Look, this season hasn't gone the way that Chubba Hubbard expected dealing with injury and then losing his job to Rico Dowdle. However we're starting to see some tread on Dowdle's tires and there appears to be a path for Hubbard to get back in the mix. Over his last 5 games he's had a rushing floor of 14 yards and being given touches to spell RB1. If that trend continues today I think he's got an excellent chance to get to 20+ so it's worth a small bet in Santa Clara

This line would be outsized if Bryce Young were not coming off a career game against the dreary Falcons. Interestingly, over the last five games, Carolina has been better on the road (3-0 SU/ATS) than at home (0-2 SU/ATS), yet the game that most closely projects to Monday night vs. 49ers was Panthers-Bills when Carolina entered as 7.5-point underdog and lost by 31. San Francisco allowed 452 yards passing last week yet won by 19, and Carolina’s run-centric offense should limit its possessions. Five of its six losses have come by double digits. The Niners are a far better offense than the Panthers faced at the Packers, and Christian McCaffrey may go off. Don’t go past -7. Consider a sprinkle on the 49ers first half.

The 49ers are dead last in pressure rate, so Bryce Young should be fairly comfortable in the pocket. His young receivers are showing growth. And he’s coming off a monster performance. With Carolina expected to be playing from behind, I bet Young to clear this relatively modest total.

With Tampa Bay off of another loss on Sunday and Baker Mayfield's status now in question, the door is open for the Panthers to move into first in the NFC South with a win tonight. Yet, is Carolina up to it? Before last week's rally in Atlanta, the Panthers offense had generated 45 points total in the preceding four games. Now Carolina faces a revived 49ers team that welcomed Brock Purdy back to the lineup with great results last week at Arizona, and with George Kittle having previously returned to active duty, SF is getting healthy at the same time the schedule is offering them a way forward to stay very relevant in the NFC wild card hunt. Play 49ers.

DraftKings. Tre’von Moehrig has only cleared this line in five of 11 games this season, but is coming off a 7 and 11 tackle game, respectively. This is a smash spot for the safety, against the 49ers who allow the second most tackles per game, and specifically the most tackles to opposing safeties. Eleven safeties have cleared this line against the 49ers over their last seven games. Juicy, but I like this up to -150.

I'm on a similar prop for this player, but I want to take advantage of this number as well. Pearsall was MIA in his return to action on Sunday, but Kyle Shanahan heaped praise on how he looked and credited the coverage for keeping him out of the gameplan rather than looking less than 100%. Pearsall's lines in the prop market are treating him like he's not fully healthy, and that's a mistake for a guy who caught four passes in every start prior to last week. That baseline means a 3.5 receptions line should be juiced to the Over, not heavily to the Under, so I love this value.

The 49ers scored 41 last week while getting two key pieces back on offense, yet while Pearsall was on the field, you could barely tell. However, I see him getting over his one-catch week with a good performance here against a Panthers defense that has allowed a receiver to rack up 88+ yards in seven of the last eight games (and 60 yards to a Jets receiver in the outlier week). Pearsall was a victim of circumstance in terms of targets last week but looked healthy, so he shouldn't be discounted this much after averaging 89.5 yards in his previous six starts dating back to last year, including the one in which he suffered an injury and left early. Ladder this one up to 80.

FanDuel. Ja’Tavion Sanders has cleared this line in five of eight games this season. Splitting time at tight end with Tommy Tremble, this matchup does favor Sanders, who is more of a receiving threat. The 49ers have really struggled against tight-ends since losing Fred Warner for the season. Over the last six games, the 49ers are allowing 67 yards per game to the position. Sanders, who is already second in targets per route run amongst the primary pass catchers of the Panthers, should be able to exploit the 49ers linebacker core, which is without both Warner and Tatum Bethune tonight. I’d bet this up to over 19.5 receiving yards.

The Panthers have been giving up explosive plays to everyone. They've surrendered a 35+ yard pass in 7 straight games! Even in their 16-13 upset win over the Packers, they gave up a 52-yard bomb. The Saints hit two 50+ yard plays on them, and the Niners should have the same opportunities. Their offense is finally healthy, and I expect Purdy to expose the Panthers bottom five-ranked pass defense.

