We just got our first 2, so I'll jump. I fully expect Liverpool to win sitting down 1-0 on aggregate, but I rather doubt by three goals. Maybe the Reds just don't match up well with the Turkish champs, also losing 1-0 in Istanbul in the group stage. Galatasaray has taken 14 of its past 17 two-legged ties in UEFA competition after winning the first leg at home. And Cimbom enter having kept three straight clean sheets in all competitions.
Teams tied 1-1 in the first leg last week in England -- Lamine Yamal's added-time penalty in the first leg denied Newcastle a historic victory. The Blaugrana have Europe’s best record at home this season and that's really all this is. Barcelona has lost only two of its 37 home games against English visitors (W22 D13) and is unbeaten in 14 (W9 D5). Newcastle has lost four of its past five away against Spanish opposition. Starting midfielder Sandro Tonali is in doubt with an illness and domestic leading scorer Bruno Guimaraes remains sidelined by injury.
The Blues are aiming to avoid three consecutive defeats in all competitions for the first time since February 2025. They trail 5-2 on aggregate vs. PSG (it was level at two goals apiece after 74 minutes), so you'd think the Parisians would take it a bit easy Tuesday and be just fine with a 1-0-type loss. Chelsea has lost only one of its past 11 UEFA home matches against French opposition (W7 D3) and has won the last three. The Blues have scored two or more goals in their last seven UEFA matches against French foes. They certainly will be in full attack mode Tuesday.
This is the teams' first meeting and also the first-ever European Cup tie between Norwegian and Portuguese clubs. I lean that this does draw, but Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt has been the surprise of the tournament after ousting Inter, last season's runner-up, to get to the Round of 16. It is the first Norwegian team to record four victories in a row in the Champions League proper and has everyone available. Kasper Høgh and Jens Petter Hauge have have nine goal contributions in that four-game UCL run. Should be a crazy home-field advantage today near the Arctic Circle. Sporting has a few player concerns led by suspensions to Pedro Gonçalves and Maxi Araujo. Goncalves is second on the team with 10 domestic goals.
First European matchup since 1963. Spurs manager Igor Tudor has lost all three of the games he has overseen in the Premier League since taking over for Thomas Frank, and fans have already started to turn on the Croatian. Spurs have never won an away game against a La Liga club (D3 L3). Tottenham has several players out injured as well. Atleti's 24 goals in this season's UCL are third-most. It has only lost two of its past 17 matches against English visitors (W8 D7). The Spanish side has kept 13 clean sheets in its past 18 knockout games overall at home.
Liverpool No. 1 keeper Alisson Becker will miss the match injured. Giorgi Mamardashvili will thus make his first appearance since an FA Cup win over Barnsley two months ago. He also came on as a sub in September's 1-0 defeat at Galatasaray -- which won on Victor Osimhen's first-half penalty. Including that, the Lions have only lost one of their last nine home matches against English visitors (five wins, three draws). Galatasaray has scored three or more goals in eight of its last 13 European games at home overall. The Turkish champs scored five in the last round at home vs. Juventus.
Dortmund is the better side but up 2-0 in aggregate, so it can play in a defensive shell and be just fine with a 1-0 loss or obviously a draw. La Dea, meanwhile, has won four of its last five at New Balance Arena in Bergamo, and it bounced back from the first-leg defeat with an impressive 2-1 Serie A win over Napoli on Sunday. Atalanta fairly recently has beaten good European teams such as Sporting CP, Marseille, Club Brugge and Chelsea in Bergamo. The first leg was only Dortmund's second victory in the last eight games against Italian teams.
Well this might be a first for me as well: Playing -1.5 on a soccer team. And I wouldn't domestically but Inter was stunned 3-1 in Norway in the first leg of this Champions League tie, so it has to win by two (some of our books have -2 as the spread) at home Tuesday to simply force a penalty shootout to advance. So needless to say, the Italians should be playing major aggressively -- not ideal that captain Lautaro MartÃnez is out, to be sure, but I still can see a two-goal result.
At this price, will throw a half down. As Buckets said, Newcastle has very little to care here up 6-1 after the first leg. No reason to press offensively and give Qarabag any good counterattack chances. And I'm not sure Qarabag is good enough to get more than a goal anyways. Maybe the hosts do rest some key offensive guys with essentially little to play for and an important EPL match Saturday. Manager Eddie Howe is expected to and give fringe players some rare European minutes. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.
Thanks a bunch to the CBS Sports tech/data guys as we now have Draw No Bet -- and no reason to wait. This brings some favorites into play for me that I didn't love at -0.5 or -0.25. Like Olympiacos, which won 2-0 when these sides met in Greece on Matchday 7. Olympiacos has matched its longest winning streak in the Champions League overall with three in a row and has taken the home leg in six of its past seven two-legged ties in UEFA competition. It appears to have no player questions. Leverkusen is winless in its past four in Greece (one draw). I was somewhat leaning draw here -- I'll nearly never bet that, though -- and now don't have to fret.
Picking the lone early game of the four Champions League matches worked well Tuesday, so let's try again Wednesday in the same scenario on a home dog. Except this time we get +1.25 instead of +0.25. It's the first-ever UEFA competition meeting between these clubs and Newcastle's first against a team from Azerbaijan. It's also the first for either at this stage of the UCL. Qarabag keeper Mateusz Kochalski missed the team's last domestic match but is ready. The side has scored two or more goals in the last six UCL home matches. Newcastle has two wins in its 15 away UEFA matches. Win by a goal I could care less. The visitors also have a handful of guys out led by defender Emil Krafth.
Tuesday marks only the second two-legged tie between a Turkish and an Italian club in Champions League history. Galatasaray has lost just three of its past 17 UEFA matches vs. Italian foes and not since 1963. Juventus enters winless in its past three in all competitions and has a few injury concerns. Galatasaray is unbeaten in its past four and has never lost at home in three all-time matches vs. Juventus. Victor Osimhen scored six of the Turkish champions' nine league phase goals.
Slavia cannot advance regardless of result today and is one of three clubs in this season's UCL without a win. Pafos has an outside shot of getting into the top 24 but must win and ideally win big. Pafos has lost just one of its past 10 UEFA matches at home (six wins). This is the first time clubs from Cyprus and Czechia have faced each other in the Champions League.
Napoli sits 25th in the Champions League table and thus is surely not advancing with a loss and maybe not a draw, either. So it should be going all-out Wednesday against a Chelsea side that is guaranteed a spot in the knockout rounds. The Blues are playing for a top-eight spot (could get with a draw) but a little different than playing for your existence. Napoli has won eight of its past 11 UEFA matches at home against English teams. Chelsea has won just two of its past 13 in Italy.
Not sure why Arsenal would go pedal to the metal having clinched at worst a top-two spot in the Champions League group stage and most likely the No. 1 -- so it's basically a "dead rubber game" as they say over the pond. A handful of key Gunners are out led by Declan Rice and Mikel Merino. They have a bigger match Saturday back in the Premier League, where things have suddenly been a struggle. Probably see a fair amount of subs on Wednesday. Here's hoping for 4-0 or 3-1.