The line flipped here with Jayden Daniels returning for the Commanders, and that’s OK. They’re the better offense with Terry McLaurin in the lineup, and Daniels can extend plays with his legs. This is the healthiest Washington has been on that side of the ball in a while. Minnesota’s defense is the best unit in the game by far, but its talented offense is hampered by QB play. The Commies are 10-ply defensively compared to the Seahawks and Packers, which held the Vikings to 6 total points in their last two games, but considering Minnesota doesn’t run the ball enough to establish possessions, it may not matter. On a margin call, I’ll take the better QB even in a tough road environment.

For the Commanders we think the return of Jayden Daniels is a plus; for the Vikes, the return of JJ McCarthy,...we're not so sure. Te Commanders' seven-game losing streak has lasted long enough, especially as the team hasn't looked so bad behind Marcus Mariota in recent weeks. While the playoffs seem a lost cause, Dan Quinn's squad might have found something in last week's gallant OT loss to Denver, utilizing more quick-hitters on offense and improved schemes on defense. Nothing this season has suggested that the return of JJ McCarthy to the Vikings' lineup is going to be a plus save for the fact he'll likely be an improvement upon last week's rookie starter, Max Brosmer. Play Commanders

Veteran linebacker Eric Wilson is enjoying a career year with the Vikings, the team he originally signed with as an undrafted free agent out of Cincinnati. Wilson is playing every down, has 4.5 sacks and is coming off an 11-tackle performance in Seattle. Washington is an excellent matchup for opposing linebackers. Look for Wilson to register at least seven tackles for the seventh time in his last 11 games.

It is hard to trust Justin Jefferson because of his quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Jefferson only as two touchdowns on the season because of the poor quarterback play. But if there were ever a week to find the end zone again, it would be against this Washington defense, which gives up a 7.9% touchdown rate to wide receivers. Washington has given up the 5th most touchdowns to wide receivers this season (14). Jefferson still has a high target rate from McCarthy (31%). And now we get Jefferson priced at +155 in a buy-low spot. I like this price for Jefferson to find the end zone on Sunday.

There's no way to sugarcoat what we've seen from the Vikings offensively the last few weeks; it's been dreadful. However look at the recent schedule of opponents since their bye week: Eagles, @ Chargers, @ Lions, Ravens, Bears, @ Packers, @ Seahawks...there's no cupcake there. Here comes a Commanders team that gets their starting QB back but doesn't offer a defense anywhere close to this list (ok maybe the Bears). I'm buying the Vikings at the bottom of the market given their 1-6 ATS run now that the line has flipped with Jayden Daniels status. Nothing fun about backing JJ McCarthy these days yet every team has its buy point and this is mine for KOC.

Minnesota was previously a favorite in this game and I agree. The number has now flipped with the confirmation that Daniels is expected to play. Truly, a favorite of 1 or 2 points either way is not very significant - 3 is when it gets serious and I don't expect it to go there. Last week was Washington's SuperBowl, off a bye, having lost 6-straight. Daniels has only played a handful of games this whole season. His return will not change this team much. Off a shutout, the Vikings will be determined to turn it around at home. McCarthy, Jefferson, Aaron Jones.. the defense. Everyone should be better for what I believe will be an outright Minnesota win at -2.5 or less.

DraftKings. Chris Rodriguez has emerged as the lead back for the Commanders. He’s cleared this line in three of his last four games, taking control of the early downs. In terms of volume, it’s an elite matchup against the Vikings, who struggle mightily with ball control. The Vikings allow the most running back rush attempts per game (27). When JJ McCarthy starts, that number bumps up to 28.5 over his six starts.

I expect this game to stay competitive with Jayden Daniels now playing (honestly, I would have said the same with Mariota) and that means the run game should stay fully integrated. Chris Rodriguez will be the lead back in most neutral and positive game scripts and we've seen evidence of that with 11+ carries in 3 of the last 4 games (granted, two went to OT). I don't expect Croskey-Merritt or MchNichols to get much run, but even if they get more than expected, I think Rodriguez gets to 11 carries. I lean to his yardage over as well at 40.5.

Why is a team that last won SU on Oct. 5 laying points? Answer: when its standout QB is back from injury rehab. The announcement of Jayden Daniels' return Friday flipped the favoritism. The difference in the young QBs is vast, with J.J. McCarthy looking nothing like a recent first-round pick. Minnesota has not managed a cover in the four most recent games while getting outscored by 53 points. The Commanders' O-line has protected passers well with five sacks allowed in the last three outings, so Daniels should be afforded time to work his magic.

The Commanders gave a spirited performance coming off their bye, losing by one in overtime to Denver. It was Washington's second solid effort in a row. Terry McLaurin's return made a huge difference, as did the presence of Daron Payne and Will Harris on defense. Now Washington visits a reeling Vikings team dealing with internal turmoil. It is unclear at the moment whether J.J. McCarthy and Jayden Daniels will return. Regardless, I like the Commanders to pull out the win.

Washington has lost seven straight games, but the Commanders' performance against Denver shows that they're miles ahead of the Vikings right now. Minnesota's defense had every answer for its former QB Sam Darnold, holding Seattle to 219 yards and 3.6 yards per play, and the Vikings still lost 26-0 because they continue to get the worst QB play this century. J.J. McCarthy was just as bad as Max Brosmer in his last start, so I'm not sure it matters who's starting at QB in this matchup, and I don't know how much fight the rest of the team has after seeing what they're getting from the QB position. I moved Minnesota down next to Cleveland in my ratings and that still might be too high.