Pulling a Costanza by going against my natural instinct and siding with the Giants – not only because of the Jaxson Dart return but rather how injured the Patriots are up front on both sides. New England has benefitted from among the easiest schedules in the NFL, while New York has been up against a gauntlet and largely fought in those games. The Giants are obviously better with Dart behind center, and his ability to extend plays with his legs should keep the Pats defense off balance. In what should be a slower game, points may be at a premium, and I’ll happily take 7.5 of them. Give me chicken salad on rye, untoasted, with a side of potato salad and a cup of tea.

FanDuel. Theo Johnson has only cleared 4+ catches in three of 12 games, but in six of those misses, he had three grabs. But this is a plus spot against the Patriots defense that allows the sixth most targets per game (8.42) and the fifth most catches (6.33) to the position. And the Pats run the eighth most man coverage - Johnson has the most receptions against man in Jaxson Dart’s starts. Gamescript should run negative for the Giants in the second half, and the jury is out on whether Dart will be running at his normal rate after his concussion issues. Johnson should see at least six targets, by my projections, making this a nice spot at plus or short odds.

TreVeyon Henderson has drawn nine targets in the past couple weeks, both games in which New England led for long stretches. With the Patriots dealing with offensive line issues, look for Drake Maye to use Henderson as an outlet multiple times. He has the explosiveness to potentially clear this prop total in one catch.

Jaxson Dart is back for the Giants. New York has blown five games this season when leading by 10, or more, points in the fourth quarter, most in NFL history. Three of New England’s last four games have been decided within a touchdown. Despite their 2-10 SU record and being winless on the road, Dart gives the Giants a better chance to stay within the number here. New York’s interim DC, Charlie Bullen, is all about aggressiveness and will look to take advantage of a Patriots offensive line dealing with key injuries.

Jaxson Dart is starting at quarterback for the Giants, and that means he's going to go run for over 54 yards because he's done it in five of his seven games. He might say that he's going to play cool and stay in concussion protocol, but once the game starts, he's not going to be able to change the way he plays. He knows the Giants are successful when he takes things into his own hands. Now they've only won two games with him playing, but he showed he's got the moxie that it's going to take to bring success to the Giants. Dart over 26 rushing yards.

FanDuel. While the rush attempts line for TreVeyon Henderson admittedly opened way too high this week at 15.5, the movement all the way down to 13.5 reads as an overreaction. Henderson has cleared this line in four straight games, which included an 18-6 carry split with Rhamandre Stevenson who returned last week (to a 6 attempt, 5 rushing yard performance). Even if Henderson cedes a bit more, this is too good of a spot not to back the rookie. The Giants are 32nd in both DVOA and EPA per attempt against the run. It’s a matchup the Patriots are sure to look to exploit, especially as 7-7.5 point favorites. I have Henderson projected at 15 rush attempts, so I’ll gladly buy the dip here.

The Patriots are stuck dealing with key injuries on the offensive line, and this is the perfect matchup to counter those issues by leaning on the run game. The Giants have given up 6.2 yards per carry to RBs this season, and they've surrendered 185.5 rushing yards per game over the last six weeks. This isn't even a high number for Henderson, who saw 18 carries last week despite Rhamondre Stevenson's return, as he's gotten to 62 yards in four of his last five and three straight. Love the matchup, love the workload. I'd play anything in the 60s here.

Patriots wideout Kayshon Boutte returned from a hamstring injury last week at Cincinnati and finished with two catches for 15 yards. But he led the team in routes. Boutte wasn't on the injury report this week. He's facing an aggressive Giants' defense that plays man coverage at the third-highest rate. Boutte creates great separation, averages 17.8 yards per catch and is Drake Maye's favorite deep threat.

Theo Johnson excels against man coverage, which the Patriots play at the ninth-highest rate. The Patriots have three good corners in Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones but their linebackers have struggled to stay with tight ends. Johnson has overcome his early-season drops and has a strong connection with Jaxson Dart. I like Johnson Over on catches and receiving yards, but prefer to bet him this way and bank on one explosive play.

