It feels weird betting an over in a match involving Diego Simeone and Mikel Arteta. Let’s just be very clear, though: this is not your old-school Atletico Madrid side. It’s been quite a while since the average goals per match in Atletico Madrid games sat closer to two than three. You would have to go all the way back to the 2019 season for that kind of Atleti team. This Atletico side has shown defensive fragility all season, but because of their structure, they also have enough attacking talent to offset some of those issues. Arsenal boast an incredible defense, arguably the best in Europe, but they are still vulnerable to concede.

Good injury news for Arsenal entering the UCL second leg at home on Tuesday -- it's even on aggregate -- as captain Martin Ødegaard and forward Kai Havertz are available to play. Ødegaard was limited to 57 minutes of last week's 1-1 first-leg draw, but Havertz didn't go. Arsenal has lost only one of its past 15 home matches in European competition against Spanish clubs. Feels like Atleti blew the chance to lead by at least a goal following the first leg as they did largely control the action in Madrid. Arsenal is looking to reach its first final in the competition in 20 years, having never previously won it.