Matt's Past Picks
Well, Saturday wasn't a heck of a lot of fun from a collegiate perspective. New day. Saint Mary's is an excellent club, but I'm rather curious why the Gaels would even schedule this trip across country for a one-off against a mid-major. Davidson is a super quality program as well but can't imagine pays that much to visit. SMC did just get smashed last time out against Vandy. This is the Gaels' first true road game, too. Just all seems trappish to me. The 'Cats rank eighth in the nation in bench points per game because they go nine deep in each. And it's obviously the chance for a signature win on the resume.
Need to get that Cleveland State stink off me quickly. Only the second road game for WSU, which lost the other and has lost three in a row to DI opponents overall. UNI is 5-0 at home and yet again defensively dominant. It leads the country in scoring defense at 55.4 points allowed per game and also in the top-20 in three-point percentage defense (.261) and in field goal percentage defense (.362). The Panthers lead the MVC in assist/turnover ratio (1.88) and rank second with 17.1 assists per game. A White Out game. It's December in Cedar Falls. A White Out is the social event of the month if not year. I see Bruce Marshall is on UNI so that makes me feel better.
Very fair price if not a little low in my opinion. Detroit Mercy comes off a game vs. IU Indy, which I think matters because that club plays so up-tempo you'd think the Titans might be a little out of gas at some point today, although I remember feeling invincible in college physically. Up til 4 am playing video games and hammered but basketball at 9 a.m.? No problem. Ramen shooter at 8:45 a.m. Now if I'm up until midnight I'm practically blind for a week. The Vikings get to the free-throw line more than any Horizon League team as it is and home teams generally get the benefit of whistles.
I may have Tourette syndrome but I simply like saying Quinnipiac. It's sorta my Larry David/Richard Lewis mantra ("Jaya"). It's 5:47 am and I'm pretty sure my wife made spaghetti with five-week old Costco meat so I might be delirious (hi giraffe), but this seems a good 2-3 points low/use your ML skills to figure that out. Obviously I don't care about the spread but still. Iona is 111-31 (.782) in MAAC contests at the Hynes Center in its last 142 games. And that's really all this is. Iona ranks No. 18 in DI 3-point percentage defense and No. 28 in 3-point percentage. The Gaels are the only team in the country to rank in the top 40 in both. I love small-school game notes.
I bet 98.275% of the time to make bank. But there are occasional times I am like, huh, and just do it for my own personal enjoyment. Not sure I would say for fun but because something perplexed me. I like saying perplexed because it reminds of Lex Luthor but that's a different story and I am still obviously 12. Ah 12. Superman lunch box, PB&J with the crusts cut off and fruit roll-ups. Did it get better? Although the thought of milk makes me wanna gag. Funny how tastes change. This? I absolutely believe Gonzaga is better. But 5.5? Have to say I thought this was in Lexington. Most of the skeds say that. It's in Nashville. My bad. I am still fine.
Short slate Thursday, and the Big West opener for both. Don't put a ton of credence into preseason polls but don't pretend to know the Big West that well. CSUN was picked fifth and CS Bakersfield 10th. Way too many CS for me to keep track of. Next on "CSI: Bakersfield": An illegal tickle fight. I don't know the demographics or crime stats of Bakersfield, sorry. If I end up there in life, I made a wrong turn. I do think this closes near -200 unless I'm missing a Matadors injury, etc., but I don't see one. CSUN newcomers Joshua O'Garro and Josiah Davis top the Big West in rebounding and assists, respectively. The teams split the season series last year, each winning at home.
I no longer look at models for sides, but I'm "totals challenged" so then I do need to look. None have this approaching this sky-high number and it has been going up all morning (think it peaked here). The closest I've seen is 173 and that was an outlier number. Most are in the mid-160s and ours has 164. More and more teams are playing fast -- both these two rank Top 15 in tempo -- because it's a better recruiting tool than, say, playing at Virginia when Tony Bennett used to coach and the Wahoos often had games in the 50s. The hosts sit 204th nationally in points per possession and Cal Poly 275th. So they play fast but not necessarily efficient.
