rounds of the playoffs. They have yet to lose as they swept the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams were dealing with injuries, and now the Thunder will see a Spurs team that has the depth to match them. I would not be surprised for the Thunder to have a double digit lead at halftime, but this Spurs team has shown to be a second half team. Grab the number with the Spurs.
Game seven we know is all about the star players raising their play for their respective teams. One role player that has seen his production drop to season lows is Dean Wade of the Cavaliers. The prop market recognized this and still he has went under his points prop in four straight games. He even went scoreless in games four and five. This has had nothing to do with Wade shooting poorly, but just not shooting at all. After just three shots in three games, look for Wade to get a few extra looks tonight. Take his over.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 5 and 0 in the playoffs at home, but have not won consecutive postseason games since game two against the Raptors. Each playoff game they seem to have that crucial down stretch, that allows the opponent to surge. Expect Detroit’s bench guards to perform better in game three when they went a combined 4 of 16. At the very least I expect the spread to finally be worthy for the underdog. Grab the points with Detroit.