Minnesota has quietly emerged as one of the best defensive teams in the NFL this season. I expect this to be a slugfest early, with most of the scoring taking place in the game's final three quarters.

Sam Darnold has excelled this season from a clean pocket, with a 72% completion rate and a 5.5% touchdown rate. The Falcons' defense is 31st in pressure rate in the NFL, so this sets up as a great matchup for Darnold and the Vikings' offense. Darnold is 5th in the NFL in touchdown passes (23) and he's thrown for multiple scores the last three weeks in a row. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 9 of 12 games this season. I like this line even with the juice, but I will sprinkle on three passing touchdowns as well.

Kirk Cousins has been downright dreadful since Week 10 and now faces a tough Vikings defense that excels at generating quick pressure, which bodes poorly for Cousins who has struggled under duress this year. The Falcons have also not been shy about trying to hide Cousins recently. The league average passing rate this season is 63% and the Falcons have eclipsed that number just once since Week 5. The Vikings also rank 4th in EPA allowed per dropback, 6th in dropback Success %, and blitz at the highest rate in the league. Despite the revenge game narrative, I'll be fading Cousins a variety of ways on Sunday.

This is a massive game for Kirk Cousins in his return to Minnesota, but I don't think he's going to have much success. The Falcons would've beaten the Chargers had Cousins not been so ineffective as a passer, and I'm worried he's dealing with an injury. Minnesota knows his weaknesses well, and Brian Flores should dial up the pressure and effectively neuter the Atlanta passing attack. That leaves it up to the Falcons pass rush, which showed up for the first time all season last week, to have a repeat performance to keep the team in the game. I don't see it happening.

The Vikings are 10-2 because they are one of the best defensive football teams in the NFL. Brian Flores would likely get my vote for NFL Assistant Coach of the Year if the season ended today. Kirk Cousins has a lot to play for in his first trip back to Minnesota. Cousins is potentially playing for his job in Atlanta with Michael Penix Jr. waiting to play behind him. He also has a chance for revenge against the team that essentially didn't want him back in 2024. Cousins will have to play much better than he has recently for the Falcons, but I expect him to show up and play well. This is too many points for a matchup like this in my opinion.

Jefferson has reached 81 receiving yards or more in every home game this season. He is facing a bad defense with no pass rush and a sagging secondary and will be able to make plays on double moves and in scramble drill. He averages 6 catches for 104 yards at home this season. Jordan Addison still only slows up from time to time. Expect him to show up big in the early-game scrips and challenge the Falcons downfield on play action from the jump. I'm playing 100+ in alt markets.

The Falcons have no pass rush (31st in pressure rate) and Darnold is very good in his home dome and is 7th in yards/attempt when not pressured, pushing the ball downfield to his many capable pass catchers. Falcons have allowed 12 passing TDs in their last 5 road games and 21 on the season overall. Vikings were sluggish early as expected last week in their first home game in a month, then Darnold and the offense exploded. I expect them to pick up where they left off.

Justin Jefferson hasn't had the monster season some expected, but this is a very soft matchup. Atlanta ranks 31st in pressure rate while allowing the NFL's highest completion percentage (71.6). Jefferson has six-plus catches in five straight home games (played in perfect conditions). Sam Darnold will have time to let plays develop, Jefferson will get open, and he should have a huge game.

The Vikings are 10-2 and have won five games in a row but if you look the at those five teams you can see why I'm not really optimistic about the Vikings future. Winning on the road at Chicago, Tennessee, and Jacksonville is not exactly the greatest trifecta. And the Vikings have the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL but I think in this spot the combination of Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson is going to get the win. It's a dangerous spot for the Vikings facing a team that has lost three in a row like the Falcons. Falcons to cover.

The Vikings are elite at stopping the run, which likely means Kirk Cousins has to play great for Atlanta to cover. Although he will be highly motivated playing against his former team, Cousins has been subpar for three straight games now and is coming off a four-INT disaster. He’s a stationary target for Brian Flores’ multiple blitzers. Look for Minnesota, which woke up late to beat Arizona, to start fast Sunday and cover.