Do I feel I have found a bit of a system on hockey and soccer regarding home dogs ATS? For the most part, yes. But not blindly. I went chronologically on Tuesday in the UCL and first looked a good 20 minutes at Ajax. Didn't like what saw, so passed. Good thing. But Marseille :) As for Frankfurt (now I want a dog with sauerkraut, chili, mustard and onions), it is unbeaten in its past five in all competitions and kept two clean sheets in the past three. Serie A side Atalanta fired its manager, Ivan Juric, a couple of weeks ago basically because the Bergamo side kept drawing. It is winless in the past nine (mostly draws) if my math is right. #givemeadraw

Should Marseille, sitting second in Ligue 1, be a home dog Tuesday? Obviously, the Olympians aren't much of one but I'm always jumping on a situation like this when the teams are fairly evenly matched and these are. They come in off back-to-back blowout domestic wins. Marseille only has three losses in its past 21 home European games (W13 D5). The Magpies, meanwhile, have won their last three Champions League matches without conceding a goal but have never won four straight in the competition. They might even be a bit flat off Saturday's shock upset of Manchester City. It's possible Anthony Gordon is back for Newcastle, but I feel pretty good about at least a draw -- and the French definitely need a point.

Pretty much feel obligated to play Under 4.5 in most soccer games when teams are somewhat evenly matched. I mean, these aren't evenly matched but this is the Champions League so Kairat Almaty clearly isn't utterly terrible. This is the first match between these teams and the first time either club has faced opponents from the other's country. The Nerazzurri have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 12 Champions League group stage/league phase games. If they keep another one, I feel quite good about this. Our model basically has it 3-1.

The only previous match between these clubs was last season in the Europa League with Ajax winning 2-1 at home. I'm good with a draw today in the UCL. Ajax has won 12 of its previous 14 matches against Turkish teams (D1 L1) and is unbeaten at home (W7 D1). Galatasaray is winless in its past 10 European games (D3 L7). Midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and forward Yunus Akgun are out injured for the visitors. Akgun is second on the club with two UCL goals this term. Ajax has lost all three league phase matches thus far in the Champions League, so it's near desperation time today.

We have one outlier book with a 3.5 (rest at 2.5) on this Tuesday Champions League match so I'll take it even juiced -- lot of projections have this landing right on 3 goals. The teams most recently faced each other in the round of 16 in the 2022-23 UCL and Napoli winning both legs: 2-0 away and 3-0 at home. Frankfurt has lost its last three matches against Italian teams without scoring. Just two of Napoli's past eight matches this year in all leagues combined for at least 4 goals scored. None of Frankfurt's past 3 have.

Arsenal is miles better but also quite short-handed due injury: Viktor Gyökeres, Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Noni Madueke and Martin Odegaard are all sidelined today. Martín Zubimendi is suspended. Slavia has scored in 26 of its last 27 home European games. So we are obviously hoping for something like a 2-1 loss or maybe even a draw. But I wish +2 was an option. Slavia has lost only three of its last 14 home European games (W7 D4).

Goodness, a 4.5. Bayern Munich is capable of topping this itself, sure, but out of principle I play this number in a Champions League match (maybe not domestically). Harry Kane has scored 44 goals in his 59 appearances in the Champions League. The most goals scored by a player who has made 60 appearances is Ruud van Nistelrooy with 48. Ideally, Kane doesn't tie that today unless Munich wants to keep a clean sheet. Club Brugge has to play mega-defensive to have a shot and has allowed the third-fewest goals in the Belgian Pro League. I'm hoping 3-1. Our model has about 3 goals scored.

My soccer betting strategy is clear: Back teams getting + at home in a sport where a draw is more often than not. Life isn't quite this simple, but how I do it regarding a decision as well: Things get better, stay the same or get worse. If something is two-thirds, that's my call and how I think of most soccer or hockey bets: Either things get better (win) or they stay the same (draw) and probably won't get worse (wife yells). Monaco has lost only one of its last 10 matches at home against English teams (W6 D3). I'll take either W7 or D4 on Wednesday. Spurs captain Cristian Romero and fullback Destiny Udogie missed Tuesday training and apparently are out.

Two evenly matched clubs, so I would have thought Napoli would be getting this number on the road and not PSV at home, but what do I know? PSV has won seven of its last 12 UEFA competition matches at home against Italian teams and drawn two others -- and all we want is a draw. The Dutch power has lost only three of its past 15 Champions League group stage/league phase matches (W6 D6) overall. Napoli, meanwhile, has dropped its past three away Champions League matches. Rasmus Hojlund, who has a team-best two UCL goals this season, is out injured for the Partenopei.

Bundesliga side Dortmund has lost only two of its past 13 European matches at home against Spanish teams (W7 D4) and just one of its past 18 UCL at home (W11 D6) overall. Serhou Guirassy has scored 15 goals in his first 19 Champions League appearances. I think only a draw bites us here as Athletic Club has lost its past three UEFA competition fixtures. Nico Williams remains the notable absence from Bilbao's squad. The side is winless in the five matches he has missed due to injury.

Galatasaray lost its Champions League opener against Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1. But it is 7-0 in the Turkish Super League this season. Galatasaray has lost just one of its past eight UEFA competition matches at home against English teams (W4. D3). Liverpool has a single win in its past six UEFA competition matches away at Turkish sides (D1, L4). Our model has the final 1.3-0.7 in favor of Liverpool, which comes off its first EPL loss of the season on Saturday. It's the first meeting between the sides in nearly 20 years.

I always jump outlier lines and this is the only book with 3.5 we have as of now on this Champions League match for Tuesday, although it's surely possible the rest flip from 2.5 tomorrow. Will root for 2-1 as a draw seems unlikely considering Marseille has not drawn in its past 25 UCL matches (W5 L20) with the last a 0-0 stalemate away against Arsenal in November 2011. Marseille goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli joined the club from Ajax in summer 2024. Neither of these clubs saw more than 3 total goals scored in their 2025-26 UCL opener.

If I recall, Club Brugge was really good to me last Champions League season. Our model has the Belgians winning this match Thursday rather easily. They have lost only two of their last 17 European matches at home (W11 D4). Obviously we only need a draw. Monaco is winless in its past four vs. Belgian teams and has just one win in its past six Champions League matches overall (four losses, one draw).

Bayern has been dominant offensively in the early going, having scored 14 goals in three league games. Their last two at the Allianz Arena saw them score 11 goals without conceding. Bayern has won its opening match in each of last 21 Champions League campaigns, keeping 18 clean sheets. The Germans are unbeaten in their last 34 home group stage/league phase matches (W32 D2) in the Champions League. And they might have some inside info for this one as Nicolas Jackson joined Bayern on loan from Chelsea on Sept. 1.

It's the Champions League debut for Belgian side Union SG, the eighth Belgian team all-time to reach the group stage/league phase. Top defender and captain Christian Burgess is not expected to be available. Forward Raul Florucz is suspended. PSV has lost only two of its last 13 Champions League group/league matches (W6 D5) and is unbeaten in its past 11 UEFA club competition group/league matches at home (W7 D4). The Dutch side has scored in each of its last 16 UEFA club competition matches at home. PSV beat visiting Union SG 1-0 in a friendly in early July on a Joel Van Den Berg 57th minute goal.