How much of a betting nerd am I? Was at the dentist a while and the whole time I was on my phone either streaming Canes-Kraken from Finland -- cashed that parlay via newsletter/CBS Sports so hopefully tailed -- or monitoring this number and hoping for 10.5. I had "Johnny 5" at home programed to wager if so. Alas ... this is going the other way so will go now. Why on earth is CS Bakersfield traveling halfway across country to play Western Illinois in the first roadie of the year? Can't be for a big check. The Leathernecks were quite terrible last season but beefed up via transfer portal led by Daivion Traylor. Our model has the visitors by six. Bueno.

If you are wondering why there are so many matinees around college basketball today, it's Veterans Day. Yeah, banks are closed and you may or may not get your trashed picked up on time depending. This is the second game of a CBS Sports Network DH from Annapolis -- obviously home to Navy. The Middies were great last season with 26 wins and an NIT spot. Navy looked awful in this year's opener but was without star Jordan Pinnick. He has played the past two. Penn brings back 4 starters from an NCAA Tournament team so it should be favored ... but this is a lot (might also be an alt but I'm good). Our model has Navy winning by eight. Not sure about that.

This opened as low as 160.5 and I can't find a single model -- not that those have been good to me yet; ours has 156 points -- that has 160 total points scored between No. 3 Illinois and No. 16 Texas Tech from Lubbock -- why are they playing this opposite the Champions Classic? Illinois is averaging an incredible 116.0 PPG but hasn't played anyone yet or left home. Texas Tech is always a defense-first club and has given up just 100 points combined in two games. Pace will determine this total and generally speaking home teams dictate that. If this lands Over 167.5, Illinois almost surely won because it dictated such.

My first play on Maine this year and there was some itch in the back of my head to why do I think I know something about the Black Bears? Stephen King's son? Nope: Ace Flagg. Cooper's younger brother is one their best players and comes off his first career double-double. And it's Maine's home opener, always a nice bonus. Manhattan is projected as one of the Metro's worst teams and yet to win. The Jaspers are near bottom nationally in free-throw shooting at 51.2%. Needless to say, all the models I follow, including ours, like this but one really does so that was the push I needed.

Feels like a tough spot for 0-2 Toledo as it just played Thursday at Michigan State and now has to go to West Virginia less than 48 hours later for a nothing game? One of the Rockets' leading returners was big man Austin Parks, who averaged 10.7 points and 5.6 rebounds. He got hurt during the opener and not expected back today. Marshall obliterated another MAC school in Buffalo in the opener on Monday and has been sitting and practicing since for only Toledo. Sure sets up well. The model has Herd by 11.

This game was a nice slap in the face to remind myself I am not betting college basketball lookahead games this season if ever again -- short of ahead-of knowledge. For one thing, guys are often ruled out or in about an hour before tip. And the lines just go crazy. I was looking at Rice last night, but the Owls were nearly -200. No idea why this plummeted. ETAM returns just one player who appeared in a game last season for a team that went 11-21 and finished 11th in the Southland. Rice, an American Conference program, returns seven letterwinners and two starters from last year's squad. The model apparently is confused, too, as it has Rice by 13.

Not thrilled going against Thomas Casale but our model has Marshall by 10 points, while Haslem and ESPN BPI by about four points each. Is a true home game. The Herd are 27-7 at home in Coach Corny Jackson's two seasons. Preseason All-SBC First Team member Noah Otshudi is back. Buffalo, meanwhile, returns just 42 of its 2,497 points scored last season.

Welcome back college hoops! Not a huge totals guy most of the time, but I am Catholic so I had to bet this matchup on Sunday morning from Rome between Notre Dame and Villanova. It's basically the Pope Leo XIV national championship game (will he be there?) as he's from Chicago (which is Notre Dame's backyard) and graduated from Villanova. I have no idea of either team this early but with all the unusual travel, start time, surroundings, etc. You'd think shots would be clanking. The supposedly superior Wildcats only return two starters, while the Irish are almost entirely new.

I don't generally follow the public or care what it is doing, but I just got the DK trends for today's NCAA Tournament early games and Akron is taking by far the most underdog money. I believe the Zips were the best team in the MAC and would have beaten Miami of Ohio in the conference title game had the RedHawks gotten there. TTU is just not the same without injured All-American JT Toppin. Tempted to play Akron ML as I almost did on Miami the other night. But that's my luck these days, had it written and talked myself out of it. Self: Shut up.

Well heavens to Betsy, I won a college hoops game. Who is Betsy by the way? No idea. What a super-fun early afternoon of NCAA Tournament action. And I have a shred of confidence back after a brutal month-plus with South Florida rallying to cover against Louisville. So let's just roll that into this -- I tend to always follow Saint Mary's a bit and not really sure why. Probably like watching them in those late-night games in the WCC and the fact I'm Catholic, I suppose. This will be all about tempo. If the game is in the high 70s, the Aggies will win. If not, it will be the Gaels. KenPom has them rated 17 spots higher.

Feel like I have to take this as it's the last 5.5 on our board with star Mikel Brown Jr. ruled out for Louisville. Not a shock, but it dropped the number at most books. I worked in Tampa for many years so I know a little about USF. Commuter school that usually never lives up to its promise but hit a grand slam luring coach Bryan Hodgson from Arky State. He already has turned down Syracuse. What year is this? Someone turned down Syracuse for USF, whose claim to hoops fame in my lifetime is probably Chucky Atkins. The Bulls have one loss in their past 15. I was doing well on college hoops until about mid-February and then the wheels fell off.

Been an awful six weeks or so in college hoops, just utterly backward. But at least now I don't have to worry about teams' motivation as we try to salvage the year. Lehigh has been pretty decent to me this campaign, and I certainly rank the Patriot League above Prairie View's SWAC. And the Panthers were just eighth in the SWAC before storming to the conference tournament title. They played 13 non-con games and went 5-8. Four of those wins were over non-Division I programs.

Ivy League Tournament on Saturday from Ithaca. These teams split in the regular season but I'm on Harvard because Quakers star, leading scorer and second-team All-Ivy pick Ethan Roberts is out for the event due to concussion symptoms. In the two RS games vs. Harvard, he averaged 24.0 points and 4.0 rebounds.

This seems a bit light to me, granted that records aren't everything. But Morgan State finished second in the MEAC at 10-4 and Delaware State last at at 2-12. The Bears closed winning 10 of 12, swept the season series and KenPom ranks them 10 spots higher -- both among the worst nationally. The 1-2 punch of All-MEAC picks Alfred Worrell Jr. and Elijah Davis, both transfers, should be enough for Morgan State to bring this home. DSU ranks No. 3 in the MEAC in defense but last in scoring (61.0 PPG) and in 3-pointers per game (4.8). Morgan State is No. 2 in 3-point defense.

ASUN quarterfinal from Jacksonville. I'm simply going to bet chronologically today -- if not logically -- and see how it goes. I believe this is 50 cents or so too low. KenPom ranks Lipscomb at No. 178 nationally and FGCU at 263. I am not "Beautiful Mind" math-wise but that seems like a wide discrepancy. The Bisons -- makes my grammar skin crawl, but there is a fun little story behind the plural -- won both RS meetings quite easily and has taken the past five overall vs. FGCU. The Eagles had to play Wednesday to advance, beating league doormat North Alabama, but generally not a good team away from Fort Myers.