I don't generally follow the public or care what it is doing, but I just got the DK trends for today's NCAA Tournament early games and Akron is taking by far the most underdog money. I believe the Zips were the best team in the MAC and would have beaten Miami of Ohio in the conference title game had the RedHawks gotten there. TTU is just not the same without injured All-American JT Toppin. Tempted to play Akron ML as I almost did on Miami the other night. But that's my luck these days, had it written and talked myself out of it. Self: Shut up.

Well heavens to Betsy, I won a college hoops game. Who is Betsy by the way? No idea. What a super-fun early afternoon of NCAA Tournament action. And I have a shred of confidence back after a brutal month-plus with South Florida rallying to cover against Louisville. So let's just roll that into this -- I tend to always follow Saint Mary's a bit and not really sure why. Probably like watching them in those late-night games in the WCC and the fact I'm Catholic, I suppose. This will be all about tempo. If the game is in the high 70s, the Aggies will win. If not, it will be the Gaels. KenPom has them rated 17 spots higher.

Feel like I have to take this as it's the last 5.5 on our board with star Mikel Brown Jr. ruled out for Louisville. Not a shock, but it dropped the number at most books. I worked in Tampa for many years so I know a little about USF. Commuter school that usually never lives up to its promise but hit a grand slam luring coach Bryan Hodgson from Arky State. He already has turned down Syracuse. What year is this? Someone turned down Syracuse for USF, whose claim to hoops fame in my lifetime is probably Chucky Atkins. The Bulls have one loss in their past 15. I was doing well on college hoops until about mid-February and then the wheels fell off.

Been an awful six weeks or so in college hoops, just utterly backward. But at least now I don't have to worry about teams' motivation as we try to salvage the year. Lehigh has been pretty decent to me this campaign, and I certainly rank the Patriot League above Prairie View's SWAC. And the Panthers were just eighth in the SWAC before storming to the conference tournament title. They played 13 non-con games and went 5-8. Four of those wins were over non-Division I programs.

Ivy League Tournament on Saturday from Ithaca. These teams split in the regular season but I'm on Harvard because Quakers star, leading scorer and second-team All-Ivy pick Ethan Roberts is out for the event due to concussion symptoms. In the two RS games vs. Harvard, he averaged 24.0 points and 4.0 rebounds.

This seems a bit light to me, granted that records aren't everything. But Morgan State finished second in the MEAC at 10-4 and Delaware State last at at 2-12. The Bears closed winning 10 of 12, swept the season series and KenPom ranks them 10 spots higher -- both among the worst nationally. The 1-2 punch of All-MEAC picks Alfred Worrell Jr. and Elijah Davis, both transfers, should be enough for Morgan State to bring this home. DSU ranks No. 3 in the MEAC in defense but last in scoring (61.0 PPG) and in 3-pointers per game (4.8). Morgan State is No. 2 in 3-point defense.

ASUN quarterfinal from Jacksonville. I'm simply going to bet chronologically today -- if not logically -- and see how it goes. I believe this is 50 cents or so too low. KenPom ranks Lipscomb at No. 178 nationally and FGCU at 263. I am not "Beautiful Mind" math-wise but that seems like a wide discrepancy. The Bisons -- makes my grammar skin crawl, but there is a fun little story behind the plural -- won both RS meetings quite easily and has taken the past five overall vs. FGCU. The Eagles had to play Wednesday to advance, beating league doormat North Alabama, but generally not a good team away from Fort Myers.

Welp, I'm getting that Iona back. Look, if KenPom can't get the right teams ranked correctly, I sure as heck don't have the time to grade all these Division I teams. This is high (should be at least -250 imo), but Fairfield is miles better than Manhattan. That clearly does not always matter. I'll bet to win on this: 2 units. Not a chase. I had it in the queue just in case. Was hoping to double up on the MAAC. .... Again, KenPom ranks our team nearly 70 spots higher. Sigh.

