The issue for the Commanders is not the absence of Jayden Daniels but Terry McLaurin. Marcus Mariota is serviceable enough, but Washington does not have the horses to sustain drives and keep the ball away from Detroit. While the Lions are a far better home team, Jared Goff has played well on the road this season, and the Commanders defense has so many holes that he and his playmakers should have a field day.

The Lions should come into this game focused after a shocking loss to the Vikings last week, and I expect them to take full advantage of Washington's weak pass defense. The Commanders allow 171.3 receiving yards to WRs per game, second only to Pittsburgh, and they have been susceptible to big plays. That's good news for Williams, a chunk play merchant who had a 37-yard catch last week against the Vikings. There was talk a few weeks ago of making sure he gets more involved in the offense, and he's had 66 yards and 6+ targets in two of the team's last three games. In such a good matchup, I expect him back at those numbers again this week, meaning this line is too low.

We've e suspected all season that the Commanders were about to fall into the abyss. Now, with Jayden Daniels out again, it's up to Marcus Mariota, who since the Raiders game in September has fared poorly in subsequent appearances, tossing just 3 TD passes vs. 4 picks across his next three outings. Moreover, the defense has sagged, run off of the field last Sunday night by the Seahawks in Seattle 38-14 romp. The Lions should be hungry, not only off of a rare loss, but also in a revenge mode after being knocked out of the playoffs by the underdog Washington last January, 45-31. There is plenty of offense on the Detroit side to make amends. Play Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs has been inconsistent this season, and coming off a bad game against the Vikings, where he only had 28 total yards. This is the ultimate get-right spot for Gibbs and the entire Lions' offense against this struggling and banged-up Commanders' defense. Over the last four weeks, Washington has allowed 5 yards per carry to enemy running backs. They give up the 10th most rushing yards and the 8th most receiving yards to running backs. Look for Gibbs to get right and exceed this combo line on Sunday.

I think the answer is, yes. Sam LaPorta is coming off a big game with 97 receiving yards and a touchdown. Now LaPorta has a pristine matchup against the Commanders' defense, a bad defense in general, but especially bad against tight ends. Washington is 30th in touchdown rate to tight ends (10.3% touchdown rate). I think the Lions put up a ton of points against Washington on Sunday, and I think LaPorta will find the endzone.

The Commanders suffered a big blow with the loss of Jayden Daniels, and I'm not sure how the offense responds in a tough matchup here after they had no success vs. Seattle with their QB1. The offense has actually been struggling for weeks if you consider they only managed 22 against Dallas and 24 against Chicago, two defenses who have been lit up in recent games. Detroit's offensive line has its own issues with the interior losing multiple players recently and both tackles picking up injuries that may keep either or both sidelined in this matchup. That should keep the Lions focused on a possession offense and running the clock down, making it hard for this game to get to 50.