Plenty was made about Joe Burrow’s comments, some believing he wants to leave the Bengals. The way it came across to me? He’s sick of losing and imploring both his team to play better and Cincinnati to make some serious changes. The Ravens are struggling to get pressure, which means Burrow should have plenty of time to pick them apart. Chase Brown can run well enough to keep Baltimore honest, and the visitors have not proven to be capable with this limited version of Lamar Jackson. The Bengals have covered three straight, and if the Dolphins win Monday, they are live to win their division. Tee Higgins being out hurts, but Burrow can get it done with Ja’Marr Chase and whoever else. Moneyline sprinkle, too.

I like this matchup for Isaiah Likely today. The Bengals are by far the worst defense against tight ends, allowing an average of 96.8 yards per game. Likely has nine catches for 120 yards on 12 targets in his last two games. One of those games was two weeks ago vs. the Bengals where Likely racked up 95 yards. If Likely sees the six targets he has in the last two games, I think he goes over this number.

Likely played the Bengals 2 weeks ago and went for 5 Rec/95 yards. Cincy allow the most targets, receptions, and yards per game to opposing TEs. Likely has been more effective than Mark Andrews as a pass catcher, and I expect him to clear this receiving yards total if he sees 5-6 targets.

Tee Higgins has been ruled out of this game, which should almost guarantee Chase his 10-15 targets. These teams played two weeks ago, and Chase smoked the Ravens for 7 receptions and 100 receiving yards on 14 targets. He destroyed Baltimore for massive games last season as well. The Ravens secondary let D.K Metcalf go off for 148 receiving yards last week. Chase can easily burn them for 100+, so I’m willing to play the over even at this big number.

FanDuel. Chase Brown had seven catches on seven targets against the Ravens two weeks ago. Granted, Joe Burrow did throw 46 passes in that game, but I do like Brown in this matchup. The Ravens defense has allowed a lot of running back receiving volume of late, and Burrow will once again be without Tee Higgins. The rest of the Bengals receivers are low volume, and Mike Gesicki has a tough matchup against Kyle Hamilton. Brown is now over this line in four of the last five with Joe Burrow and without Tee Higgins since becoming a starter last year - and 16 total catches in two of those instances against the Ravens.

Despite the frigid conditions, Isaiah Likely should thrive in this matchup like he did on Thanksgiving, when he caught five of six targets for 95 yards. Lamar Jackson targeted Likely six times again last week vs. Pittsburgh. With the mishaps that have befallen Likely in those critical losses, I'm expecting another big performance from him against the NFL's worst tight-end defense.

Winter after winter, we see Derrick Henry heat up when the weather gets cold. Who would want to tackle that freight train in the freezing cold? We also know the Bengals are a good matchup for opposing running backs. The Bengals give up the most rushing yards to running backs (1,643). Henry exceeded this longest rush line in the matchup two weeks ago on Thanksgiving (28 yards longest rush). I like him to exceed his longest rush prop again against this Bengals run defense.

Against the Ravens, in nine career games, Ja'Marr Chase averages 119.1 receiving yards per game. In the last three matchups against the Ravens, with Joe Burrow as his QB, Chase has long receptions of 43 yards (2025 - two weeks ago), 70 (2024), and 70 (2024). Especially with Tee Higgins out, I like targeting a lot of Chase's props, but I especially like his longest reception. With Joe Burrow last year, he exceeded this longest reception line in 12 of 17 games in 2024. I like him to exceed this line again against the Ravens on Sunday.

I wrote up Mark Andrews' Anytime Touchdown for the Thanksgiving night game. He was open for a score that night, but the ball was tipped. His tight end counterpart, Isaiah Likely, almost scored that night against the Bengals, too, but the ball was fumbled at the goal line and went through the end zone. We know that the Bengals give up the most touchdowns to tight ends by a wide margin. The Bills' tight ends scored two touchdowns last week. I'll bet both Andrews and Likely to score ATD, and if one hits, it will still be profitable.

Just like my Ricky Pearsall play, I think this has ladder potential but it's admittedly a touch more speculative. We've seen the target share soar for Tinsley when one of the star receivers are out for the Bengals. In fact, last time Tee Higgins was out was two weeks ago against this same Ravens team and Tinsley had 9 targets (he only caught 2 for 22 yards). In spite of that inefficiency, the coaching staff rhetoric hasn't waivered off Tinsley and I expect him to share targets as a de facto WR2 with Iosivas and "TE" Mike Gesicki. Burrow will be throwing it all over the yard and Tinsley will have his opportunities to redeem himself from a couple weeks ago.

Joe Burrow's cryptic midweek comments aside, we're still quite excited to ride the Bengals this week. Though chances to win the AFC North are remote, the Burrow-led Cincy is capable of winning out and forcing the Steelers and Ravens to show a bit more before they can get across the line. Two weeks ago on Thanksgiving night, Burrow returned to active duty and passed for 290 yards in a 32-14 win at Baltimore, which has been riding on fumes lately. If that much; the Ravens have dropped four straight vs. the number as it is apparent that Lamar Jackson is nowhere near 100%, his hamstring and other ailments preventing his normal electric bolts from the pocket. Play Bengals

I like the Ravens to even the season series here and I recommend grabbing this before it goes to 3. Baltimore has gone 1-2 in its last 3 games, all at home. Now they get to go on the road and leave behind some of that pressure, expectation, and focus on the task at hand, looking to make amends for what was an awful Thanksgiving in losing to these same Bengals - who will be without Tee Higgins. The hopes of making the postseason were dashed last week in Buffalo when the Bengals fell to the Bills. I'm not sure how much is left in the tank for this team. Getting out on the road and letting it rip, Ravens ought to win this handily.

With QB Lamar Jackson besieged by nagging injuries, Baltimore's offense has slumped to a No. 19 rating. The Ravens have not exceeded 23 points in their last four outings. Scratch out the first four games of the season, all high-scoring. This is a different team. Certainly, Cincy's shoddy defense and Joe Burrows being back behind center after an injury rehab are elements to create a pile of points. But it takes two to tango, and the Ravens seem unlikely to engage in a shootout as long as Jackson is limping around.