Georgia has had a key issue over the last three years, where three of their four losses in the regular season or conference championship have been to Alabama. This includes losing to Alabama in week four each of the last two seasons. This is where I expect the Bulldogs to showcase their improved offense that was not their the prior two seasons. They are tops in college football averaging 51 points per game, and will be able to counter an early Bama lead. Tail Georgia.
With the line moving to 2 or 2.5, taking Alabama on the moneyline makes more sense. Georgia has the more recent pedigree under Kirby Smart, and there's no question it boasts a better defense. However, this is a prove-it moment for Kalen DeBoer and Alabama, which is off to a 5-0 start including four victories of 23+ points over Power Four teams. Whether could impact how well the ball gets moved, and I like the Crimson Tide to control the clock in Tuscaloosa.
Weather most certainly could be a factor tonight. Georgia really hasn’t played anyone and you can make the same case for the Bama. With the impending weather looming, this will come down to the defenses, as both offenses have proved they can score in bunches. The Crimson Tide has the better rushing attack and Keelon Russell is the better mobile quarterback to handle Georgia’s defensive pressure.
The biggest difference between these two powerhouses is on the defensive side. Pro Football Focus ranks Georgia third nationally in defensive EPA/play allowed, making the Bulldogs one of the most efficient defenses in college football. Georgia is also seventh in total defense (244.6 yards per game), 12th in scoring defense (13.4 PPG), third in rushing defense (57.4 yards per game), and fourth in yards allowed per play (3.9). Meanwhile, Bama is 51st in scoring defense (20.8), 39th in total defense (312.6 yards per game), and 105th in pass defense (234.0), going up against one of the nation’s most efficient passers in Gunner Stockton.
This total plummeted all week because of the weather forecast, but even if the worst of the rain won't impact the game itself, it's still going to be windy as all hell, and that never helps with scoring.
I have Georgia ranked No. 3 and Alabama ranked No. 8, five points apart, and Alabama gets six points for home field, but we have to cut it down because Georgia is better. Georgia should be the slight favorite. Both teams are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS and 5-0 to the over. Just 10 years ago, Alabama and LSU would play an epic SEC game at 10-0, but that's not Bama or UGA's style this year. Alabama has scored 45 points or more in every single game this season. They come at you hard and fast, and you're down by 3 touchdowns before you even know what happened. Georgia has scored 38 points or more in their games. The total is 10 points cheap.
I see Mike Tierney is thinking what I was. Both offenses have been lights out so far, but with that tropical storm/hurricane possibly affecting Tuscaloosa on Saturday night (better there than here), there could be rain and 20-30 mph winds. That's if the game isn't postponed, which is possible. Georgia is allowing just 13.7 PPG so Tide QB Keelon Russell might get a bit of a wake-up call. Our model has only 45 points scored. Certainly may go Under if it were 75 and sunny, so I'm fine either way but hope there's weather.
This number has sunk four points since a dire weather forecast was circulated. It could travel farther south. The teams are gearing up for hurricane-like conditions, including heavy rain and winds in the mid-20s. While Bama's offense has been uber-impressive, Georgia's defense ranks a lofty seventh in FBS. The Bulldogs' offense has rung up points but lacks the dynamism of previous iterations.
