Larry's Picks (1 Live)
UConn rarely gets to suit up as an underdog, and I think the experienced Huskies will relish that role. Duke has not been as dominant as expected in the postseason. This is a quick turnaround for Caleb Foster after he returned from his foot fracture vs. St. John’s. Look for another Duke game that goes down to the wire.
Tennessee destroyed short-handed Iowa State on the glass 43-22 and shot 51 percent en route to a 14-point win Friday. It will be much tougher to duplicate those feats, or even come close to them, against Michigan. I expect the Vols to struggle with their post-up offense vs. Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson. Right now, Michigan and Arizona are a cut above everyone else. Look for the Wolverines to pull away in the second half.
Both teams are elite offensively, but Arizona is much better on the defensive end. Purdue was fortunate to get past Texas, while the Wildcats are clicking on all cylinders. I would play this up to 6.5.
The Huskies took advantage of a UCLA team that was undermanned inside. That won't be the case against Michigan State, which looks fresh following an early exit from the Big Ten Tournament. The deeper Spartans showed their ceiling down the stretch, beating both Purdue and Illinois. They've been tested by the nation's sixth-toughest schedule. Look for Tom Izzo to improve to 12-5 SU in the Sweet 16.
In last year's NCAA Tournament, Alabama went 25 of 51 from beyond the arc and destroyed BYU 113-88. The Crimson Tide followed that up by losing by 20 to Duke, a game in which Alabama went 8 of 32 from deep. Now Alabama faces top-seeded Michigan in a similar spot, after torching Texas Tech from deep (19 of 42). Shooting treys will be much more difficult against the nation's No. 2 defense, per KenPom. Look for the Wolverines to win by double digits.
The Razorbacks are on an incredible roll, with seven straight wins and an explosive offense led by Darius Acuff. But this is still the same defense that gave up 88 points to High Point, 111 to Florida and 117 to Alabama. Arizona is the more complete team and won't mind playing at a fast pace. Lay the points.
Many are expecting regression from Iowa after the Hawkeyes stunned No. 1 seed Florida. I think Iowa has room to improve, given star guard Bennett Stirtz went 0 for 9 from deep against the Gators. These teams split in the regular season, Iowa winning by five at home and Nebraska winning by nine in overtime in Lincoln. The Hawkeyes won the rebounding battle in both matchups, and they just held their own on the glass against imposing Florida. In a game that should come down to the wire, I took the points.
Auburn has won 66 straight non-conference home games, and that streak likely continues Wednesday vs. Nevada. But this is too many points to give a Wolf Pack team that's finally getting good minutes from 6-10 senior Joel Armotrading (10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks last time out against Liberty). Nevada also should have a coaching edge. Take the points.
Dayton is 14-3 at home and gets to play its first home game in the NIT on Wednesday. The Flyers couldn't use their arena last week due to the First Four. They are as healthy as they've been all year and peaking down the stretch, going 10-2 SU with the only losses coming to VCU. Illinois State comes in making just 32.7 percent of its 3-pointers on the road. Look for the Redbirds to struggle against the bigger Flyers.
Tulsa might be short handed again, and the Shockers won two of three meetings this season. But at home, the Golden Hurricane are nearly unbeatable. Tulsa is a much better free-throw shooting team than Wichita State. That edge paid off last round and it could come into play Tuesday in the NIT quarters.
The Red Raiders own wins over Duke, Arizona and Houston. Even though they remain without JT Toppin, they have enough to get by an Alabama team missing Aden Holloway. Texas Tech excels in transition defense, which will be key in this matchup. The Red Raiders rank third nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and have hit 42.9 percent over their past three games. They've also been just as good of a 3-point shooting team away from home.
St. Joseph’s is 6-2 SU in its last eight road games. The Hawks are excellent on the boards and at defending the 3-point line. They just held Colorado State to 7 of 30 from beyond the arc. Cal is coming off an impressive home win but has had some deflating home performances this season. This should be a very tight game, so grab the points.
Utah State executed down the stretch to beat Villanova, but this is a totally different challenge. Arizona's size will make it tough for the Aggies to do what they usually do, score in the paint. The Wildcats barely broke a sweat against LIU and will demonstrate why they're the second favorite to win it all. The only postseason game Arizona hasn't covered came in the Big 12 semis, when the Wildcats won a virtual road game 82-80 over Iowa State as 2.5-point favorites.
Apologies for the late post, but I jumped on the Rebels despite Tulsa’s 14-2 home record. Tulsa might not be at full strength, and we’ve seen a Josh Pastner team make a magical postseason run before. UNLV owns some impressive road wins and should keep this close.