Slavia cannot advance regardless of result today and is one of three clubs in this season's UCL without a win. Pafos has an outside shot of getting into the top 24 but must win and ideally win big. Pafos has lost just one of its past 10 UEFA matches at home (six wins). This is the first time clubs from Cyprus and Czechia have faced each other in the Champions League.
Napoli sits 25th in the Champions League table and thus is surely not advancing with a loss and maybe not a draw, either. So it should be going all-out Wednesday against a Chelsea side that is guaranteed a spot in the knockout rounds. The Blues are playing for a top-eight spot (could get with a draw) but a little different than playing for your existence. Napoli has won eight of its past 11 UEFA matches at home against English teams. Chelsea has won just two of its past 13 in Italy.
Not sure why Arsenal would go pedal to the metal having clinched at worst a top-two spot in the Champions League group stage and most likely the No. 1 -- so it's basically a "dead rubber game" as they say over the pond. A handful of key Gunners are out led by Declan Rice and Mikel Merino. They have a bigger match Saturday back in the Premier League, where things have suddenly been a struggle. Probably see a fair amount of subs on Wednesday. Here's hoping for 4-0 or 3-1.
Both sides have scored 11 goals in six UCL outings and conceded eight, but Liverpool is at 12 points and Marseille eight. Les Phocéens are rolling offensively of late with 16 goals scored in their past three domestic matches. They try for three straight UCL wins for the first time since 2010-11. Igor Paixão has four goals in Marseille's last five Champions League matches. The Reds have drawn four of their past five overall and that's all we are looking for here. They have a single win in their past six at French sides.
Our model has this has as a draw and that's my hope. Galatasaray is atop the Turkish Super Lig and 18th in the UCL table with an even goal differential. Atleti is unbeaten in the previous six meetings between the sides (W4 D2) but they haven't played since the 2015-16 Champions League group stage. Galatasaray has won only one of its last 21 matches against Spanish teams (D5 L15), but I don't need a win. Victor Osimhen helped Nigeria finish third at the Africa Cup of Nations and is available for Galatasaray. He leads the club with six UCL goals. Los Colchoneros, meanwhile, are 1-2 on the road in this season's UCL.
Neither club is going to make the knockout rounds with Kairat dead last in the 36-team table. But it has only two home losses in seven UCL matches this season including qualifying. No Kazakhstan club has ever won a game in a UEFA group stage/league phase. Club Brugge has lost all three away league phase matches this season, conceding nine goals and scoring only one, and is without a win in six overall (D1 L5).
I went back and forth (waiting on lineups too) on this but the teams are basically level in the UCL table and we are getting +2.5? The Bianconeri have just one victory and six points from the opening five games of the competition. Pafos has lost only one of its 11 UEFA club competition matches this season (W5 D5) and unbeaten in five away (W3 D2) with four clean sheets. The Cypriots can't stay within 2?
Largely a wash in the Champions League on Tuesday. Top Leverkusen midfielder Alejandro Grimaldo missed Saturday's domestic match but expected to play. Leverkusen has lost only one of its past six European matches against English clubs while keeping four clean sheets. That includes a shock 2-0 upset at Man City in the last UCL match. Die Werkself has two losses in its past nine UCL league phase matches overall. Newcastle has two wins in its past 13 road European matches, and all we want Wednesday on CBS Sports Network is a draw.
First-ever meeting between the sides and our model has it as the lowest-scoring game of the day. Villareal has failed to score in four of its five Champions League matches this season. I am just now learning that Villareal's nickname is Yellow Submarine. I am not a Beatles fan but that is just great. Striker Gerard Moreno is out. Before his latest setback last week, he had scored four goals in his last five La Liga appearances. FC Copenhagen enters have been blanked in back-to-back domestic matches.
If I see 4.5, it's pretty much an auto Under play for me short of some crazy lopsided international or domestic match. Obviously Barcelona can score 5 by itself, but Eintracht Frankfurt is, you know, in the Champions League and not some pushover like Ridgemont High even if it did allow six last time out in the Bunda. Our model only has 2.8 goals scored. I was thinking 3-1 or 4-0.
Just doing some research on this and rather curious why PSV is a home dog as it is atop the Eredivisie and on a 14-match winning streak in all competitions. It lost the first match of the UCL but has gotten at least a point in each of the next four, including impressive lopsided wins over Liverpool and Napoli. PSV has scored 17 goals in its past five UCL home league phase matches and has just three home losses in its past 18 at this stage. Atleti totaled one goal in B2B La Liga losses last week and those were also away.
Do I feel I have found a bit of a system on hockey and soccer regarding home dogs ATS? For the most part, yes. But not blindly. I went chronologically on Tuesday in the UCL and first looked a good 20 minutes at Ajax. Didn't like what saw, so passed. Good thing. But Marseille :) As for Frankfurt (now I want a dog with sauerkraut, chili, mustard and onions), it is unbeaten in its past five in all competitions and kept two clean sheets in the past three. Serie A side Atalanta fired its manager, Ivan Juric, a couple of weeks ago basically because the Bergamo side kept drawing. It is winless in the past nine (mostly draws) if my math is right. #givemeadraw
Should Marseille, sitting second in Ligue 1, be a home dog Tuesday? Obviously, the Olympians aren't much of one but I'm always jumping on a situation like this when the teams are fairly evenly matched and these are. They come in off back-to-back blowout domestic wins. Marseille only has three losses in its past 21 home European games (W13 D5). The Magpies, meanwhile, have won their last three Champions League matches without conceding a goal but have never won four straight in the competition. They might even be a bit flat off Saturday's shock upset of Manchester City. It's possible Anthony Gordon is back for Newcastle, but I feel pretty good about at least a draw -- and the French definitely need a point.
Pretty much feel obligated to play Under 4.5 in most soccer games when teams are somewhat evenly matched. I mean, these aren't evenly matched but this is the Champions League so Kairat Almaty clearly isn't utterly terrible. This is the first match between these teams and the first time either club has faced opponents from the other's country. The Nerazzurri have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 12 Champions League group stage/league phase games. If they keep another one, I feel quite good about this. Our model basically has it 3-1.
The only previous match between these clubs was last season in the Europa League with Ajax winning 2-1 at home. I'm good with a draw today in the UCL. Ajax has won 12 of its previous 14 matches against Turkish teams (D1 L1) and is unbeaten at home (W7 D1). Galatasaray is winless in its past 10 European games (D3 L7). Midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and forward Yunus Akgun are out injured for the visitors. Akgun is second on the club with two UCL goals this term. Ajax has lost all three league phase matches thus far in the Champions League, so it's near desperation time today.