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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past four NBA seasons, Matt has returned a whopping $6,634 to $100 bettors. That includes finishing 217-130-1 (plus $2,182) in the 2024-25 NBA season. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has excelled in two straight NFL seasons, returning $2,010 to $100 players, and is coming off an outstanding NHL season in which he went 235-155-21 (plus $2,022). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
LAST 5 CBB ATS PICKS
+130
RECORD: 3-2-0
+130
3-2 IN LAST 5 CBB ATS PICKS

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Matt's Past Picks
Dec 19 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Fairfield
84
@ CCSU
70
+65
3-2 in Last 5 FAIR ML Picks
Analysis:

Big number, yes, but I think it should be -250 if the right CCSU team shows up -- so I'll go ahead and bet to win on this. The Blue Devils already own wins at power schools Boston College and Rutgers. Not saying those are Final Four teams, but pretty impressive for an NEC school. And CCSU is 3-0 at home, scoring triple digits in each. Granted, against teams like Godolkin U (actually they might be invincible), Charmin College (the Softies) and Beefaroni State (want one of those T-shirts). When scoring 70+ points under coach Patrick Sellers, who has built a nice program, CCSU is 26-1 in its past 27. Fairfield allows 75.5 and has surrendered at least 70 in all but one road game.

Pick Made: Thu 12:07 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 19 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Temple
68
@ Davidson
63
Analysis:

Tip at 7:05 and this just became I think a good play as Temple is down three regulars in Gavin Griffiths, Swish Gilyard and AJ Smith. Now I'm hammering this. Short and sweet.

Pick Made: Thu 11:36 pm UTC on Caesars
Dec 17 2025, 11:00 pm UTC
League
Stonehill
58
@ New Hamp.
59
Analysis:

Naturally of my five picks yesterday, college hoops was the only loss. By a darn half point. Two pretty bad teams here, but Stonehill is 0-6 away and New Hampshire 3-1 at home. UNH might be rusty not having played since Dec. 6 but really no excuse not to be fully prepared for the visitors now. The Wildcats lead America East in rebounding (38.2 per game) (27.0) and and turnover margin (0.40) and are No. 2 in turnovers (11.5 per game) as well as third in steals (6.70 per game). Two of Stonehill's three wins are against non-DI opponents.

Pick Made: Wed 1:13 pm UTC on BetRivers
Dec 17 2025, 12:00 am UTC
League
Florida St.
69
@ Dayton
97
Analysis:

Think this number has reached a peak. Home teams generally dictate tempo, and that's what I'm counting on here as Dayton generally plays games in the 140s or 150s -- the Flyers allow 71.0 PPG. Florida State will want to push tempo but was held to 76 points in its lone true road game and also held in check by good defensive teams like Texas A&M (FSU scored 59 points) and Houston (scored 67). Our model -- I look for totals -- has 154 points scored.

Pick Made: Tue 2:31 pm UTC on BetRivers
Dec 14 2025, 10:00 pm UTC
League
Kent St.
78
@ Portland
88
+130
3-2 in Last 5 NCAAB ATS Picks
Analysis:

Well, Milwaukee chose not to cooperate earlier this afternoon (had every chance to win that game at the end) so hopefully Portland will. This seems a good 4 points high to me. Kent State might be the MAC's best team but plays its first true road game. The Pilots have two good freshmen in guard Joel Foxwell and forward Timo George. Foxwell has already earned two WCC Freshman of the Week awards and leads the WCC in assists per game (6.2) and is third among league freshmen in scoring (13.2). He is the NCAA freshman leader in assists per game. George leads the WCC and ranks fourth nationally in field goal percentage (.708). Portland is 9-2 SU in its past 11 at home.

Pick Made: Sun 9:18 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 14 2025, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Indiana St.
70
@ Milwaukee
68
Analysis:

Thank you Richmond for restoring my faith in humanity Saturday. I'm not saying I would have gone all Unabomber (metaphorically of course) if had lost, but I might have grown a lot of facial hair and moved to a shack in the woods and been that weird uncle or whatnot. But the Spiders paid for us and I think the Panthers will too. This probably should be in the -230 range or 5.5 on the spread. ISU has been upended as head coach Matthew Graves had to take a leave of absence in late October after heart surgery. Well wishes.

Pick Made: Sun 6:37 am UTC on DraftKings
Dec 13 2025, 11:00 pm UTC
League
S. Illinois
84
@ Richmond
93
Analysis:

There is absolutely no way I am signing off today with that awful Creighton loss. I'm getting that back. I don't consider a chase honestly and I know this is high, but I'll match it. I'm actually going 4 units off-site. I just don't think about spreads when I believe a team will win, sorry. It does not matter to me. I'll definitely be more surprised if this loses than Creighton did. The Spiders are 6-0 at home this season, equaling their win total at Robins Center from all of last year.

Pick Made: Dec 13, 10:19 pm UTC on bet365
Dec 13 2025, 8:00 pm UTC
League
Kansas St.
83
@ Creighton
76
+72
5-2 in Last 7 CREIGH ML Picks
Analysis:

Again, I don't really care what other people do but was about to post this and I see Thomas Casale is on the Jays. That definitely makes me feel better as there is no better college hoops capper in the country. So I just doomed you bro. But now I'm gonna up the wager -- and can blame him if goes south like I do Buckets for the Friday Bunda loss:) I make my own choices. Go big or go home. Also, my wife is really getting expensive Xmas tastes that are way above my paygrade. What's a Prada? I'm happy with a Slim Jim.

