I went back and forth (waiting on lineups too) on this but the teams are basically level in the UCL table and we are getting +2.5? The Bianconeri have just one victory and six points from the opening five games of the competition. Pafos has lost only one of its 11 UEFA club competition matches this season (W5 D5) and unbeaten in five away (W3 D2) with four clean sheets. The Cypriots can't stay within 2?
Largely a wash in the Champions League on Tuesday. Top Leverkusen midfielder Alejandro Grimaldo missed Saturday's domestic match but expected to play. Leverkusen has lost only one of its past six European matches against English clubs while keeping four clean sheets. That includes a shock 2-0 upset at Man City in the last UCL match. Die Werkself has two losses in its past nine UCL league phase matches overall. Newcastle has two wins in its past 13 road European matches, and all we want Wednesday on CBS Sports Network is a draw.
First-ever meeting between the sides and our model has it as the lowest-scoring game of the day. Villareal has failed to score in four of its five Champions League matches this season. I am just now learning that Villareal's nickname is Yellow Submarine. I am not a Beatles fan but that is just great. Striker Gerard Moreno is out. Before his latest setback last week, he had scored four goals in his last five La Liga appearances. FC Copenhagen enters have been blanked in back-to-back domestic matches.
If I see 4.5, it's pretty much an auto Under play for me short of some crazy lopsided international or domestic match. Obviously Barcelona can score 5 by itself, but Eintracht Frankfurt is, you know, in the Champions League and not some pushover like Ridgemont High even if it did allow six last time out in the Bunda. Our model only has 2.8 goals scored. I was thinking 3-1 or 4-0.
Just doing some research on this and rather curious why PSV is a home dog as it is atop the Eredivisie and on a 14-match winning streak in all competitions. It lost the first match of the UCL but has gotten at least a point in each of the next four, including impressive lopsided wins over Liverpool and Napoli. PSV has scored 17 goals in its past five UCL home league phase matches and has just three home losses in its past 18 at this stage. Atleti totaled one goal in B2B La Liga losses last week and those were also away.
Do I feel I have found a bit of a system on hockey and soccer regarding home dogs ATS? For the most part, yes. But not blindly. I went chronologically on Tuesday in the UCL and first looked a good 20 minutes at Ajax. Didn't like what saw, so passed. Good thing. But Marseille :) As for Frankfurt (now I want a dog with sauerkraut, chili, mustard and onions), it is unbeaten in its past five in all competitions and kept two clean sheets in the past three. Serie A side Atalanta fired its manager, Ivan Juric, a couple of weeks ago basically because the Bergamo side kept drawing. It is winless in the past nine (mostly draws) if my math is right. #givemeadraw
Should Marseille, sitting second in Ligue 1, be a home dog Tuesday? Obviously, the Olympians aren't much of one but I'm always jumping on a situation like this when the teams are fairly evenly matched and these are. They come in off back-to-back blowout domestic wins. Marseille only has three losses in its past 21 home European games (W13 D5). The Magpies, meanwhile, have won their last three Champions League matches without conceding a goal but have never won four straight in the competition. They might even be a bit flat off Saturday's shock upset of Manchester City. It's possible Anthony Gordon is back for Newcastle, but I feel pretty good about at least a draw -- and the French definitely need a point.
Pretty much feel obligated to play Under 4.5 in most soccer games when teams are somewhat evenly matched. I mean, these aren't evenly matched but this is the Champions League so Kairat Almaty clearly isn't utterly terrible. This is the first match between these teams and the first time either club has faced opponents from the other's country. The Nerazzurri have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 12 Champions League group stage/league phase games. If they keep another one, I feel quite good about this. Our model basically has it 3-1.
The only previous match between these clubs was last season in the Europa League with Ajax winning 2-1 at home. I'm good with a draw today in the UCL. Ajax has won 12 of its previous 14 matches against Turkish teams (D1 L1) and is unbeaten at home (W7 D1). Galatasaray is winless in its past 10 European games (D3 L7). Midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and forward Yunus Akgun are out injured for the visitors. Akgun is second on the club with two UCL goals this term. Ajax has lost all three league phase matches thus far in the Champions League, so it's near desperation time today.
We have one outlier book with a 3.5 (rest at 2.5) on this Tuesday Champions League match so I'll take it even juiced -- lot of projections have this landing right on 3 goals. The teams most recently faced each other in the round of 16 in the 2022-23 UCL and Napoli winning both legs: 2-0 away and 3-0 at home. Frankfurt has lost its last three matches against Italian teams without scoring. Just two of Napoli's past eight matches this year in all leagues combined for at least 4 goals scored. None of Frankfurt's past 3 have.
Arsenal is miles better but also quite short-handed due injury: Viktor Gyökeres, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Noni Madueke and Martin Odegaard are all sidelined today. MartÃn Zubimendi is suspended. Slavia has scored in 26 of its last 27 home European games. So we are obviously hoping for something like a 2-1 loss or maybe even a draw. But I wish +2 was an option. Slavia has lost only three of its last 14 home European games (W7 D4).
Goodness, a 4.5. Bayern Munich is capable of topping this itself, sure, but out of principle I play this number in a Champions League match (maybe not domestically). Harry Kane has scored 44 goals in his 59 appearances in the Champions League. The most goals scored by a player who has made 60 appearances is Ruud van Nistelrooy with 48. Ideally, Kane doesn't tie that today unless Munich wants to keep a clean sheet. Club Brugge has to play mega-defensive to have a shot and has allowed the third-fewest goals in the Belgian Pro League. I'm hoping 3-1. Our model has about 3 goals scored.
My soccer betting strategy is clear: Back teams getting + at home in a sport where a draw is more often than not. Life isn't quite this simple, but how I do it regarding a decision as well: Things get better, stay the same or get worse. If something is two-thirds, that's my call and how I think of most soccer or hockey bets: Either things get better (win) or they stay the same (draw) and probably won't get worse (wife yells). Monaco has lost only one of its last 10 matches at home against English teams (W6 D3). I'll take either W7 or D4 on Wednesday. Spurs captain Cristian Romero and fullback Destiny Udogie missed Tuesday training and apparently are out.
Two evenly matched clubs, so I would have thought Napoli would be getting this number on the road and not PSV at home, but what do I know? PSV has won seven of its last 12 UEFA competition matches at home against Italian teams and drawn two others -- and all we want is a draw. The Dutch power has lost only three of its past 15 Champions League group stage/league phase matches (W6 D6) overall. Napoli, meanwhile, has dropped its past three away Champions League matches. Rasmus Hojlund, who has a team-best two UCL goals this season, is out injured for the Partenopei.
Bundesliga side Dortmund has lost only two of its past 13 European matches at home against Spanish teams (W7 D4) and just one of its past 18 UCL at home (W11 D6) overall. Serhou Guirassy has scored 15 goals in his first 19 Champions League appearances. I think only a draw bites us here as Athletic Club has lost its past three UEFA competition fixtures. Nico Williams remains the notable absence from Bilbao's squad. The side is winless in the five matches he has missed due to injury.