Real Madrid boss Xabi Alonso is under huge pressure after his team lost 2-0 to Celta Vigo at the weekend. Los Blancos have just 1 win from their last 5 league games, and they're now 4 points below Barcelona in La Liga. They were poor when losing to Liverpool in the Champions League last month, and they could struggle against Man City. Pep Guardiola's men are on a three-game winning streak, and Erling Haaland is on fire right now.
PSG should be far too strong for Athletic Club in this game. Athletic Club have struggled in this competition, with just one win in five games. They were heavily beaten by Dortmund, Arsenal, and Newcastle. They could only draw with a weak Slavia Prague team, and their only win came against Qarabag. Their league form has been underwhelming too, so I expect them to be outclassed by the reigning European champions in Bilbao.
I went back and forth (waiting on lineups too) on this but the teams are basically level in the UCL table and we are getting +2.5? The Bianconeri have just one victory and six points from the opening five games of the competition. Pafos has lost only one of its 11 UEFA club competition matches this season (W5 D5) and unbeaten in five away (W3 D2) with four clean sheets. The Cypriots can't stay within 2?
Largely a wash in the Champions League on Tuesday. Top Leverkusen midfielder Alejandro Grimaldo missed Saturday's domestic match but expected to play. Leverkusen has lost only one of its past six European matches against English clubs while keeping four clean sheets. That includes a shock 2-0 upset at Man City in the last UCL match. Die Werkself has two losses in its past nine UCL league phase matches overall. Newcastle has two wins in its past 13 road European matches, and all we want Wednesday on CBS Sports Network is a draw.
So, how much has really changed since last February when Real Madrid dominated City over two legs? Plenty, some might say, as the Bernabeu crew seems to be headed into crisis with rumors swirling that Zinedine Zidane might be brought back to replace beleaguered Xabi Alonso behind the bench. Still, not sure how much fundamentally has changed in ten months, as City looked slow as it tried to cope with Real Madrid's speed and Kylian Mbappe in particular; Mbappe (tops in the UCL with nine goals) is iffy on Wednesday, which opens the door for Vinicius, whose pace could prove more of an issue. Even with the distractions at the Bernabeu, matchups still look dicey for City. Play Real Madrid on ML
The first thing Borussia Dortmund did when getting the fixture list for the Champions League was sigh relief at this game vs. Bodo/Glimt taking place at Signal Iduna instead of inside the arctic circle. This might be one of the more entertaining matches on the Wednesday slate as Bodo has been throwing some haymakers since last season in Europe, with four of its five UCL matches featuring at least four goals. With only two draws to show for their efforts, the Norwegians are swimming upstream, but that makes for electricity vs. BVB, which has scored goals for sport in this competition, four times netting four goals in five outings, with Serhou Guirassy on the board twice vs. Villarreal two weeks ago. Play BVB-Bodo/Glimt Over
This is one of those matchups where waiting for lineups matters so much. This has been advertised all week as the "Kylian Mbappe versus Erling Haaland Ultimate Matchup". Well, Mbappe is injured, and is on the bench. We also see Arda Guler on the bench as well. There's a chance they both sub in during the second half, but missing two key players for a chunk of the match has me leaning on an inform, and terrifying Manchester City side. Look at Man City over 1.5 TT here as well, but due to these injuries, I'm backing City to win on the road.
Juventus and Pafos are both sitting equal on points and are both just outside of the top 24 positions needed to move on after this group stage. This means, that points in this match are critical for both clubs. Pafos continues to play wildly better than expectations that were put on them. They played Monaco, Olympiacos, Bayern, Kairat and Villarreal, and only lost a single match, albeit a bad one to the Bavarians. However, this is a team that knows how to lock things down and keep things close even when playing against opponents who are worlds better than them on paper. Juventus haven't covered this big of a spread yet in UCL this season, and only did it once across all competitions this year.
I don't like betting spreads normally - but I do not envy Club Brugge. They have the extreme displeasure of welcoming an Arsenal side who is coming off an extremely rare loss. Arsenal are currently the only perfect team left in Champions League. Five matches played, five wins, and have outscored their opponents 14-1. They also, are first in the Premier League, and are getting back some key players like Gyokeres. I'm expecting this squad to look at their loss against Aston Villa as immediate motivation. This is a team that bounces back in terrifying fashion, and a struggling and limping Brugge side is in for a bad night.
Dortmund matches in UCL have been completely off the rails so far. They've played five matches so far and those matches have seen a total of 28 goals. They are averaging more than five goals per match right now in Champions League play. Bodo isn't too far behind with their matches averaging just under four goals scored per match in UCL play. Dortmund at home playing in front of the Yellow Wall are going to press for 90 minutes straight regardless of the score, and if Bodo don't get a point here, their journey is done. I like BTTS + Over 2.5 goals here, but I also like the flat over 3.5 in any Dortmund UCL match.
It's crazy how much home-field advantage can skew a number. Athletic Club are not a bad team by any means, but the ML line for PSG frankly should not be playable. PSG has all the right players finding form at just the right time for this match. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia picked up a brace over the weekend against Rennes, while Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola are both looking fit enough to start again. PSG has been been running over clubs in UCL without their best goal scorers - just imagine what they can do now that they're all coming back. Athletic couldn't score against Slavia, and defensively have looked disjointed. I'm expected a big three points for PSG.
You should almost never, see a line at 2.5 goals in a match featuring PSG. There are 36 clubs playing in Champions League. Out of those 36 clubs, none of them have scored more than PSG five matchdays in. PSG are sitting with a towering 19 goals scored, while still conceded eight. 27 goals over five matches and you're going to let me bet over 2.5 goals? Well okay then! This one is simple. PSG have hit the over in every UCL match this season, and they still need points. I see no reason not to bet on six in a row against a defensively leaking Athletic side.
First-ever meeting between the sides and our model has it as the lowest-scoring game of the day. Villareal has failed to score in four of its five Champions League matches this season. I am just now learning that Villareal's nickname is Yellow Submarine. I am not a Beatles fan but that is just great. Striker Gerard Moreno is out. Before his latest setback last week, he had scored four goals in his last five La Liga appearances. FC Copenhagen enters have been blanked in back-to-back domestic matches.
My mom always told me growing up, that if you don't have anything nice to say about someone, don't say anything. But, sorry mom, it's my job now to be honest even if it's mean. Ajax have been the biggest letdown in the entirety of Champions League this season. This once giant of Netherlands, is currently sitting dead last on the table. They are the only team, with zero points. Five matches played, five matches lost, outscored 1-16 on goals. While it's technically "not too late" to qualify for the next round, it's pretty much too late. Qarabag at home is brutal and should handle this Ajax side easily. I'd play this at -140.
Villarreal is a WILD club this season. They are currently third on the LaLiga table. They have the best defense in Spain, having only conceded 13 goals, while putting up an impressive 31 over those same matches. But... then we look at their UCL form. You are not mistaken. They are 34th on the table. They have zero wins, one draw, and four losses, while being outscored 2-10. They were embarrassed by Dortmund 4-0, and before that, lost to Pafos as almost -900 favorites. Something is massively wrong for Villarreal in UCL play, and at this point, I don't think they can fix it in time. I'll take +1.5 for anyone against them in this competition.