I don't watch a ton of non-World Cup/European Championship soccer unless I'm betting, but I'll watch this. Should be some glorious offensive football with all the talent on the pitch. (Look at me learning the terminology.) But there were only 3 goals in the first leg and 3 is what our model has here. It gives Under 4.5 a rare A grade. I'm only going a half-unit because I'd enjoy as a fan seeing something like 5-4 and it may well happen, but I'm told it's hard to score in soccer. Like Halpert in "The Office," I last played the sport seriously from second to fourth grade on the orange team.
Waited about as long as possible on this for any late news -- Barca is down 2-0 in aggregate, so Atleti would hand it a 1-0 road win right now and be thrilled with it. Atleti knocked Barcelona out of this season's Copa del Rey with a 4-3 aggregate semifinal win, so you know the visitors will just be going 110% all-in to stop this nonsense today. Maybe just a bad matchup. Barcelona did dominate the first leg early, but Pau CubarsÃ’s red card changed everything. The Catalans twice overcame two-goal deficits in last season’s UCL semifinals against Inter Milan before eventually falling in extra time. Since the start of last season, half of Atlético Madrid’s home defeats are against Barca. Half-unit.
PSG is up 2-0 on aggregate, so obviously Liverpool will have to force the issue on Tuesday in the Champions League. The Reds didn't have a single shot on goal in the first leg, which I didn't even know was possible in a high-level matchup like this. Liverpool certainly looked a lot better Saturday back on the home pitch in a 2-0 EPL win over Fulham. Even PSG manager Luis Enrique said he expects a much different foe this time around. At home, Liverpool has won 14 of its past 18 vs. French foes.
Road teams fared great Tuesday to open the UCL quarters (dang it Real Madrid) but sure feels tricky seeing Liverpool win in Paris and am sure the Reds will be thrilled with a draw -- they did win their last season, 1-0 (first away win in the series by either), but that winning goalie Alisson Becker is currently out injured. Liverpool has not looked good in back-to-back domestic losses entering -- both those also away. PSG is unbeaten in its past seven (two draws) vs. English foes. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored in three straight UCL knockout phase matches for the hosts (four goals).
What a spectacular match Tuesday as the Champions League quarters kick off. I'm certainly no Wile E. Coyote, super genius, when it comes to soccer but Real Madrid when healthy as a home dog has to be quite rare. The Whites are unbeaten in their past nine vs. Bayern (W7 D2) and have seven home wins in their last eight in the series. Real Madrid has one loss in its past 23 overall against German clubs. Kylian Mbappé has averaged a goal every 56 minutes for Real Madrid in this year's UCL (13 goals in nine games) and of players to reach at least 10 goals in the event, only Erling Haaland in 2019-20 has done so while maintaining a better MPG ratio (55).
We just got our first 2, so I'll jump. I fully expect Liverpool to win sitting down 1-0 on aggregate, but I rather doubt by three goals. Maybe the Reds just don't match up well with the Turkish champs, also losing 1-0 in Istanbul in the group stage. Galatasaray has taken 14 of its past 17 two-legged ties in UEFA competition after winning the first leg at home. And Cimbom enter having kept three straight clean sheets in all competitions.
Teams tied 1-1 in the first leg last week in England -- Lamine Yamal's added-time penalty in the first leg denied Newcastle a historic victory. The Blaugrana have Europe’s best record at home this season and that's really all this is. Barcelona has lost only two of its 37 home games against English visitors (W22 D13) and is unbeaten in 14 (W9 D5). Newcastle has lost four of its past five away against Spanish opposition. Starting midfielder Sandro Tonali is in doubt with an illness and domestic leading scorer Bruno Guimaraes remains sidelined by injury.