I expect the 49ers offense to come out hot, and get them out to an early lead. If they're playing in a positive game script, Robinson should get his touches. Robinson is over this rushing yards mark in 3 straight games, and has gotten 8+ carries in his last two. He's gotten 5+ carries in 8 games this season and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The Panthers are missing ILB’s Christian Rozeboom and Trevin Wallace, which the Niners could look to exploit on the ground. Robinson seems to be playing his best ball now, and I like him to get involved enough to go over this total.

As I was beginning to put this pick through, the line jumped from 204.5 to 208.5 at Fanduel and 206.5 to 208.5 at Draftkings (I hope that doesn't end up mattering). Bryce Young has only exceeded this number twice this year, but I think all the ingredients are present for a solid passing day as he's got his full complement of receivers, a likely negative game script, a high projected point total and a 49ers defense that can't rush the passer. Yes, the Panthers will try to run the ball, but they haven't been quite as efficient in that department and I suspect Robert Saleh will force Bryce Young to lean on his arm just like he was forced to (successfully) do last week.

Grabbing this line at -7. The Panthers have pulled off some upsets this season, but I still don’t believe they are a good football team. A lot of their successes can be attributed to their opponent’s ineptitude. Carolina just recently lost to the Saints 17-7, and I think we are more likely to see that version of Bryce Young and this Panthers offense. The injury-ridden Niners defense has struggled this season, but I expect them to play motivated at home here after a poor showing last week. This 49ers offense is finally healthy, and they were already #3 in offensive pass DVOA with Mac Jones under center. I don’t think Carolina will be able to keep up in this one. Niners roll.

I’m on Kittle to go Over his receiving yards mark tonight, and I’m playing .5u on him to score as well. Kittle scored twice last week with Brock Purdy back at the helm. He has 5 TDs and has scored in 4/6 games he’s played in this season. Bet on Kittle in a plus-matchup at home against the Panthers.

Kittle is over this receiving yards mark in consecutive games, and is thrilled to have Brock Purdy back under center. In their first game back together, Kittle had 6 receptions on 6 targets for 60+ yards and 2 TDs. Kittle has been highly efficient, hauling in 23 of his last 24 targets. He has a great matchup against the Panthers here, who have been burnt by several tight ends this season. Carolina surrendered 75+ receiving yards to Cardinals TE Trey McBride, Dolphins TE Darren Waller, and most recently Saints TE Juwan Johnson. Kittle should destroy the Panthers 26th ranked pass DVOA defense.

Tet McMillan's three best games -- vs. Arizona, Buffalo and Atlanta last week -- all came when he lined up in the slot at least 10 times. I'm betting Carolina coaches will give McMillan that opportunity Monday; San Francisco has been routinely torched by slot receivers. McMillan has a 29.6 percent first-read target share this season. Over the past four games, he has a 29.8 percent target share, period. The 49ers aren't pressuring opposing QBs, so Bryce Young should have time to find his favorite target repeatedly. A negative game script is expected, which should only increase McMillan's opportunities.

The 49ers look great offensively with Brock Purdy and his weapons back on the field. But their injury-depleted defense should give Carolina a great chance to cover. Over the past four games, San Francisco ranks 30th in success rate allowed. Since Week 4, the 49ers are last with a 27 percent pressure rate. With Bryce Young practicing fully, back Carolina to cover for the eighth time in its last 11 games.

Bryce Young comes off a career best performance in an overtime win at Atlanta while Brock Purdy made a triumphant return after missing six games with turf toe and looked almost perfect in his win at Arizona. The 49ers are barely in the playoff mix at 7-4 while the Panthers are sniffing a berth at 6-5. The Panthers have won their last three road games which includes a 16-13 win at Green Bay. The Panthers are getting more confident every week as Bryce Young matures and they're going to make that strong bid for the playoffs. Panthers cover at San Francisco.

The 49ers have Brock Purdy back and will be able to shred the Panthers early on offense. What will result is Carolina throwing it around on the 49ers injury-depleted defense. San Francisco might cover, but the Panthers are the most easily swayed tempo team in football. They want to run and if they don't do it early, they'll bail and let Bryce Young throw for 448 yards -- the most ever in a single game by a Panthers quarterback and somehow no one noticed. This has all the makings of a sneaky shootout.