I’m backing PSG to win. Arsenal have been incredible defensively, but I still don’t trust their attack, especially if they need to chase a goal against a PSG side that should have the better attacking matchups in this one. Luis Enrique is an incredible manager, and I give him the edge over Mikel Arteta in this spot. When you look at the matchups across the pitch, PSG look more than equipped to win this in 90 minutes.
This could be a high-flying match, but history suggests it’s more likely to be a snoozefest than a barn burner. Before PSG’s 5-0 win over Inter Milan last year, six straight Champions League finals went under 2.5 goals. Arsenal are built to play slow and controlled, and their defense has been elite. They have conceded just 0.43 goals per match in the Champions League and 0.71 domestically. PSG are not exactly slouches defensively either. Add in the fact that BTTS has not hit in seven straight UCL finals, and the under becomes even more enticing. In my eyes, someone wins this 1-0 or 2-0, giving us value on the under.
A London vs. Paris powerhouse matchup in Hungary. OK. Now I want Arby's as am hungry. I never would have guessed this, but it's the first major men's club competition final between teams from England and France. Arsenal could complete the greatest season in franchise history, while PSG tries to become only the second team to repeat as UCL champion. Just asking for a regulation draw and then go crazy. The Gunners have not lost in this year's competition and have allowed only six goals in their 14 matches (no U3.5s available). PSG and Arsenal have met seven times, with two wins each and three draws.
I'm someone who is lucky enough to say I've traveled to Munich to watch Bayern Munich play at home in person. This environment that they are capable of creating is hell on earth for visiting clubs. Expect this team to show up for the most important match of the year, and make the environment deafening for PSG for 90 minutes. I am bias as a Bayern Munich fan so take this with a grain of salt, but I believe Bayern Munich not only win, but win by multiple goals. I'm looking at a 4-2 final, with Bayern advancing, as PSG crumble beneath the front line of Kane, Olise and Diaz.
I know that -170 is a GROSS number, so let me just say I have absolutely no problem taking over 4.5 goals, and over 5.5 goals, and over 6.5 goals. This is the kind of match you want to consider (responsibly) doing a bit of a goal ladder. We saw a record breaking nine goals in the first leg, and both managers after the match said they were changing nothing about how they're playing this second leg. Both managers play an extremely aggressive line urging their players to attack. I think we see at least six goals in this game, so even at -170 this line feels like a gift.
Thank you Arsenal on Tuesday. Most of our other books have -1 and even one at -1.5, so even at this price for the other semifinal from Germany on Wednesday yep. Bayern is sitting down a goal in the aggregate following last week's utterly bananas 5-4 first leg in Paris. That was fun. PSG did lose a pretty key player to injury in right back Achraf Hakimi, and he's out. Bayern has won five of its seven previous UEFA two-legged ties against French opposition. PSG has lost its past two such vs. German foes.
It feels weird betting an over in a match involving Diego Simeone and Mikel Arteta. Let’s just be very clear, though: this is not your old-school Atletico Madrid side. It’s been quite a while since the average goals per match in Atletico Madrid games sat closer to two than three. You would have to go all the way back to the 2019 season for that kind of Atleti team. This Atletico side has shown defensive fragility all season, but because of their structure, they also have enough attacking talent to offset some of those issues. Arsenal boast an incredible defense, arguably the best in Europe, but they are still vulnerable to concede.
Good injury news for Arsenal entering the UCL second leg at home on Tuesday -- it's even on aggregate -- as captain Martin Ødegaard and forward Kai Havertz are available to play. Ødegaard was limited to 57 minutes of last week's 1-1 first-leg draw, but Havertz didn't go. Arsenal has lost only one of its past 15 home matches in European competition against Spanish clubs. Feels like Atleti blew the chance to lead by at least a goal following the first leg as they did largely control the action in Madrid. Arsenal is looking to reach its first final in the competition in 20 years, having never previously won it.
PSG's forwards were on fire in their 5-4 victory over Bayern Munich last week. They're now unbeaten in 10 Champions League knockout stage games, which is a remarkable record. The Parisians will qualify for the Champions League final if they avoid defeat in Wednesday's second leg game against Bayern. Both teams are stacked in attack, but PSG have a better midfield and a slightly better defense. They've beaten Liverpool, Chelsea, Monaco, and Arsenal in their last four knockout stage away games, so they have the quality to get a result in Munich.
We'd think Arsenal, the only unbeaten team in this season's UCL (10 wins, two draws), would be fine with a draw Wednesday as it hosts the second leg semifinal next week. The Gunners trounced Atletico 4-0 in the league phase in London in late October, but they were playing at much higher level overall then (and it was 0-0 entering the 56th minute). In its past seven total games in all competitions, Arsenal has totaled five goals. Injury-plagued Kai Havertz (three goals in five UCL games) reportedly is out Wednesday. Atleti has lost only two of its past 18 home matches vs. English foes.
I can see it now. The whistle blows and kickoff begins at Metropolitano Stadium. Arsenal proceeds to park the bus and grinds this game to a halt playing for a nil-nil first leg. Arsenal knows that their success will happen in the second leg, back at home, in front of their supporters. They will do what we see them do so often, and that's try to minimize damage on the road and keep things close. Atletico Madrid does have a decent attack, and they have to know that their only chance of breaking ahead at home. I think this ends nil-nil, but if I had to pick a winner, I'd take this spread even with the juice, expecting very little offense from Arsenal.
While I'm expecting fireworks and goals galore in the PSG v Bayern fixture, I'm expecting almost nothing exciting to happen in this one. We have two defensive sided teams, with defensive minded managers. Arsenal especially have been the kings of the low scoring affairs as of late. Their two legs against Sporting saw a combined one goal over the two matches, and both their matches against Leverkusen saw the under 2.5 goals as well. Arsenal has no problem parking the bus on the road, especially in a game like this, and I'm expecting very little goals across both legs.
I already have backed Bayern Munich on the .25 goal spread, but for those who crave a plus sign in front of their bets, I got you covered! It's hard for me to hide my bias, and I know there's going to be a lot of people betting on PSG to win the home leg, and Bayern to win their home leg, but I believe the Bavarians are about to shock everyone. I think it's Bayern's year, and Harry Kane is going to enjoy multiple trophies. With Kane in form, Diaz and Olise looking terrifying, and Neuer showing he can still be world class on his day, I believe they beat PSG, and I will never ignore Bayern Munich with a safety net.
I did an entire writeup for this match so make sure to check that out under the "Analysis" tab, but just know that the over in this match is my favorite single bet for the game. Bayern Munich do not know how to park the bus. It is not in their DNA and with Olise, Kane, and Diaz running rampant at the front, this team is always a threat in front of the goal. I expect them to press and like always defensively struggle, especially against the Parisian opposition. There are too many incredible goal scorers on the pitch of this match to not just take the over 3.5 goals, and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw more than that.
Everyone is talking about how dominate PSG have been at home this season, and they're not wrong! I expect PSG to be a fortress at home and to make this difficult, however, they haven't played a club like Bayern Munich yet this season. Bayern under Vincent Kompany will NOT sit back and play cagey on the road. This is a team that went to Madrid, and beat Madrid in the first leg last round. Before that, Bayern went to Atalanta on the road and scored six goals. Bayern won't park, and this game should be loaded with goals, but I don't see a world where Bayern don't leave at least equal on goals with how dominate this club has been all season long.