Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
KenPom ranks Monmouth 32 spots higher. The Hawks have played a pretty tough schedule and this is only their third at home, where they are 2-0. They rank 13th in blocks per game, averaging 5.9. Believe we won fading Princeton earlier this season and the Tigers are winless away including neutral sites. Leading scorer and playmaker Dalen Davis hasn't played in a couple of weeks due to an ankle injury. I'll just have to hope he sits again. Last year Princeton defeated the Hawks 71-67, but did so led by star Xaivian Lee, who dropped 23 points, six rebounds and six assists. He's now at Florida. Davis had 11 points.
SIUE is the better team, but we were in this same spot last night at nearly the same spread and the underdog won outright. Not predicting that for North Florida, but this feels 3-4 points high. The Ospreys are 2-0 at home and hit triple digits in both, granted against nobody competition. SIU is the defending OVC champion but lost a fair amount off that club and is 2-2 away. The Cougars lead the OVC in field goal percent defense at .370 and are second in allowing 65.9 PPG. So it will be interesting to see which style dictates play here as usually that's the home club. Second-leading SIU scorer and top rebounder Myles Thompson has missed the past two. Not sure why.
McNeese State is the defending Southland champion and favored to repeat, but Incarnate Word is not too bad -- picked to finish sixth. It's the league opener for both. UIW's Davion Bailey (20 ppg) and Tahj Staveskie (19.1 ppg) lead the Southland in scoring and Harold Woods leads in total rebounds (59). You'd think this is the biggest home game of the year. UIW played Indiana pretty tough a few weeks ago in Bloomington and scored a school-record-tying 117 points last time out against some nobody foe. The only loss for McNeese State was its lone road game at Santa Clara. This simply feels 3-4 points high.
Not my favorite play ever, but anytime I can make an Elon play I am game. And this is a true home game. Although I am guessing my Twitter (I will never, ever call it X) will get hacked/suspended if I don't back the Fighting Musks. Actually, they are the Phoenix (Musks might be better) and should have the best player on the floor in Chandler Cuthrell, who is second in the CAA and 11th nationally at 22.7 points per game. Cuthrell is the only player in the CAA with two 20-point, 10-rebound performances this season. Home team + best player = yes. Doesn't always work that way, but generally a winning strategy.
See a lot of people asking in Discord why am I playing moneylines on everything. I have enough stress in life not to get angry at a backdoor ATS bust would be the biggest reason. Not laziness. Sometimes I have to win/bet 1.5 times to profit and that's fine. I trust my abilities and usually pair things off-site to make a decent price. No need here at a very reasonable number that I think is 30 cents low. Certainly not an Arky State expert, but I looked at the Red Wolves for Monday vs. Jacksonville State and wish I had jumped as they won easy. This is a true home game in Jonesboro, although I'm not sure being in Jonesboro is ever a life advantage.
I certainly don't know everything or close to anything -- as my wife likes to constantly remind -- but man I love our Discord people. I got talked into this one; well, check that, I don't get talked into anything I don't want to do, but Lilhaiti alerted me to this and I went and looked and it does seem high. Weird start time after a night in the Bahamas? I know I'd be sluggish, among other adjectives (none good, but that's what pool bars and omelette stations are for). And VCU is always excellent defensively regardless. Half unit. #breakfastatnassau
Happy Thanksgiving! Again, thought I was done but two things happened. My father-in-law I overheard what the wife's inheritance might be. I may actually upgrade from Ramen to Dinty Moore Beef Stew in my elder years :) So we clearly aren't talking millions here. The second is that I cleaned up on Creighton earlier today and, frankly, if you give me 100% player availability I will clean up most times. Just want the information and then if I lose, that's on me. And really that's all this is as the Gophers are down a few guys led by starting big Robert Vaihola (5.0 PPG on 70% from field, 7.6 RPG).
Richmond is gonna scorch me from this morning and I had no plans to play another game today. But now I'm gonna try and get that $$ back on Creighton simply as stellar Oregon center Nate Bittle (16.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.3 BPG) is listed out on the Big Ten injury report. The Bluejays haven't looked great in Vegas but this is a massive -- as in 7-foot -- break. Gotta take advantage.
Let's get this is in as I think it's about 30 cents light from Disney. Value is value, no matter where. Let's just win in the a.m. and move on. Tryptophan and all that. I heard some rumor I am supposed to rake the yard in the morning. I'll give 45/1 odds against that. The Spiders have looked really good so far. Deep club that ranks second in Division I in bench points per game at 48.0 and is outrebounding its opponents by 11.2 per overall. Not a huge team vs. conference opponent guy, but Richmond has won 14 straight vs. the SoCon, which is Furman's home. The Paladins have beaten three weak opponents and lost to the three moderately decent ones.
So in this week of MTEs if there's not injury news -- like there was yesterday in Syracuse-Kansas, and that worked great -- I try to avoid those and focus on the few true home games if possible. And this is one for Manhattan at the Draddy Gymnasium; probably good thing it's not named Diddy. Wagner is one of those programs traveling around making some bank to keep the athletic department going, and good for the Seahawks. They are 0-5, all away, and have a much bigger one next at Maryland. Then a home game! Manhattan opened at home against some nobody school and not been back since. The Jaspers have played a few quality power schools away, though. KenPom ranks them 24 spots higher.
You know, I was actually looking at tomorrow hoops and saw this and I'm like ... sure, I'll take two TDs and the hook whilst I do homework late at night in a holiday week when watching Cheers re-runs at midnight. When will I get midnight hoops again? It's not a true home game for UNLV but in Vegas. Alabama probably Flat Central after losing last night to Gonzaga. Seems a bit generous to me and now I have a reason to stay up other than to see if Sam and Diane make it (hint: they don't). One of the Tide's best defenders, Latrell "don't call me Sprewell" Wrightsell is not in Vegas due to injury.
Quick turnaround for both, and both without their best injured players in Donnie Freeman and Darryn Peterson, respectively. The Orange, though, had to go to OT yesterday in this MTE in Las Vegas against a stellar and physical Houston team, while KU had a fairly easy time against a decent Notre Dame side. KU has had the freshman Peterson for only two games, while Freeman is literally everything for SU. Kansas should have a massive frontcourt edge with him sitting again.
Can rarely go wrong on an Under with Houston regardless, but the only reason I'll play a half unit here -- not a big totals fan -- is that Orange star Donnie Freeman (team-leading 17.8 PPG, club's best free-throw shooter) will not play after being seen recently in a walking boot. You may certainly want to look simply at Orange TT. Plus, neutral sites are usually better for Unders as guys aren't used to the background, rims, etc. Defensively, the Orange have allowed more than 50 points just once. Houston has allowed more than 57 once.