Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
I planned to stay far away from this CBI after going 0-2 yesterday but stuck to half units because you just never know who will play or not in these minor events. But I am reading that one of FGCU's best players, All-ASUN first-team forward Keeshawn Kellman (13.8 PPG, team-best 7.5 RPG), twisted his ankle in yesterday's win over Army. I'm assuming that's why he was limited to 19 minutes when all the other starters played at least 26. I have no clue if he's playing or not but if not then I certainly like Cleveland State -- which is probably better anyways. CSU had zero trouble shaking off the rust yesterday with a rout of Queens, and all the Vikings' main guys played.
I hate to initiate some kind of Mission Impossible "Curse Protocol" by following a handful of other experts on Queens, but after watching the other two teams from this CBI today who played Sunday against two teams who haven't played for weeks ... there sure seems to be a massive disadvantage for those clubs who had all that time off. That's all this is because Cleveland State was the better team in the regular season. But so was overly rested Jacksonville in the first CBI game today vs. Incarnate Word, and JU got spanked.
CBI game from Daytona Beach so not too far from Jacksonville, but I don't exactly expect more than 50 people in the gym for a noon CBI game on a Monday. The Cardinals, who were under .500 in Southland play, beat Manhattan yesterday to advance. The Dolphins, 12-6 in ASUN play, last took the court on March 6. KenPom ranks JU about 60 spots better. Probably be some rust but there's little doubt in my mind it was the better team during the season led by first team All-ASUN pick Robert McCray V. But after like three-plus weeks, guys might have already transferred out for all I know. But we can't turn down a Monday afternoon game, can we?
True home game in the NIT's second round for North Texas, which has just one loss in Denton all season. UNT is in the NIT for a fourth straight year and 8-2 in it. The Mean Green aren't very good offensively but again one of the nation's top defensive clubs. Sunday marks the first time the two former conference rivals have played one another since 2013 and the first time they’ve met in a non-conference (regular season or postseason) matchup since 1978. The Mean Green play in the much tougher conference now in the AAC compared to A-State's Sun Belt. UNT guard Atin Wright and forward Brenen Lorient were both named first-team All-AAC.
UCLA looked fantastic in Round 1 but this should be mostly a pro-Tennessee crowd on Saturday night in Lexington -- will be weird seeing all that orange there. Offense can come and go for any club,but with the Vols you pretty much can always be assured a terrific defensive effort. The Bruins are certainly no slouches on that end but UT is ranked No. 5 overall nationally by KenPom and UCLA No. 22. The Vols should have the best offensive player on the floor in Chaz Lanier, who is close to setting a single-season school record in 3-pointers made. Our model and many I've checked have UT by about five.
Yep, Moneyline Matt is at it again. But I've finally stopped crying -- and ordered a baby goat online -- after the Severance season 2 finale. So good. I'm obviously different than most on here. I go look for who wins first, cycle through and see if value. I had a hard-a** dad who always taught me to win. So it may bleed over to gambling (think Emilio in Breakfast Club). Then I go back and see if an underdog has value. I destroyed Gonzaga ML vs. Georgia in Round 1, but it was too high to post on here. This is bordering on too high, but maybe the worst Gonzaga team in years and perhaps the best Houston one.
I am thoroughly enjoying all these Division II transfers on Drake kicking DI/power conference tail as a former brief small-college player myself. And the Bulldogs are doing it defensively. Which makes me think this is a fair amount too high. Expect TTU to advance but neither team may have 8 points by the second media timeout of the first half. Tough to cover a number like this in a rock fight. Also the fact one of TTU's best players, Chance McMillian (14.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG), may be out again. He has missed the past two-plus. Love the Drake ... but not enough to buy him a TV (oh man, I'm George/Larry David).
One historical trend is on the line here as a First Four team has won a game in the R64 every year but one. I thought that team would be North Carolina, but the Heels woke up too late against Ole Miss. Why I think this trend might be relevant is the rust/rest thing. Xavier obviously had to rally Wednesday to advance, but Illinois hasn't played in a week and looked horrible last Friday in losing to Maryland. When two of your best three players are freshmen ... I don't trust freshmen-dominated teams this time of year. Carmelo was the one-off and so was "Never Nervous" Pervis Ellison. They were separated like by 20 years, so it's rare.
I believe zero chance UConn threepeats but think the Huskies are still miles more talented than Oklahoma, which snuck in with a 6-12 SEC mark -- yeah, let's expand the field again. And I'm certainly not going to bet against a Dan Hurley team this time of year until its clearly out-talented. Sooners senior forward Sam Godwin (6.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) hasn't played since March 5 due to injury and not clear yet if he will be back. Godwin is Oklahoma’s only starter taller than 6-6, and this team ranks 325th in rebounding.
I had UNC to the Sweet 16 from the First Four, as while you can definitely make a case that the Heels shouldn't have gotten into the Dance, they still have a Top 10 roster in the country in terms of talent/upside. And that was on display Tuesday in trashing San Diego State. Not only that, the committee -- chaired by UNC AD Bubba Cunningham -- didn't make Carolina turn around and play Thursday like it should have considering it was in a Tuesday First Four game. It just all seems to be setting up nicely for Hubert Davis' bunch. And a First Four team has won a R64 game every year but one.
KenPom ranks WCC regular-season champion Saint Mary's at No. 22 nationally and SEC at-large Vanderbilt at No. 49 for this East Region game from Cleveland. I'm very high on the Gaels and the only thing I don't really like about this matchup is the location and start time, but otherwise I believe they have the far more talented roster -- and a lot of size (No. 1 nationally in rebounding margin). Even the Tennessean beat writer has picked SMC by five, so who am I to argue? Just getting here is a "win" for Vandy in its first Dance trip since 2017.
I absolutely win either way here. Personally, I'd be giddy if hated Michigan was ousted immediately, and UC San Diego (on a 15-game winning streak) has been awesome this season in winning the Big West regular-season and conference tournament titles. But the Tritons' toughest non-conference game was San Diego State and they lost that. The Wolverines seem to have re-found their groove in winning the Big Ten Tournament and can smother UCSD with size. Cheap price in my opinion even if I'm rooting for the underdog halfway.
Kansas has been a massive disappointment but is still mega-talented and has a ton of Big Dance experience led by All-American big man Hunter Dickinson. I tend to think the dominates the paint with Hogs top big man and leading scorer/rebounder Adou Thiero out. Arkansas will get back touted freshman guard Boogie Fland for the first time since Jan. 18 but sounds like he will be very limited in terms of minutes. Kansas is 37-2 in its past 39 first-round games. Our model has KU by five.