Heavy skepticism about the Jaguars has cost us all season, but in this spot, against a Colts team that was exposed by the 49ers last week, they are the play with the number comin down so signficiantly from a weekly high of nearly a TD. Indianapolis has been eliminated from the playoffs and lost this matchup by 17 points when Daniel Jones was healthy. Backing a team like Jacksonville coming off a monster win like it got in Denver last week is tough to stomach, but the line makes this a tasty option.

This game is going to mean more to Phillip Rivers and the Colts. Jacksonville has already clinched their playoff spot and Rivers has progressed over the last two weeks despite the small, recent, sample size. The line continues to move in the Colts favor even though they were eliminated from the playoffs last night. Jacksonville has won four of the last five meetings between these two but in their final home game, the Colts should step up for their home fans and Rivers.

Sports sometimes show us that it is not about winning, it is about competing. We saw that last week with the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football against the San Francisco 49ers. They lost, but everyone was surprised with how well Philip Rivers performed. A player I expect to break out today is Tyler Warren. Warren has not eclipsed his prop five straight games, but is coming off his second most targets on the season with nine. Take Warren’s over.

Colts linebacker Germaine Pratt made six combined tackles last week vs. the 49ers, despite San Fran running 66 plays. The Jaguars are not a good matchup for opposing linebackers, generating an average of 14 per game to the position the last three weeks. For the season the Jags' offense is generating the fourth-fewest tackles for opposing LBs.

The Colts have been eliminated, and their reeling defense just put DeForest Bucker on injured reserve. Yes, Sauce Gardner returns, but the Jaguars have too many weapons for Indy to keep up, even with Philip Rivers getting the start. Jacksonville won the first matchup 36-19 and this could be something similar. With the Texans winning Saturday night, the Jaguars need to win out to ensure they win the AFC South.

The Colts' shoddy defense against the tight end position was on full display in Monday night's loss to San Francisco. Now it's Brenton Strange's turn to get loose. He's had a reception of 21 yards or longer in five of his past six games. His one miss came against these Colts when Strange caught a 16-yard pass. That game was played in a driving rain, while this one will be indoors. With Sauce Gardner returning for Indy, Trevor Lawrence also might look inside more Sunday.

Phillip Rivers threw for 35 pass attempts on Monday night against the 49ers, which was more volume than most thought we’d see from the 44 year old. Rivers should be looking to make the most of his last couple games this season, and now faces a zone-heavy Jaguars defense in this matchup. That’s good news for Colts WR1 Michael Pittman, who has seen his target share increase against zone. Pittman has 5+ catches in 9 games this season, and went off against the Jags for 9 receptions on 12 targets just a few weeks ago. If Rivers and the Colts offense stays pass-happy, Pittman should get plenty of looks.

The whole country got to see the Colts defense get carved up by the 49'ers on Monday. This, coupled with the biggest win of the season for Jacksonville, beating the Broncos at Mile High, had this line open at an inflated number of 7. It has since come down to as low as 5.5 and may go lower. I love getting 6 and would not want to settle for much less. This is a division game. I expect a tighter result than by a touchdown. Final home game for Indy and I believe we get an all-out effort against their division nemesis. Stock at rock bottom for the Colts and sky high on the Jags, I'll take the division home dog with the points.

This line so simply too low for Brian Thomas Jr. who is still an elite talent despite his disappointing production. There is a lot of reasons to be optimistic considering BTJs role in the offense, Trevor Lawrence improving, and this looks like a great matchup as well. Last week Thomas was shadowed primarily by Pat Surtain and an elite Denver coverage unit. That will not be the case against a depleted Colts secondary who have become a significant pass funnel. Thomas is running routes deep down the field and this is an excellent spot that I’ll also be aggressively laddering.

Colts QB Philip Rivers was much improved in his second appearance Monday after a five-year NFL hibernation, but Indy’s defense resorted to some bad old ways. The superior QB now is not the Hall of Famer, Class of 2030, but Trevor Lawrence, perhaps Class of Never. He has been on a tear and should be able to extend it against a barely perceptible pass rush. The Colts have dropped five consecutively SU in stark contrast to the Jags stringing together six straight Ws — by a staggering average margin of 18.6. Never mind that Rivers has been this large of an underdog once before in his illustrious career. This is Philip 2.0.

Philip Rivers has held his own in his return from retirement, but he faded late in the 49ers game and threw a back-breaking pick-six to put the game out of reach. The Colts also couldn't run the ball or get any stops against the 49ers, who didn't punt in the game. This week's matchup could be a similar situation against a Jaguars team with a QB playing out of his mind and a strong rush defense that gave Jonathan Taylor fits in the first meeting. The Jaguars have scored 25+ in eight straight since the bye, and the Colts secondary should be no match for Jacksonville's depth at receiver. I could see the Jags getting to 40 in this one.