Pick Made: Dec 13, 10:22 am UTC on BetMGM
Dec 13 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
ETSU
75
@ Austin Peay
76
+130
3-2 in Last 5 NCAAB ATS Picks
Analysis:

I am kinda putzing along in college hoops. One step forward, 1.5 back. Honestly feels like the lines are just gross -- similar to NBA. Perhaps I am just getting particular, but I also don't really take college basketball too seriously until full conference play starts. This is not a conference game but the number seems a bit off to me short of a "Let's Go Peay" injury that I'm not aware of. I don't see anything but not a lot of Austin Peay beat writers out there. Probably should be a pick'em,. So we'll take the can't be beaten on a 3-point buzzer-beater number.

Pick Made: Dec 12, 1:55 pm UTC on FanDuel
Dec 12 2025, 12:30 am UTC
League
UT Arlington
58
@ UT-Rio Grande Valley
50
Analysis:

Anytime I can say "Vaqueros" I will take it, and I definitely now want a taco. But then I probably want a taco five if not six of every seven days. Soft tacos are unimpeachable in my opinion. Put salsa in there, though, and we rumble. A light slate tonight and I think this is the best bet of the bunch, although certainly won't be going crazy. KenPom ranks the home side a handful of spots higher. UTRGV does have one of the best-named players in sports, and I like this dude's parents: Always Wright, a junior guard from Mexico. His brother is named Never (that would be great). Sister Occasionally. I'll keep going. The Vaqueros are 2-0 at home this year after 12-4 last.

Pick Made: Dec 11, 12:40 pm UTC on bet365
Dec 11 2025, 1:30 am UTC
League
Southern U.
83
@ Texas St.
86
Analysis:

I expect this to go up a bit. Texas State has lost three straight but is 6-0 at home. It already handled another SWAC team in San Marcos, beating Texas Southern by 10 earlier in the season. Southern is 1-5 away as it travels around cashing checks and has a quick turnaround after getting routed at Texas on Monday. TXST has won eight straight games over SWAC opponents and has been off a week to prepare. The Bobcats' DJ Hall looks for a third straight double-double, which no player at the school has accomplished since 2012.

Pick Made: Dec 10, 12:57 pm UTC on bet365
Dec 10 2025, 12:30 am UTC
League
Illinois
88
@ Ohio St.
80
+130
3-2 in Last 5 NCAAB ATS Picks
Analysis:

As good as No. 13 Illinois might be, the best player on the floor could be OSU's Bruce Thornton (20.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.3 APG), who has been playing at an All-American level. It's the first true road game and Big Ten opener for the Illini. OSU already has a solid league win at Northwestern over the weekend. The Nuts would be unbeaten but for a last-second loss at Pitt. They've been one of the best shooting teams in the country this season, sporting an effective field goal percentage of 61%. 7-footer Christoph Tilly can help neutralize the two Illinois 7-footers in Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic. This should go down to the wire.

Pick Made: Dec 09, 2:14 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 09 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Miss Valley St.
49
@ Kansas St.
108
+130
3-2 in Last 5 NCAAB ATS Picks
Analysis:

Sorry, I clearly meant taking the points. OMG I'll never take -40. On a day like this with just an awful slate, somewhat entertained myself to see if this got to 40 as it opened at 30.5 and just ticking up all day -- like that Price is Right game where the yodeler climbs the mountain. Pretty darn rare to see a spread jump that much without half a team out. Obviously KSU can do what it wants here but has lost four straight and has a much more important game next at Creighton. I played some lower-tier NCAA hoops and no one want to lose by 40. 39 somehow feels that much better.

Pick Made: Dec 09, 12:39 am UTC on BetMGM
Dec 07 2025, 7:00 pm UTC
League
Saint Mary's
70
@ Davidson
61
+130
3-2 in Last 5 NCAAB ATS Picks
Analysis:

Well, Saturday wasn't a heck of a lot of fun from a collegiate perspective. New day. Saint Mary's is an excellent club, but I'm rather curious why the Gaels would even schedule this trip across country for a one-off against a mid-major. Davidson is a super quality program as well but can't imagine pays that much to visit. SMC did just get smashed last time out against Vandy. This is the Gaels' first true road game, too. Just all seems trappish to me. The 'Cats rank eighth in the nation in bench points per game because they go nine deep in each. And it's obviously the chance for a signature win on the resume.

Pick Made: Dec 07, 3:50 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 07 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Wichita St.
74
@ N. Iowa
69
+149.5
3-2 in Last 5 WICHST ML Picks
Analysis:

Need to get that Cleveland State stink off me quickly. Only the second road game for WSU, which lost the other and has lost three in a row to DI opponents overall. UNI is 5-0 at home and yet again defensively dominant. It leads the country in scoring defense at 55.4 points allowed per game and also in the top-20 in three-point percentage defense (.261) and in field goal percentage defense (.362). The Panthers lead the MVC in assist/turnover ratio (1.88) and rank second with 17.1 assists per game. A White Out game. It's December in Cedar Falls. A White Out is the social event of the month if not year. I see Bruce Marshall is on UNI so that makes me feel better.

Pick Made: Dec 06, 9:04 pm UTC on FanDuel
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