This is a Denver-only game if you’re taking a side. The Raiders could cover, sure, and the Broncos are only 1-3 ATS as favorites of 7+ points this season. However, Las Vegas has lost five games by double digits, including its last four road games, and it just punted on the season at the trade deadline. The Raiders are travelling on short rest with a gassed defense that just played an OT game. The Broncos have played some surprisingly close games, but they consistently beat up bad defenses with margins of 25 and 20 over the Bengals and Cowboys. Denver brings in a great defense playing in altitude against a turnover-prone Las Vegas team.

The Raiders traded away one of their top passing-game weapons in Jakobi Meyers, and the question tonight is who is going to see an increased role in the offense as a result. Neither of the team's rookie receivers played an offensive snap last week as Tyler Lockett struggled with a featured role, but the team did use two tight-end sets extensively, keeping Mayer on the field 83% of the time in Brock Bowers' return and seeing seven targets. In a game where Vegas should be playing catch up, I like Mayer's chances to again see 5+ targets and catch at least three passes.

Last week, Ashton Jeanty caught five passes for 47 receiving yards. I'm not expecting that tonight in the receiving game for Jeanty, but I do like him to clear his receiving line of just 16.5. Since Week 5, Jeanty has 113 receiving yards and has run a route on 55% of passing plays for a 14.9% target share. Add in tonight that Jakobi Meyers has been traded, which took some short-area targets. Also, the Raiders will likely be playing in a negative game script. All of this adds up to like Jeanty's over receiving line.

I think we’re getting an incredible discount on Engram’s receptions line due to one quiet game. Engram was held without a catch against the vaunted Texans defense, but had 4+ receptions in 5 straight games prior to last week. Broncos HC Sean Payton addressed media questions about Engram’s goose-egg, and expressed confidence in his TE and vowed to continue getting him touches. The Raiders defense does a decent job of limiting explosive plays, so Nix should find Engram open underneath coverage. Engram has 4+ targets in 6/8 games this year, and I expect him to bounce back in this game.

DraftKings. Devin White is coming off back-to-back 16 tackle performances. Overall, he’s cleared this line in five of eight games, playing every snap for the Raiders defensively. While the Broncos aren’t a plus-matchup for linebacker tackles on paper (only 15.4 allowed per game, per PFF data), they’ve allowed five opposing off-ball linebackers to clear this line over the last six games. I do expect the Broncos to dominate time of possession, as the Raiders should struggle to move the ball against the pressure of the Broncos, who rank in the top 4 of length of drives against.

Broncos DE Zach Allen has 5 sacks on the season, but is 2nd in the NFL with 24 QB pressures. Last week against the Jaguars, Raiders QB Geno Smith saw a Week 9-high 28 QB pressures, and was under duress all game long. Smith did a nice job to evade the pass rush only taking 2 sacks, but I don't think he'll be able to escape a Denver defensive line that leads the NFL with 40 sacks. Allen can gang up with a teammate to record half a sack and cash this.

Broncos corner Riley Moss is nursing an ankle injury, but he doesn't have a game designation. Moss will spend a lot of time covering the Raiders' top receiving option, Brock Bowers. Since Week 4, opposing cornerbacks have averaged over 15 combined tackles against the Raiders. Look for Moss, a very willing tackler, to go Over this prop total for the eighth time in 10 games.

It feels counterintuitive to play a completions prop as opposed to an attempts prop with an extremely inefficient quarterback against a stellar defense, but I think this number is a touch too low. If the Raiders have any sense whatsoever (admittedly an open question) then they'll ensure that Geno Smith gets the ball out fast and peppers his reliable targets (Bowers, Mayer, Tucker). I don't think the rush game will have any legs for the Raiders so it'll be on Geno, and in my opinion, the short area passing game. This prop survives both types of game scripts.

Betting on long shots down the field with this Broncos pass rush is a concern for sure. But Tre Tucker is now going to see a full workload in with Meyers dealt and he profiles as a big play threat with Brock Bowers working underneath. This number is a full two yards lower than the rest of the market and Tucker has cleared it in all but three games this year. He'll get several deep-field looks in Chip Kelly's offense and there's a good chance Geno Smith is forced to drop back 35+ times this week unless we get a total slog of a game. Even then, Tucker can take a short pass for a big gain and get us a 20-yard reception.

