FanDuel. Derrick Henry has cleared this line in four straight games. With Lamar Jackson coming off injury, I expect the Ravens to lean into the big dog on the ground, akin to the 36 totes he had last week. Plus, I do not expect much success for the Steelers offense, without DK Metcalf. I’d bet to over 94.5.

Caesar’s. This is a brutal spot for Pat Freiermuth, who will draw Kyle Hamilton in coverage. Despite the Steelers depleted receiving corps, Freiermuth struggles against man coverage, which the Ravens run at a top 5 rate. Plus, Aaron Rodgers tends to gravitate towards his running backs and receivers against man.

The Steelers are the second-worst matchup for opposing safeties. In the first meeting with Pittsburgh, Kyle Hamilton finished with one solo tackle and two assists. I expect the Steelers to struggle to sustain drives, and I bet Hamilton to finish with fewer than seven combined stops.

While Derrick Henry continues to be the bellcow and enjoyed an epic December, the Ravens are still mixing in Keaton Mitchell. He has six-plus carries in four straight games. Against Pittsburgh on Dec. 7, he erupted for 76 rushing yards on six carries. Look for Mitchell to get enough carries to surpass this low number.

Beyond the AFC North crown and an NFL playoff bid, this game could be a pendulum on which the futures of both coaches and quarterbacks are decided – as insane as that sounds. There’s rare pressure on John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, smoke around Lamar Jackson and retirement expectations for Aaron Rodgers. An all-out effort from Rodgers should be expected, but DK Metcalf’s absence severely limits the Steelers offense. How does Pittsburgh score? Jackson will be on two weeks rest; he went 18 of 23 with 4 TD the last time he was allowed to heal this season. The Ravens can control this game with Derrick Henry and play the possessions, plus Baltimore’s ceiling is higher, and it’s revenge-minded from the Dec. 7 loss.

This is largely a "I'm gonna watch it so may as well have a rooting interest" play because I couldn't care less about either team and can't say I feel mega-strongly. Well, I'd love the Ravens to send Aaron Rodgers into an ayahuasca-based retirement (please go away, but I am sure some network would try to hire him), so the best scenario I suppose would be a Baltimore 3-point win. The Steelers do get TJ Watt back, and the Ravens apparently have a bit of a bug going around -- that's happening all over the sporting place now. Lamar Jackson rarely plays well in Pittsburgh. An obviously unlikely tie works just as well for the Steelers in terms of winning the division.

Kenneth Gainwell is now the Steelers leader in receptions. He’s been a reliable short area target for Aaron Rodgers, and should continue to get looks tonight with WR DK Metcalf and TE Darnell Washington out for Pittsburgh. Gainwell has 30+ receiving yards in 6 games this season, and in 4 of his last 7. He has seen 6+ targets in 5 of his last 7 games, and had 6 receptions on 7 targets for 27 yards when these teams played a month ago. Gainwell should see enough volume to clear this receiving yards total.

Lamar Jackson has been flummoxed in visits to the Iron City. In four starts, he has thrown twice as many interceptions (six) as TD passes (three) while suffering 18 sacks. Dealing with injuries, he has endured his worst NFL season. His clearance to play has been headline news, which has obscurred a major Steelers development. Pass rush demon TJ Watt is poised to return from an injury layoff. WR DK Metcalf did QB Aaron Rodgers and teammates no favors by getting a two-game suspension, perhaps the costlest short-term sit-down in league annals. Here is counting on A-Rod to find solutions in an inspired performance that could mark his farewell. The hook matters here. It could come in handy in the event of a narrow margin.

This line is up to -160 on other books, so grab it now. Henry is a rushing TD away from tying Marcus Allen for 3rd all-time. He is also in a race against James Cook for most rushing yards, and Jonathan Taylor for most rushing TDs this season. The winner of this game takes the AFC North title and gets into the playoffs, so Henry should see his normal workload of 18+ carries. Henry has scored in 9/16 games this season, and has 6 in the last 2 games. This inconsistent Ravens offense will only go as far as Henry can take them.

In the last 11 meetings between these teams, the under is 9-2. Lamar Jackson has not been himself this season, so the Ravens offense should be looking to lean heavily on their workhorse Derrick Henry. The Steelers remain without WR1 DK Metcalf, and won’t have TE Darnell Washington either which really limits their lackluster offense. Pittsburgh’s defense will get a big boost with stud DE T.J Watt, and DBs James Pierre & Brandin Echols returning. The Steelers are 5-2 to the Under at home this season. This will be a grinding affair in the Pittsburgh cold that determines the AFC North winner. 19-16 final score prediction.

Zay Flowers caught eight passes for 124 yards in the first matchup with Pittsburgh. He excels against man-heavy defenses. While I’m not expecting a monster game from Flowers, this number is too low, especially with Lamar Jackson back. Look for the Steelers to go all-out to slow down Derrick Henry and for Flowers to take advantage.

DK Metcalf is still out (suspended) for the must-win game for the Steelers on Sunday night. Last week, when Metcalf was out, Marques Valdes-Scantling had an 82% snap count and received seven targets. He only turned those targets into 21 yards, but I think he can improve on that this week against the Ravens. Remember, just a few weeks ago, Metcalf had 142 receiving yards against the Ravens. A receiver is going to need to step up in this must-win game for the Steelers with Metcalf still out. I like Valdes-Scantling's familiarity with Rodgers to make him the top candidate. And this is a low line to go over considering his role this week and the matchup. I'll likely ladder this to 40 yards.

Ravens got steamed on Friday afternoon but I prefer to go against the move. Neither team is very good and I believe making Baltimore a 4.5-point road favorite is too high. The Ravens were actually better with Lamar Jackson not in the game last week when they leaned on Derrick Henry. Will Henry get the bulk of the action again with Lamar back? He sat out nearly the entire 4th quarter in a loss to the Patriots. I like Mike Tomlin as a home underdog in prime time and he has historically bounced back after a poor performance. Tomlin is 13-2 SU and 10-4-1 ATS when the Steelers score fewer than 10-points in their previous game, including 7-1-1 ATS when their record is above .500

Over the last two weeks, the Ravens have finally figured out the best pathway forward for the rest of this particular season and it's lean on Derrick Henry. Having Lamar Jackson back under Center gives them more in the passing game, but we'll see the Steelers struggle to stop Henry and also struggle to move the ball offensively without both DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington.

There's huge implications for this game, with the winner clinching the AFC North. With Lamar Jackson set to play, it opens up more opportunity for Henry as the Steelers defense will have to worry about QB1 and the passing game. With no DK Metcalf and no Darnell Washington, I see the Ravens building a nice lead here, so game script should bode well. Henry is coming off a 36 carry game against the Packers and had 19+ carries in all but two of the last 7 wins -- one missing by the hook. Henry also thrives later in the season -- averaging the most rush yards per game (103.8) in December and beyond in NFL history. The Steelers allow an average of 22+ carries/game.

There are two possible scenarios I see for this game: either the Ravens offense cooks and Baltimore wins by double digits, or it doesn't and the Steelers win outright. I can't see the Steelers offense having the same success it did in the first meeting when DK Metcalf had 149 receiving yards and the rest of the offense didn't do much, particularly running the ball. Pittsburgh couldn't stop Baltimore's run game on that day, and the Ravens have averaged 224 rush yards in their last four games. I've played Ravens -9.5 at +200, as I think you should either look for an aggressive alt on Baltimore or just take Pittsburgh on the money line.