The Blues are aiming to avoid three consecutive defeats in all competitions for the first time since February 2025. They trail 5-2 on aggregate vs. PSG (it was level at two goals apiece after 74 minutes), so you'd think the Parisians would take it a bit easy Tuesday and be just fine with a 1-0-type loss. Chelsea has lost only one of its past 11 UEFA home matches against French opposition (W7 D3) and has won the last three. The Blues have scored two or more goals in their last seven UEFA matches against French foes. They certainly will be in full attack mode Tuesday.
This is the teams' first meeting and also the first-ever European Cup tie between Norwegian and Portuguese clubs. I lean that this does draw, but Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt has been the surprise of the tournament after ousting Inter, last season's runner-up, to get to the Round of 16. It is the first Norwegian team to record four victories in a row in the Champions League proper and has everyone available. Kasper Høgh and Jens Petter Hauge have have nine goal contributions in that four-game UCL run. Should be a crazy home-field advantage today near the Arctic Circle. Sporting has a few player concerns led by suspensions to Pedro Gonçalves and Maxi Araujo. Goncalves is second on the team with 10 domestic goals.
First European matchup since 1963. Spurs manager Igor Tudor has lost all three of the games he has overseen in the Premier League since taking over for Thomas Frank, and fans have already started to turn on the Croatian. Spurs have never won an away game against a La Liga club (D3 L3). Tottenham has several players out injured as well. Atleti's 24 goals in this season's UCL are third-most. It has only lost two of its past 17 matches against English visitors (W8 D7). The Spanish side has kept 13 clean sheets in its past 18 knockout games overall at home.
Liverpool No. 1 keeper Alisson Becker will miss the match injured. Giorgi Mamardashvili will thus make his first appearance since an FA Cup win over Barnsley two months ago. He also came on as a sub in September's 1-0 defeat at Galatasaray -- which won on Victor Osimhen's first-half penalty. Including that, the Lions have only lost one of their last nine home matches against English visitors (five wins, three draws). Galatasaray has scored three or more goals in eight of its last 13 European games at home overall. The Turkish champs scored five in the last round at home vs. Juventus.
Dortmund is the better side but up 2-0 in aggregate, so it can play in a defensive shell and be just fine with a 1-0 loss or obviously a draw. La Dea, meanwhile, has won four of its last five at New Balance Arena in Bergamo, and it bounced back from the first-leg defeat with an impressive 2-1 Serie A win over Napoli on Sunday. Atalanta fairly recently has beaten good European teams such as Sporting CP, Marseille, Club Brugge and Chelsea in Bergamo. The first leg was only Dortmund's second victory in the last eight games against Italian teams.
Well this might be a first for me as well: Playing -1.5 on a soccer team. And I wouldn't domestically but Inter was stunned 3-1 in Norway in the first leg of this Champions League tie, so it has to win by two (some of our books have -2 as the spread) at home Tuesday to simply force a penalty shootout to advance. So needless to say, the Italians should be playing major aggressively -- not ideal that captain Lautaro MartÃnez is out, to be sure, but I still can see a two-goal result.
At this price, will throw a half down. As Buckets said, Newcastle has very little to care here up 6-1 after the first leg. No reason to press offensively and give Qarabag any good counterattack chances. And I'm not sure Qarabag is good enough to get more than a goal anyways. Maybe the hosts do rest some key offensive guys with essentially little to play for and an important EPL match Saturday. Manager Eddie Howe is expected to and give fringe players some rare European minutes. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.
Thanks a bunch to the CBS Sports tech/data guys as we now have Draw No Bet -- and no reason to wait. This brings some favorites into play for me that I didn't love at -0.5 or -0.25. Like Olympiacos, which won 2-0 when these sides met in Greece on Matchday 7. Olympiacos has matched its longest winning streak in the Champions League overall with three in a row and has taken the home leg in six of its past seven two-legged ties in UEFA competition. It appears to have no player questions. Leverkusen is winless in its past four in Greece (one draw). I was somewhat leaning draw here -- I'll nearly never bet that, though -- and now don't have to fret.