Here's a QB switch that could be beneficial. The Jets could not be worse without bumbling Justin Fields, and Tyrod Taylor is a seasoned fill-in. He rarely wins outright, but an ATS triumph is doable. It was a typical week in Baltimore's camp as Lamar Jackson sat out more practices. You wonder if an accumulation of niggling ailments is taking its toll. He’s getting sacked at the highest rate ever, and New York has upended the passer eight times in the past two weeks. The Jets have covered in all but one of the last five. Rookie head coach Aaron Glenn has them playing with vigor, so this is no walkover for the Ravens.

Mark Andrews is still getting accolades for his 35-yard touchdown run last week. That said, this receiving number looks too high to me. He has gone Under this prop total in seven straight games and nine of 10 this season. Isaiah Likely is healthy and running nearly as many routes as Andrews. The Jets are giving up the 10th-fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends. If this game turns into a blowout, we could see lower passing volume from Baltimore, too.

The Jets will start backup QB Tyrod Taylor, who is probably an upgrade at QB. Taylor gives New York the ability to throw the ball downfield a bit more, and I expect him to air it out when he has the chance. In Taylor’s lone start this season he had 36 pass attempts, and is over this mark in 4 of his last 5 starts dating back to 2023. I don’t think the Jets are changing QBs so they can run the ball 50 times. New York is likely to be playing in a negative game script, which should force Taylor to go pass-heavy.

There's just not enough playmakers offensively on the Jets side of things, which gives the Ravens the edge in this ball game. Defensively, Baltimore is starting to play like they did the latter part of the season, when they were arguably the best in the NFL. Expect some fight from Gang Green, but not enough to cover the spread.

Can Tyrod Taylor to provide a boost for the sluggish Jets offense? We saw it in the Bucs game back on Sept. 21 and suggest we might again today in Baltimore. Taylor at least gets the ball downfield, something Justin Fields wasn't doing before getting benched this week by Aaron Glenn. That's Taylor's mandate from Glenn, also to get the younger pass-catchers involved. Breece Hall has also been providing more pop at RB in recent weeks. For the Ravens, Lamar Jackson was supposedly dealing with an ankle in practice this week, but we don't think he's looked quite the same since returning from his earlier hamstring injury, not bolting out of the pocket as customary ...perhaps because the hamstring isn't yet 100%. Play Jets

The Jets were already allowing the 6th most RB rush attempts a game (24+) and now are without the best run defender in the NFL in Quinnen Williams. He had the best run grade at his position and was in the 99th percentile in run stop rate. Without him, the Jets will take on Derrick Henry who is averaging 20+ attempts over the last 5 weeks, cashing 18 or more attempts in each week. Plus, they're 13.5 point favorites ... so there should be plenty of volume game-script wise.

The Jets finally made the change at QB with Tyrod Taylor set to start, and while his overall numbers against the Bucs look solid, the Jets' offense struggled until racking up 153 yards in the fourth quarter. Overall, his numbers look similar to the QB he's replacing, aside from Taylor's higher interception rate. The Ravens defense has been excellent since getting healthy over the bye, including allowing just 41 points combined during three straight road games. This Baltimore team is a step above the Patriots, who were laying around the same number in this matchup. If you don't see Taylor as a massive upgrade at QB with his limited weapons, which I don't, this line should be a few points higher.

This game jumped out at me early in the week when I looked at the scheduling spot for the Ravens. Off of a division game in Cleveland with Cincinnati on deck, followed by the Steelers and Bengals again. Big division sandwich here with the lowly Jets sitting in between. Tyron Taylor gives NY a better chance to remain competitive in this game and the team will continue to play hard with jobs on the line. I made the number 10.5 and after crunching the stats, I get Ravens -8. I'll take +13.5 with a short week and a division-heavy schedule ahead for Baltimore.

FanDuel. Keaton Mitchell has cleared this line in three of his last four games. He’s proven to be an explosive complement to Derrick Henry in the Ravens rushing attack, and has carved out a 4-6 carry role for himself on a weekly basis. The matchup against the Jets not only pits him against a below average run defense (19th in EPA per rush attempt), but also serves as a possibility for gamescript to play in our favor, with the Ravens as almost two-touchdown favorites. I’d bet this up to over 21.5 yards.

This is a bet that I like more for the ladder potential as I think Adonai Mitchell has plenty of upside. I realize he plays on the Jets and tends to drop wide open balls, but what does Mike McClure always say about guys who drop wide open passes: they're good at getting wide open. We've got a negative game script, an upgrade at QB (Tyrod Taylor) and a Ravens defense that likes to play aggressive man-coverage, which provides all the ingredients to take a shot at 40+, 50+ (and beyond, depending on your appetite). The Jets OC has been gushing praise over Adonai. He'll get some opportunities. I like the regular line up to 33.5.

Henry is averaging north of 20 carries per game over the last four games. The Ravens need to win, badly. They're facing a Jets team that is more than willing to give up explosive run plays. This is an obvious "Feed the Big Dog" spot and I fully expect, especially with Lamar Jackson a little banged up, to get a massive Henry game against New York. We've seen some good games from the King so far this year but nothing outrageous. We might be staring down the barrel of a 200-yard outing.