This number for Courtland Sutton is simply too low. Sutton has gone over this number in all but three games this year. One of those was a surprising matchup against the Colts in Week 2 and the other two were against Sauce Gardner and the Texans stingy pass defense. The Raiders don't have anyone to throw at Sutton like that, and the Broncos top passing weapon should eat in this spot. I'd expect a few shot plays to Troy Franklin, but there's no Marvin Mims for this game, so Sutton should see plenty of work as the Broncos look to move the chains. He could take care of this in the first half.

RJ Harvey is quietly coming on strong for the Broncos over the last few weeks and could profile as "this year's Alvin Kamara" for Sean Payton's offense. He's scored five touchdowns in the last three weeks and although a lot of them have come late in games or as a result of the Broncos having a big lead, that's pretty good news for us this week on Thursday night. Harvey's getting plenty of work in the passing game and scored the go-ahead touchdown against the Texans on a brilliantly-designed playcall that featured him running a wheel route late against Houston. He'll have plenty of designed looks on Thursday and could get all the garbage-time carries, setting him up nicely for a score at this price.

Somewhat game-script dependent prop here, because if this turns into the Raiders getting a lead or a shootout somehow, Bo Nix could see his passing attempts spike pretty quickly. I'm fine leaning into a similar game script to what we saw from the Broncos and Cowboys, in which the Broncos scored a ton of points and their opponent didn't score many. Nix was incredibly efficient with his attempts in that game, going 19-for-29 for 247 yards and the old Abe Lincoln (a.k.a. four score). Something similar to that is absolutely in play here, with the Broncos taking the air out of the ball in the second half and shortening the game, with due consideration to their schedule the next three weeks (Raiders, Chiefs, bye).

This was a Raiders series for several years, winning eight straight vs. Denver between 2020-23, until the Broncos forged a turnaround last year by sweeping the pair of games. It has gone a bit pear-shaped for new Raiders HC Pete Carroll, as Las Vegas is only 2-6 SU, with a dysfunctional offense and error-prone QB in Geno Smith. Meanwhile, Denver is steaming at 7-2, with six wins on the spin, and the league's best pass rush looks a terrible matchup vs. the erratic Smith, who will likely be forced to make plays on the move if he doesn't want to take a sack. Play Broncos

The Broncos have made their bones this year preying on bad defenses at home (28 vs. the Bengals, 33 vs. the Giants, 44 vs. the Cowboys) and they get another bad defense in the Raiders visiting on a short week with Vegas having just traded its No. 1 wideout. Plus, there's this from ClevTA on X: TNF teams off an overtime loss are 6-25 ATS since 2000 and 3-19 ATS on the road in the same stretch. The Raiders defense just played 77 snaps and has to get back on the field four days later. It's an impossible spot against a legit playoff team. I wouldn't be shocked if this closes DEN -10.

The Raiders are coming back on short rest after playing an overtime game against Jacksonville, and their defense has to be gassed after spending nearly 43 minutes of possession on the field. They would've given up 40+ points in each of their last three road games had the Chiefs not sat on the ball in the 31-0 shellacking, and they've allowed 25+ points in five of their last six overall, only slowing down a Titans offense that slows itself down. The Denver offense isn't my favorite to back as it can slow itself down at times as well, but this is a great matchup against a gassed defense that should lead to a 30-point effort here.

The Broncos won both games last year after a long succession of Raider wins, and the last three have gone over the total. The Raiders have lost six of their last seven games, losing two of them by one point, but they still didn't cover. I love tight end Brock Bowers, but Geno Smith is hard to watch. The Raiders have the 30th-ranked offense, averaging 283 yards per game, while Denver has the No. 3 defense, allowing 279 yards per game. Denver also leads the NFL with the least amount of yards per play allowed at 4.8. Where I think the Raiders are in trouble is that Geno Smith is going to get punished by the No. 1 sack team in the NFL. Broncos.

The Raiders are relatively stingy against slot receivers (Troy Franklin), but they've been burned repeatedly by outside wideouts, giving up the third-most receiving yards. Courtland Sutton has cleared this prop total in all four of his home games (61, 81, 87 and 67 yards). Marvin Mims has a chance to return from his concussion, but either way I like Sutton to be the focal point of a revived passing game. Facing the Raiders' tired defense, look for Sutton to dominate.

The Raiders allowed the Jaguars to score on six consecutive drives to end Sunday's 30-29 home loss in overtime. Las Vegas' defense was on the field for a whopping 77 plays. Bo Nix has played well against the NFL's softer defenses, and this matchup qualifies. Especially with the Raiders, on a short week, traveling to altitude. Geno Smith has Brock Bowers back, but he struggles when pressured. Now he has to deal with the league's top pass rush. I would lay anything less than 10.