There’s upward movement coming with the Falcons line, so let’s lock it in before it reaches a full 4 points (though it’s worth taking at that number, too). While the Saints have been impressive winning and covering four straight, Tyler Shough does not have his top weapon in Chris Olave, who makes an outsized impact on the offense. Atlanta has similarly won and covered three straight. It's at home with all its playmakers active, including Drake London. We’re not getting the best number here, and the hook could wind up costing us, but in a week of slim pickings, the Falcons are a solid play given the circumstances.

Week eighteen is about opportunities. The New Orleans Saints are looking to finish off their year winning five straight games. They have endured big injuries to the offense and now will be without star wide receiver Chris Olave. This gives an opportunity to Kelvin Austin Jr. who is off a season high fifty two yards in last week’s win over Tennessee. He impresses once again and clears his yardage prop.

The Saints have something extra to play for this week...even if it doesn't directly impact them. With the Bucs cheering them on, Kellen Moore's troops can make it a surprising five wins on the spin to close the season as ex-Louisville QB Tyler Shough makes a late bid for Rookie of the Year. Across the past three games, Shough has passed for 250+ yards in each and not thrown an interception while firing four TD passes. Meanwhile, the D has allowed only 17 ppg across the win streak. Atlanta has been flying, too, and did win the first matchup 24-10 at the Superdome on November 23, but NFC sources wonder if the Falcons hit their crescendo when upsetting the Rams on Monday night. Play Saints

Bijan Robinson is 255 scrimmage yards away from beating Chris Johnson’s NFL single season record set back in 2009. It’s a big number, but I fully expect Robinson and the Falcons to push for it. He is over this combo line in 5 of his last 7 games, and has simply been unstoppable. Expect Bijan to be playing hard in the final week of the season, and to put up another video game stat line.

The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs around Halloween (so it feels like) but don't tell them that. They continue to fight every single week under rookie QB Tyler Shough covering numbers at a high pace exceeding oddsmaker expectations. I think we see a similar effort on Sunday against a divisional rival that beat them in their building. The Falcons played their best game of the season on Monday and being asked to replicate that on a short week covering by margin is a tall ask. Give us the hook in a game the Saints win outright on the field.

Currently, Bijan Robinson is RB3 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. He's had an amazing season, and can put a bow on it in Week 18 against the Saints. The Saints' defense gives up the 7th most rushing yards to running backs this year. And we know Robinson's explosive, elusive running style. Robinson has gone over this longest rush line in five of the last seven games. I think he'll soar past it on Sunday on the way to a big game.

Juwan Johnson has developed a great connection with rookie QB Tyler Shough. In the last two weeks, he has a total of 184 receiving yards. I think he'll keep it rolling in Week 18, mainly because star WR Chris Olave is out. So Johnson's 20% target rate will likely go up by a good margin this week. Look for Johnson to soar past this line again this week to close out the season strong with his rookie QB.

Kevin Austin flashed some efficiency last week against the Titans (4 of 5 for 52) and is averaging just over 4 targets over the last three games. Yes, that's a small sample size and the Falcons secondary is better than the Titans, but with Chris Olave out, Austin should be in line for even more targets. Tyler Shough continues to audition for the starting QB job for the Saints and a potential OROY award and he'll likely pepper Kevin Austin with enough volume to hit this number (Shough passing yards prop set at 230+ at most books which is very high considering Chris Olave is out for this game).

A significant absentee influences this pick. WR Chris Olave has been rookie QB Tyler Shough’s go-to guy. In the last three games, Olave corraled 24 passes, four for TDs, in a career year. He has been shelved by a blood clot. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins’ resurrection began midseason with a two-TD win over the Saints. Atlanta can cross the finish line with its fourth consecutive win outright without having to travel after the Monday night upset of the Rams. The league’s most outstanding player — as opposed to most valuable — is RB Bijan Robinson. While the NFL record for yards from scrimmage (255) might be out of reach, Robinson will still chase after it. He alone can lift the Falcons to a cover.

Chris Olave is out, removing Tyler Shough's No. 1 weapon. Shough has been impressive but he hasn't fared well under pressure and the Falcons have one of the NFL's top pass rushes. Raheem Morris, coaching for his job, wants to end on a four-game win streak while Kirk Cousins auditions for 2026. Back Atlanta to win and cover its fourth straight while sweeping the upstart Saints.

The Falcons are coming off an impressive win on national TV Monday, and this is a good spot to fade them on an inflated number. The Falcons' passing attack hasn't been all that impressive during their recent winning streak, and Drake London appears nowhere near 100%. The first meeting between these teams wasn't indicative of a 24-10 final, as four Saints drives ended in FG range with no points. Their passing attack has taken off the last two weeks (albeit against easy competition), and I think Tyler Shough plays well enough to keep this one within three.