I liked the Mustangs in this matchup even before the Seminoles struggled closing out New Mexico State in last week's ugly 34-17 win. SMU enters the season with continuity at the most important positions. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is one of the winningest and most prolific signal callers in the country (18-6 over the last two seasons). Over that time, he has passed for 6,886 yards (third in the FBS) and 49 touchdowns (tied for eighth). He has four starters back on the offensive line, led by All-ACC tackle PJ Williams. With a front-loaded schedule, Mustangs coach Rhett Lashlee knew his team did not have time to ease into the season. He will have his team ready for tonight.
Florida State won the first three games last season, including defeating Alabama in the first game, but they only finished 5-7. They've got a new quarterback this season in Ashton Daniels, but I feel like the Seminoles are going to experience the same type of inconsistent play that he had at Auburn and Stanford. They struggled with New Mexico State last week but still won 34-17 as 30-point favorites. SMU plays its first season in the ACC and has senior quarterback Kevin Jennings running the show and leading them to the playoffs. SMU might win the ACC this year while Florida State looks for another QB. SMU to cover.
Even with FSU having played in Week 0 -- and even with SMU coach Rhett Lashlee opining that the Seminoles should be favorites by at least a touchdown -- let's side with the Mustangs. The 'Noles were unimpressive in a 17-point win, outgaining New Mexico State by a mere 100 yards. SMU welcomes back most of its offensive production. QB Kevin Jennings has accumulated 20 wins with the 'Stangs, including a demolishing of FSU two years ago, and should be in the early Heisman Trophy picture. The O-Line is loaded with NFL prospects. Until the 'Noles reverse their ATS trend -- 2-8 in the last 10 games -- they can't be trusted.
This is our only 3.5 for the Labor Day night matchup from Tally, and I'm not sure if the other books will follow suit (some are still at 2.5) so we'll go today. While I'm enjoying the Noles being terrible the past couple of years, I just don't believe they are this bad with all that Sunshine State talent on the roster. Ideally this comes down to the wire and SMU wins it on a field goal as time expires, but our model has FSU winning. The Noles do have the advantage of a Week 0 game under their belts. Have to say, though, that none of the experts at the Noles 247 site have them covering so that's not ideal. I wouldn't go lower.
Florida State was only up 17-10 at the break over a bad New Mexico State team, ranked 123rd in SP+ last season. The Aggies started an FCS transfer, who threw all over FSU's secondary. The SMU Mustangs are ranked in top-25 in returning production, including QB Kevin Jennings, who is going to love this FSU defense. And they bring back 3/5ths of the OL. The SMU's defense is strong against the rush (12th in EPA per rush), which is what the Noles like to do.
Many football observers are down on FSU’s trajectory following a relatively lackluster performance in its 34-17 win over New Mexico State, and the seat is getting warmer under Mike Norvell. The spread moved 1-1.5 points as a result, but this could be one of the better spots to back the Seminoles. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings might be the best offensive player in this game, but a hand injury sidelined him for much of the preseason. Moreover, he and the Mustangs have been erratic, especially early. Last year, they started 2-2, with losses to Baylor and TCU, before surging down the stretch. We’ll chomp down on our mouthpiece and take the points with a vulnerable but viable home underdog to close out Week 1.
I could be wrong on the extent of Kevin Jennings’ injury, but what I saw from Florida State’s defense doesn’t warrant the Seminoles being anywhere near a three-point underdog. I’m staying away from the spread and taking SMU moneyline. Florida State’s secondary was absolutely torched, and Jennings is one of the most prolific passers in College Football when healthy. On the other side, Ashton Daniels fell back into the same bad habits we saw at Stanford and Auburn. He held the ball too long, and the offensive line didn’t hold up nearly as well as I expected. Florida State is still a team in decline. SMU is better coached, more talented, and simply the better team. Give me the Mustangs moneyline.
