NFL Week 9 ATS power ratings: Resetting after two months puts two teams tied at top, plus ranking all 32 teams
The Bills and 49ers lead the way in our power ratings reset as we near the midpoint of the 2026 NFL season
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Coming off a dominant win by the Bears in Seattle, this seems like the right time to examine our prior assumptions about every team, review eight weeks of data and redo our NFL power ratings from scratch. There are a few reasons why.
Trades are already affecting the landscape, with the Bears defense -- which entered the week last in the league in yards per play -- looking transformed with Jeffery Simmons on the field. It doesn't make sense to gradually lift the Bears' rating when they could now have a solid defense to pair with one of the best offenses in football. This also gives us a chance to throw expectations out the window. Rather than waiting every week for things to click for some teams or even individual units that aren't meeting expectations, we can be more honest about the team's current state and adjust as needed if things turn around.
With this reset, I've made the Bills and 49ers the top teams in my power ratings this week. I have major reservations about Buffalo's defense, but the unit has had enough time to settle into the new scheme coming out of the bye that it can only hold the offense back so much, and with that unit looking like the best in football, it's hard to take any other team straight up on a neutral field. The 49ers should come out of their bye healthier and with a defensive upgrade following the addition of DeForest Buckner, and they have a quarterback and coaching staff competing at a high level.
Below, I'll share my Week 9 spread power ratings and go step by step through the notable adjustments. Then, we'll look at my projected spreads for every game, see where we differ from the market, and try to ascertain why those discrepancies exist.
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