33.5 is quite the number. The Lions may well get there against a banged-up New York defense -- but also keep in mind the Lions have the quickest turnaround game in the NFL this season with the early Thanksgiving kick. So you'd think if they get up, say, 27-3, that Dan Campbell might metaphorically call off the dogs/lions and ideally kick a couple of field goals (to land on 33) to save some energy for that big divisional matchup against Green Bay. I wouldn't go any lower than this and our model has the Motor City Kitties at 32 points. It's not easy scoring 34 points in the NFL and why only a handful of teams have averaged at least that many in a season.

I bet on Amon-Ra St. Brown to score, and feel obligated to play .5u on Williams at plus money as well. The Lions team total is up to 32.5! Williams thrives against man coverage, and the Giants secondary looks ripe for the picking. Williams should be more consistently involved in the offense with Dan Campbell now calling plays.

The Lions off a loss have been damn near unbeatable under Dan Campbell. Jameis Winston and the Giants are likely to get steamrolled today as +14 dogs. Several Lions should find pay dirt in this game, so I’ll ride with St. Brown at this fair price tag. He’s scored in 5/10 games this season, and faces a man coverage-heavy Giants secondary that is banged up. Jameson Williams Anytime TD is worth a sprinkle as well.

Just an absolutely monstrous spread for the Lions going against a team that has hung tough in recent weeks and actually beat the Eagles earlier this year. However, as we have maintained for two years, Detroit is usually a monster at home, particularly when up against teams with poor defenses. The best line on this game disappeared a while ago, but with Jameis Winston starting for New York, it’s possible the Lions get extra opportunities to score compounded throughout the game. Detroit should go up big and keep piling on the points. While I don’t normally touch totals, I’ll probably sprinkle the over here, too. The line has bounced from 13-14 Sunday morning, so get it as low as you can before kickoff.

in his 2025 debut last Sunday. His fiery attitude wlll help keep teammates engaged. The Lions remain an offensive force but have not rung up their usual big totals in some recent games. Coach Dan Campbell got off to a rocky start last Sunday as the play-caller. Detroit should not be alloting anyone a full two touchdowns these days.

We know Jahmyr Gibbs is an explosive running back, but we definitely want to pick our spots for when to target his longest rush over prop. Sunday against the Giants' defense is a great spot to target this prop. The Giants give up the most yards per carry to enemy running backs (5.7 YPC) and allow a whopping 55% success rate. I like Gibbs to fly past his longest rush prop on Sunday.

After a slow start to the season, Jameson Williams has scored a touchdown in four of the last five games. A few things are at play for why I like Williams to find the endzone again on Sunday. Sam LaPorta is out, so the targets are really condensed to Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Also, head coach Dan Campbell is now calling the plays and has been finding a way to get the ball in Williams' hands on more than just deep shots. The matchup is also great for Williams this week against the Giants' secondary. I think the Lions will score 35+, and I think Williams will be a part of that scoring.

This is a tasty matchup for Amon Ra Saint Brown who continues to be the focal point og a highly efficient passing offense that recently lost Sam LaPorta to IR (20% target share). Saint Brown is the clear focal point and in a matchup against a Giants defense that plays man coverage at the 3rd highest rate coupled with being very vulnerable to play action, this sets up as a smash spot for Saint Brown. This game has a 50 point total, with the Lions TT checking in over 30. Considering the Lions defense is banged up, this could turn into the type of environment that sees increased passing volume for Amon Ra. The Giants are down their top CB Paulsen Adebo as well.

[I'm ok playing this line at 33.5 as long as it's -110 or shorter and I lean to the Completions over at 19.5 at anything short of -130]. Last week Winston only threw the ball 29 times but that game was highly competitive and included 35 rush attempts between Tracy and Singletary. This game is likely to get out of hand quickly in a great bounce back spot for Detroit. Look for the Giants and Winston to lean on the passing game in catch up mode. I don't suspect we'll see a ton of efficiency which is why I lean to the attempts (however, I do think there will be enough short area throws for Jameis to hit both).

This is a great spot for Jamo because of the amount of single-high coverage the Giants play on defense. Even better: the Lions were suffered their greatest humiliation of the season on Sunday night against the Eagles. And when the Lions are embarrassed, they extract their revenge, going 13-0 SU and ATS in their last, uh, 13 games under Dan Campbell after a loss. That means Goff slinging it and with Sam LaPorta on IR, it should mean lots of looks for Williams, who is a threat to score every single time he touches the ball. Jamo's set up for an explosive close to the season and when he's indoors against a questionable back end of a defense I want to bet on him scoring.

Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties two games ago, and it's been a boon for Jameson Williams. He caught 10 of 14 targets for 207 yards against the Commanders and Eagles, and now he gets a plus-matchup with the Giants. New York plays man coverage at the highest rate and single-high safety at the sixth-highest. Those are coverages Williams has torched. With Sam LaPorta out and the Lions lacking a bigtime No. 3 receiver, Detroit's passing game should run through Amon-Ra St. Brown and Williams. Giants corner Paulson Adebo was expected to return from his knee injury last Sunday vs. Green Bay, but he experienced discomfort and was inactive. He did not practice Wednesday. Without Adebo, the Giants are giving up 7.7 yards per attempt.

Never get less than 12 hours of sleep, never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city, never date a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body and never blink when the Lions are double-digit favorites at home against a bad secondary off an embarrassing prime-time loss. This is an absolute smash spot for the Lions and this line will move up. The Giants could get Jaxson Dart back here, and if they do, the coaching staff will be under strict orders from ownership not to run him a ton. If they don't, it means a lot of Jameis Winston against a secondary that will flip aggressive throws into good field position and/or points.