Though Jameis Winston gave the G-Men a fighting chance at QB the past two weeks, tonight's return of Jaxson Dart to the lineup should be a plus for New York, which if nothing else has shown a fighting spirit and sense of swashbuckling in two games under interim HC Mike Kafka (who also just dismissed DC Shane Bowen) . Dart was good enough to beat the Chargers and Eagles earlier and come within a whisker of beating the Broncos in Denver. Three straight spread covers for the Giants suggests this price should intrigue, especially as Mike Vrabel's high-flying Patriots have cut it close a few times in recent weeks even as they haven't lost a game outright since September 21 vs. the Steelers. Play Giants

Dart is only over this line in 3/7 games this season, but his misses were 195, 193, 191, and a low total in his first NFL start. Coming out of concussion protocol, Giants coaches and fans are hoping Dart protects himself more responsibly. This could lead to fewer scrambles and more passing, which is where the Patriots defense is easiest to beat, ranking 27th in defensive pass DVOA. The +7.5 Giants may be in a trailing game script, which would help this prop get over this modest total. Dart went for 283 against the Broncos and 242 against the Bears in his last game. He can get 200+ against the Patriots.

Tyrone Tracy has exceeded this rushing attempt number in each of his last three games and that was against some solid rush defenses. The Patriots are another elite rush defense as far as the metrics go, but they are without Milton Williams and that should keep Tracy very involved the gameplan. Devin Singletary will steal some carries from Tracy, but expect a heavy dose of the run game with Tyrone Tracy leading the way. I also like his over of 47.5 Rush Yards.

I bet on Johnson to go over his receiving yards total, and I'm playing .5unit on him as well. All 5 of Johnson's TDs this season have been thrown by Jackson Dart. The Patriots have struggled to defend opposing TE's, and Johnson leads the Giants with 12 red zone targets. Simple enough equation for me to want to sprinkle the TD.

Johnson is over this receiving yards number in 6/12 games this season, and has thrived with Jackson Dart under center. Johnson is over this line in 3 straight games, and has logged a 15+ yard grab in 6 games this season. He gets a strong matchup here against a Patriots defense that ranks bottom-five in yards and receptions allowed to opposing TEs. Johnson has 5+ targets in 7 games this year, and I expect Dart to look for him often.

The 10-2 Patriots have been impressive, but they aren’t beating many teams by this kind of margin. The Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, Saints, Falcons, Buccaneers, and Bengals all lost to the Pats by 7 or less (Raiders actually won! #lol). The Giants are changing for the better under interim HC Mike “Metamorphosis” Kafka (high level literary joke), and finally got rid of their struggling DC Shane Bowen. The Giants best strength is their pass rush, and they’ll be facing a beat up New England O-line missing stud LT Will Campbell and C Jared Wilson. Vedarian Lowe at LT sounds like trouble. Jaxson Dart is back, and I like him to play Drake Maye competitively in Primetime. Grab the 7 & the hook while it’s still around.

How unusual to feel confidence in an NFL team when a rookie QB who was not a starter at the dawn of the season returns from an injury hiatus. Jaxson Dart has guided the Giants to both SU victories with a LB mentality that has juiced up his teammates. Without him, New York has stayed inside this number in three consecutive outings. The Patriots are dealing with an injury outbreak. OLT Will Campbell went on injured reserve this week, while OG Jared Wilson is out as well. Several teammates sat out Friday's practice. Going against a new defensive coordinator, New England and its makeshift O-line might see new looks from the Giants' D.

The Giants are playing hard for interim coach Mike Kafka, losing one-score games to the Packers and Lions. Now they take on another high-level team, but the Pats' win in Cincinnati was costly. Starting left tackle Will Campbell and starting left guard Jared Wilson weren't the only Pats knocked out. They also lost All-Pro special teamer Brenden Schooler and starting defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga to injury. Whether it's Jameis Winston or Jaxson Dart at quarterback, I like the Giants getting over a touchdown. New York also could get a boost from the long-overdue firing of defensive coordinator Shane Bowen.

The Patriots are on a nine-game winning streak, but the cracks may be starting to show. Drake Maye had accuracy issues in what should've been the easiest matchup he may ever see against a historically bad Bengals defense. The offense's issues from last year may return with the injuries up front, particularly to left tackle Will Campbell, and this is not an ideal matchup for a significant downgrade in protection on the edge. The Giants went blow for blow with the Lions, and I can't see a repeat of their late defensive meltdown with the Patriots' downgraded O-line. While my ratings think this should be 7, I expect it'll end up being another close game for both teams.