KenPom ranks Monmouth 32 spots higher. The Hawks have played a pretty tough schedule and this is only their third at home, where they are 2-0. They rank 13th in blocks per game, averaging 5.9. Believe we won fading Princeton earlier this season and the Tigers are winless away including neutral sites. Leading scorer and playmaker Dalen Davis hasn't played in a couple of weeks due to an ankle injury. I'll just have to hope he sits again. Last year Princeton defeated the Hawks 71-67, but did so led by star Xaivian Lee, who dropped 23 points, six rebounds and six assists. He's now at Florida. Davis had 11 points.
SIUE is the better team, but we were in this same spot last night at nearly the same spread and the underdog won outright. Not predicting that for North Florida, but this feels 3-4 points high. The Ospreys are 2-0 at home and hit triple digits in both, granted against nobody competition. SIU is the defending OVC champion but lost a fair amount off that club and is 2-2 away. The Cougars lead the OVC in field goal percent defense at .370 and are second in allowing 65.9 PPG. So it will be interesting to see which style dictates play here as usually that's the home club. Second-leading SIU scorer and top rebounder Myles Thompson has missed the past two. Not sure why.
McNeese State is the defending Southland champion and favored to repeat, but Incarnate Word is not too bad -- picked to finish sixth. It's the league opener for both. UIW's Davion Bailey (20 ppg) and Tahj Staveskie (19.1 ppg) lead the Southland in scoring and Harold Woods leads in total rebounds (59). You'd think this is the biggest home game of the year. UIW played Indiana pretty tough a few weeks ago in Bloomington and scored a school-record-tying 117 points last time out against some nobody foe. The only loss for McNeese State was its lone road game at Santa Clara. This simply feels 3-4 points high.
Not my favorite play ever, but anytime I can make an Elon play I am game. And this is a true home game. Although I am guessing my Twitter (I will never, ever call it X) will get hacked/suspended if I don't back the Fighting Musks. Actually, they are the Phoenix (Musks might be better) and should have the best player on the floor in Chandler Cuthrell, who is second in the CAA and 11th nationally at 22.7 points per game. Cuthrell is the only player in the CAA with two 20-point, 10-rebound performances this season. Home team + best player = yes. Doesn't always work that way, but generally a winning strategy.
See a lot of people asking in Discord why am I playing moneylines on everything. I have enough stress in life not to get angry at a backdoor ATS bust would be the biggest reason. Not laziness. Sometimes I have to win/bet 1.5 times to profit and that's fine. I trust my abilities and usually pair things off-site to make a decent price. No need here at a very reasonable number that I think is 30 cents low. Certainly not an Arky State expert, but I looked at the Red Wolves for Monday vs. Jacksonville State and wish I had jumped as they won easy. This is a true home game in Jonesboro, although I'm not sure being in Jonesboro is ever a life advantage.
I certainly don't know everything or close to anything -- as my wife likes to constantly remind -- but man I love our Discord people. I got talked into this one; well, check that, I don't get talked into anything I don't want to do, but Lilhaiti alerted me to this and I went and looked and it does seem high. Weird start time after a night in the Bahamas? I know I'd be sluggish, among other adjectives (none good, but that's what pool bars and omelette stations are for). And VCU is always excellent defensively regardless. Half unit. #breakfastatnassau
Happy Thanksgiving! Again, thought I was done but two things happened. My father-in-law I overheard what the wife's inheritance might be. I may actually upgrade from Ramen to Dinty Moore Beef Stew in my elder years :) So we clearly aren't talking millions here. The second is that I cleaned up on Creighton earlier today and, frankly, if you give me 100% player availability I will clean up most times. Just want the information and then if I lose, that's on me. And really that's all this is as the Gophers are down a few guys led by starting big Robert Vaihola (5.0 PPG on 70% from field, 7.6 RPG).
Richmond is gonna scorch me from this morning and I had no plans to play another game today. But now I'm gonna try and get that $$ back on Creighton simply as stellar Oregon center Nate Bittle (16.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.3 BPG) is listed out on the Big Ten injury report. The Bluejays haven't looked great in Vegas but this is a massive -- as in 7-foot -- break. Gotta take advantage.