MAAC Tournament from Atlantic City. Iona finished a game up on Sacred Heart in the RS standings and won at SH by 12 in December in the lone meeting. KenPom ranks the Gaels nearly 50 spots higher. Sometimes it is helpful in these neutral-site tourneys to check a team's road ATS numbers even though it's obviously not a true away game: Iona was 9-5 ATS away and Sacred Heart 8-10 ATS. The Gaels are Top 50 nationally in three-pointers made and three-point defense. They have made 10 or more three-pointers in 16 games and at least eight in eight others. This should probably be closer to -180.

Guess doing a Detroit 7 ET double -- back in college days that would mean eating a Domino's large AND a Little Caesars large in one sitting. Easy at the time, rough the next morning, probably fatal today. ... It's so hard to beat the same team three times in one college hoops season, but maybe Detroit (2-0 in the season series, taking each by at least six) is just better than Milwaukee, and it finished four games higher in the Horizon. This is a true home game (or no). KenPom has the Titans 33 spots higher. Our model has them by 3 but Torvik by 7.6 and Haslem by 6. I don't mind models now because they have a season full of numbers.

Quick turnaround road double for BYU, which didn't look good Saturday in West Virginia and as everyone has noted has fallen apart without Richie Saunders. The Cougs will have the best player in the floor in AJ Dybantsa, but perhaps the next four belong to the Bearcats in their home finale. I am well aware I am the fourth capper on this -- not sure if Larry, Bruce, Thomas and myself have ever been wrong on the same game before. First time for everything .... but my luck is simply due to change on college hoops. Math says it has to. Also am covered in four-leaf clovers (they itch). UC is playing its best ball of the season and could use the NCAA resume boost.

Well, I'm ready for this sport to devastate me in a newer, funner way Monday from the Big Sky. This feels light. EWU has won eight in a row and is tied for second in the league standings, so it has conference tournament seeding reasons to care. Plus, the home finale. Seven seniors will be honored. Just no reason at all for Idaho to care as it is locked into the No. 7 seed for the Big Sky Tournament -- in Idaho. I mean, this all looks so obvious for the Eagles, but we certainly know college basketball doesn't often work that way. I see Thomas Casale is on the play so that makes me feel better. Sorry for joining Tom :)

Unfortunately, the breaks did not go our way in some earlier Horizon League games or I was going to bet NKU a dangerous amount. Now just the 1.5 unit (bet to win), and I'm definitely gun-shy as college basketball has been beating me like I touched its drumset (the left one has a chip in it). What's a de-exorcism? Do I have to watch "Full House" on a loop for 24 hours? (Pass). I just don't get why Wichita State would play any regulars much and risk injury with the conference title wrapped up. And show strategy to a possible tournament opponent. I hate tanking but this would not be that. It would be silly to go all-out.

I am frighteningly cold in this sport and plan to kinda hold back a few days and wait for some concrete injury news -- helped on Buffalo-Akron yesterday, anyways. But I will jump here because I love these a.m. standalone games. Bucknell has lost five straight and nine of 11 and has played without two key frontcourt guys for several games in Ruot Bijiek and Grgur Brcic. Didn't wake up today thinking I'd be typing names like that. Doesn't appear available today looking at live lineups. The Bison are 4-11 away. It's the home finale for Army, which appears to be healthy.

Georgetown has lost four straight but all close. Marquette has dropped three in a row and is last in the Big East. It lost at home to GU, 78-69 on Dec. 17, and the Hoyas didn't have 7-footer Vince Iwuchukwu then but do now. He's averaging 11.1 points, 5.6 boards and 1.0 blocks. With twin 7-footer Julius Halaifonua, the Hoyas should dominate Marquette down low. That pretty much happened in that first matchup. GU hasn't won at home vs. MU since February 2017. Every model I check has the Hoyas by at least five (ours by nine). So does KenPom. Marquette has not won a single road game (which makes me a tad nervous now). This feels like a generous price forcing my hand.