1 Expert Pick
I'm expecting Dortmund to park to protect their lead. ...
Bayer Leverkusen outclassed Olympiacos when the teams met in Greece last week. Two goals from Patrik Schick earned them a 2-0 away win, so they now have a decisive advantage in this two-legged clash. If they win, draw, or lose by a single goal in the second leg, they will qualify for the Round of 16. However, it would be risky to simply sit back, soak up pressure, and aim for a draw. Bayer Leverkusen should go for the jugular on Tuesday, and they have enough quality to beat Olympiacos in front of their home fans.
Well this might be a first for me as well: Playing -1.5 on a soccer team. And I wouldn't domestically but Inter was stunned 3-1 in Norway in the first leg of this Champions League tie, so it has to win by two (some of our books have -2 as the spread) at home Tuesday to simply force a penalty shootout to advance. So needless to say, the Italians should be playing major aggressively -- not ideal that captain Lautaro MartÃnez is out, to be sure, but I still can see a two-goal result.
At this price, will throw a half down. As Buckets said, Newcastle has very little to care here up 6-1 after the first leg. No reason to press offensively and give Qarabag any good counterattack chances. And I'm not sure Qarabag is good enough to get more than a goal anyways. Maybe the hosts do rest some key offensive guys with essentially little to play for and an important EPL match Saturday. Manager Eddie Howe is expected to and give fringe players some rare European minutes. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.
Are we really going to lay 2.5 goals in a Champions League match? If you watched Newcastle toy with Qarabag last week in Baku, that hardly seems unreasoanble.The 6-1 scoreline could easily have been 10-1, or 11-1, so many times Anthony Gordon (who had four goals, by the way), Harvey Barnes and others seem to be in alone vs. Qarabag keeper Mateusz Kochalski That makes it 12 goals conceded in two Champs League matches in a row by Kochalski (Liverpool got six of its own on January 28), though it's not all his fault. Eddie Howe might be tempted to field a Carabao Cup-like side, but with him feeling a bit of heat, not sure the Toon pulls back. Play Newcastle on Spread
There are a lot of people who watched the first leg, saw seven goals, and are just now going to assume that the second leg will be similar. While this could happen, we have to remember how these two leg matches work. Newcastle will advance as long as they don't lose by five goals. They also don't need to score. If this ends 2-0 Qarabag, Newcastle still advance. Expect Newcastle to rest their good strikers, and for Qarabag to pretty much have given up at this point. I see this being very low scoring with little on the line.
The first leg between these two clubs was absolutely electric. Club Brugge held down their home fortress and ended up drawing the LaLiga giants 3-3 off the back of an 89' minute goal from Christos Tzolis. This club has shown they are not afraid to put their foot on the gas and play an extremely high and punishing front line. While playing at Madrid will be a different environment, they'll have to continue that high press to stand a chance of qualifying. I think we'll see another shootout.
Thanks a bunch to the CBS Sports tech/data guys as we now have Draw No Bet -- and no reason to wait. This brings some favorites into play for me that I didn't love at -0.5 or -0.25. Like Olympiacos, which won 2-0 when these sides met in Greece on Matchday 7. Olympiacos has matched its longest winning streak in the Champions League overall with three in a row and has taken the home leg in six of its past seven two-legged ties in UEFA competition. It appears to have no player questions. Leverkusen is winless in its past four in Greece (one draw). I was somewhat leaning draw here -- I'll nearly never bet that, though -- and now don't have to fret.
Club Brugge tend to play in high-scoring affairs, and the home side will push for a positive result when they host Atletico Madrid on Wednesday. Six of Brugge's last seven games across all competitions have featured three goals or more. Meanwhile, Atletico is coming off a 3-0 defeat on the road at Rayo Vallecano, but the last time Diego Simeone's men were clean-sheeted, they bounced back by scoring four goals against Barcelona.
Atletico Madrid shocked the world after beating Barcelona in 4-0 in the semi-final first leg of the Copa del Rey. Everyone was singing their praises saying they're this huge threat. Then, three days later, did nothing and lost 3-0 to Rayo Vallecano on the road. This is a team that is so strong at home, but I don't trust them on the road. I think Brugge get at least a draw in the first leg, knowing they need to find a big result in the first leg.
Picking the lone early game of the four Champions League matches worked well Tuesday, so let's try again Wednesday in the same scenario on a home dog. Except this time we get +1.25 instead of +0.25. It's the first-ever UEFA competition meeting between these clubs and Newcastle's first against a team from Azerbaijan. It's also the first for either at this stage of the UCL. Qarabag keeper Mateusz Kochalski missed the team's last domestic match but is ready. The side has scored two or more goals in the last six UCL home matches. Newcastle has two wins in its 15 away UEFA matches. Win by a goal I could care less. The visitors also have a handful of guys out led by defender Emil Krafth.
I know that people see the name Newcastle and want to put money on them to absolutely dominate an Azerbaijani side and that makes sense! I don't blame people for thinking that! I will say though be careful, this is a two-legged competition. Newcastle know if they just keep this close they can bring the second leg back home and dominate. I expect Qarabag to do what they did against Copenhagen, Chelsea, and Frankfurt at home already, and cover this spread.
Qarabag are the first Azerbaijani side to ever make it to the knockout round of Champions League play. They consistently scored against some of the best teams in Europe, and have been the shock of the entire competition. While many people are expecting them to fall off now, I still believe they will fight, score, and contribute to this goal total. Newcastle are the better side, and will find goals here, but I'm taking this over banking on Qarabag to once again, score at home.
I was honestly a bit surprised to see this line set to over 2.5 goals instead of over 3.5 goals. I think it's because Atalanta are capable of keeping things scrappy and close. We saw that most recently when they played Lazio to a 2-0 win, and Como to a 0-0 draw. My belief is that with this being a 2-legged playoff, Dortmund are going to press heavily at home in this first leg, knowing that playing in Italy is going to be tough. I'm expecting Dortmund to score 2+ goals in the first leg, and wouldn't be shocked if Atalanta snag one as well. Take BTTS and over 2.5 goals with an explosive Dortmund attack.
This is going to be a very close matchup between two more than capable sides. I believe that both teams will win their home leg, and the question is by how much each team can win. Atalanta will try to keep things close in the first leg, while Dortmund will look to press the attack and fight for a multi-goal lead in the first leg. Dortmund have won four of their last five home games in the new year, and their supporters in UCL play are going to be wild. Expect the hosts to win leg one.