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Gators bounce back with home game vs. fading South Carolina

Narratives can change on a dime in college football. Florida State looked dead and buried after back-to-back losses to SMU and Alabama. Then they blew out Central Arkansas and Virginia by a combined 72-14 score. Meanwhile, Louisville lost on a walk-off FG to #9 Ole Miss and then had impressive wins over Villanova and SMU before losing to Wake Forest and NC State the last two weeks, changing the narrative on the Cardinals' chances in the ACC as well.  The Seminoles generated havoc plays on 26% of Virginia's offensive snaps. Following its 10-sack performance against Virginia, FSU jumped 80 spots nationally in sack rate (101st to 21st) and 43 spots in yards allowed per carry (84th to 41st).

This is just a mismatch of statistical profiles. UTSA is averaging 37.8 points and 460.8 yards per game, while Rice is allowing 30.3 points and 426.5 yards. UTSA also just put up 59 points and 638 yards against Colorado State. The Roadrunners have +0.22 EPA/play — 35th nationally, with the Rice defense: +0.17 EPA/play allowed — 112th nationally. There's also a Rice offensive problem that helps when laying double digits. Rice is scoring only 19.0 PPG (126th) and averaging 5.0 yards/play. The Owls have scored 20 or fewer in three of four games. Last year, UTSA won this 61-13.

South Carolina’s statistical profile is a picture-perfect example of misleading statistics. The out-of-conference wins over Kent State and FCS Towson by a combined 102-9 overshadow a 0-2 SEC start that includes blowing a 16-0 lead at home vs. Mississippi State and getting blown out by Alabama. After an early 16-0 lead over Mississippi State two weeks ago, South Carolina has been outscored 80-36 in 6.5 quarters since. They rank 15th of 16 SEC teams in defensive EPA/play allowed in conference play. Kentucky, behind C.J. Baxter and Jason Patterson in the backfield, has a 52.0% rushing success rate and is 30th in the nation at 203.5 rush yards per game. Outside of a disastrous second half against Alabama, the Wildcats have played great an upset A&M.

New Mexico has been a pleasant surprise this year, losing 14-6 to Oklahoma on the road and beating other three opponents 150-32. The Lobos are 8th in scoring defense, 15th in total defense, and 15th in rush defense. They held Oklahoma to 14, the same OU team that beat UTEP 51-0 if you are comparing. But what I really like about this defense is that they rank 2nd in producing Havoc. They lead the nation in turnover margin +14, with the most Interceptions in the country (9) and forcing the 3rd-most forced fumbles. UTEP's awful offense also plays into this pick. They are dead last (138th) in EPA/play, 124th in success rate, 137th in plays/game, 133rd in total yards (265.3) and 127th in scoring (18.8).

Florida's offense continues to put up numbers with 44+ points in all four games this season and 50+ in three of four. They are 2nd in nation in score (53.8), 5th in yards (532.8) and have the leading RB in Jadan Baugh. We've also seen the defense give up 39 to Auburn and 28 to Ole Miss and 21 to FAU. Missouri is 126th nationally in explosiveness allowed, which means they won't be able to stop Florida. allowed 514 yards, including 360 in the air, and 6.44 yards per play to Mississippi State last week, all season highs.

One of the bigger surprises of the season is QB Kamario Taylor and the Mississippi Bulldogs, who continue to pile up points and are 4-0. Taylor is 6th in the country in passing efficiency. The passing game is averaging 9.8 yards per attempt and is 13th in the country at 315.5 passing yards per game. Overall, Miss State is 4th in the nation, piling up 533.2 per game and 15th in scoring at 43.0 per game. Alabama is right there with the Bulldogs as one of the top offenses in the country, fourth in points (48.0, with 45+ in each game) and 24th in yards. Keelon Russell is leading the way, 19th in passing yards at 282.25 per game.

Two undefeated SEC teams meet in Starkville, Mississippi, with two exciting QBs: Missouri’s Austin Simmons and Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor. Simmons has a 218.32 passer rating through three games, second in the SEC, and threw for 292 yards and three TDs in a road win at rival Kansas. He struggled last week against Troy, however, throwing for only 91 yards. Now Simmons faces a Mississippi State defense that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in both pressures and sacks. In contrast, Missouri ranks second in the country in pass protection, according to Pro Football Focus. The Bulldogs’ defense is also 73rd in EPA per pass and allowed South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers to throw for 282 yards and 2 TDs last week.

Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 at 528.0 yards per game, including 306.3 passing and 221.7 rushing. West Virginia is at 458.3 yards/game and leads the conference with 281.3 rushing yards/game. Both are also efficient on a per-play basis: Oklahoma State 6.5 yards/play, WVU 6.7. WVU's defense is one of the worst in the conference, allowing:365.7 yards allowed/game, second-worst in the Big 12, including 246.7 passing yards/game. Despite facing an FCS opponent in Week 2, the Mountaineers are 114th in pass defense, 76th in coverage, and 95th in passes of 30-plus yards allowed.

Florida continues to ride its new explosive offense to high-scoring wins, scoring 44+ points and 495+ yards in all three wins this season. The Gators' 54.0 points per game is second in the nation behind rival Georgia, while its 544.3 yards per game is third. Most notably, RB Jadan Baugh is second in the nation in rushing at 152.7 yards per game and tied for the lead with 8 TDs. He goes up against an Ole Miss defense that has had problems stopping the run, allowing 159 rushing yards/game and 4.1 yards per carry. This is only the 5th time since 1978 that a top-5 team is an underdog to a team not ranked in the top twenty. The lower-ranked favorite is 4-0 ATS.

Georgia 3-0 ATS, covering by over 8 points per game. The Bulldogs offensive numbers: lead county in scoring (59.3) and yards per play margin (+5.6), and are , 4th in yards per game (539.0). QB Gunner Stockton has been great and gives them a real star back there. He leads the nation in passing efficiency (259.6),  QBR (94.8), and yards per attempt (13.0) and is second in completion pct (84.4) Georgia's defense is also among the best in the country, leading the nation in yards per play allowed (2.52), while Oklahoma offense has struggled mightily: 115th at only 329.7 yards per game, 123rd in rushing, 108th in EPA/play (+0.050) and 116th in time of possession. And that's with a 51-0 win over UTEP.

The Hawkeyes’ defense is the best in the country in scoring (4.3 PPG) and yards allowed (176.7), allowing 13 total points this season. Granted, two of the games were vs. NIU and Northern Iowa, but they also beat rival Iowa State. The key is RB Kamari Moulton, who Coach Kirk Ferentz is optimistic will play. Iowa has also shown an offense this season, averaging 477 yards and 268 rushing yards a game. The matchup could be decided at the line of scrimmage, where Iowa enters averaging 7.4 yards per carry. The offense remains a major issue for the undefeated Wolverines, who average 27.3 points per game (91st in the country) and are 90th in the nation in rush offense.

34.5 is a big number for Texas Tech and Sam Houston State  might be 1-2, but 3-0 ATS, covering by 19 points per game, the best in the country. They lost by 3 to Troy and 6 to Tulsa in FBS games, averaging 454.3 yards and 6.5 yards per play. Red Raiders struggled vs. Abilene Christian and Oregon State, before surviving Houston last week. The Beavers outgained them by 120 yards and the Cougars outgained them last week. They are 0-3 vs. the spread, missing by 13.8 points, which is fifth-worst in the country..