Choosing to back the Texans here requires a lot of faith in a two-week breakout against the listless Titans and downtrodden Ravens. While the Seahawks have been in nailbiters week to week – actually performing better on the road than at home -- their defense and pass rush is consistent. Seattle makes its offensive bones on the ground – a larger load is expected for Kenneth Walker III -- so Houston's strong secondary won't be as much of an issue in this game. Plus, while there are some teams that are tremendous off the bye (Chiefs), for most teams it does not provide a serious bump. The Seahawks secondary has gotten healthier, too. Lay the field goal.

Houston’s offense finally woke up in their last game, but their 44 point outing came against a Ravens defense in despair. I expect them to struggle early on the road against this top-ranked Seattle defense, that is very well-schemed under Mike Macdonald. It looks as if both CB Devon Witherspoon and FS Julian Love both may play tonight. If Seattle has their full complement of DB’s locking down in coverage, C.J Stroud will be under duress against this defensive live (as per usual). This game may come down to which QB makes the fewest “big” mistakes, so we could see some conservative game planning early on. Give me the 1H Under.

Any points, plus this extra hook, could prove valuable for Houston in what figures a tightly-contested and perhaps slower-paced game tonight in Seattle. The Texans are well-rested into tonight off of their bye, on the heels of back-to-back wins in which the defense allowed only 10 points total. Granted, just Tennessee and Lamar-less Baltimore, but CJ Stroud has found his rhythm, with 6 TD passes and 0 picks the past two games. Houston added in 167 rush yards vs. the Ravens in the best performance from the offense in the past two years. Strangely, Seattle seems to have more issues playing at home, where it has lost 8 of its last 10 games. Play Texans

DraftKings (-120). Zach Charbonnet has remained under this line in four of five games, with only one run longer than eight-yards this season (15 yards against the Cardinals). Running a zone concept 71% of the time, Charbonnet has struggled in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system. Splitting carries with Kenneth Walker, Charbonnet is no sure thing to see substantial volume either. And this is a brutal spot against a Texans run defense that ranks seventh in yards per carry allowed to running backs, and only 7 of 102 total carries have cleared even 10 yards. Houston also ranks eighth in YPC against zone concept runs.

Although Seattle has had much more success on the road than at home as of late, they are 3-1 SU & ATS when playing as the favorite this year. The Texans may draw some bets as dogs here, coming off back-to-back routings of the Titans & Ravens. However, those are two of the most broken teams in the league, and I’m not sure the Texans will have fixed their glaring offensive line issues coming out of the bye. Houston’s offense put up just 9 points against the Rams, 19 against the Bucs, and 10 against the Jags. I’ll back Seattle’s defense at home to give C.J Stroud and the Texans problems. This line is headed to -3.5 on some books, so get this in now.

Nick Chubb averaged 5.5 yards per carry against the depleted Ravens, but this is a much tougher test. Seattle gives up 3.3 yards per carry overall, 2.9 yards per carry at home. There are indications the Texans want to get rookie Woody Marks more touches. That could eat into Chubb's workload.

Nico Collins had a bye in Week 6. Before the bye week, he had a touchdown catch in three of the last four games. The Seahawks' secondary is still banged up, and they have given up big games and touchdowns to WR1s in recent weeks. Look for Collins to find the endzone off the bye week against this depleted secondary. I love the price we are getting for him to score.

Heading into the bye the Texans offense exploded against the Titans and Ravens' defenses. Last we checked those are some of the worst units in the league so I'm not going to pretend the Texans OL is even close to fixed. Meanwhile on the other side this is a Seahawks offense that's over achieved thus far but steps up in class at home against a rested Texans stop unit. I expect both of these offenses to struggle early when it comes to finding their footing against stout defensive fronts so 1H under is the order of the night.

I doubt that the Texans will be able to run the ball much here -- Seattle's letting up just 3.1 yards per rush to RBs. That should mean Houston will have to throw more often, something they haven't had to do much of in favorable game scripts in Weeks 4 and 5. And this number is curiously high -- Stroud's been over it ONCE all year, but EVERY QB against the Hawks has thrown at least 33 passes against them. I know Seattle's secondary is getting healthy, but that will impact the effectiveness of Stroud's throws, not his volume.

On the year Seattle has allowed 3.1 yards per carry to running backs, a shade lower if you don't include garbage time. Chubb doesn't play in garbage time -- he's hardly playing a lot at all. We've seen Chubb's snap rate drop over the past two games whilst Woody Marks has stepped up, down to a meek 41.1% in their last game against the Ravens excluding garbage time. It's entirely possible that the Texans move even further away from Chubb in their first game after their bye week, especially in an unfavorable road matchup.

Given the trajectory of these teams, taking the points is the only way to go. The Seahawks, who once had one of the most significant home-field advantages in the NFL, have seen their performance arc do an about-face. They are 1-2 at home, with the only win against the lowly Saints. The Texans are on the rebound from a disastrous 0-3 start, all by one score, and their top-ranked scoring defense lends even more value to this key number with the hook.

The Texans had two blowout wins prior to their bye, but both were against awful teams, and one defense was brutalized by injury. The Seahawks have been an excellent defense this season and their talented front matches up well against Houston's poor offensive line. The Texans defense is the best Seattle has faced since a rough Week 1 outing against the 49ers, and while the Seahawks look stronger now, I don't see them running up the score against a Texans defense that ranks third in EPA per play. This should be similar to Seattle's 20-12 win last week.

The Texans looked fantastic in their two games before the bye, but both came against broken offenses that couldn't move the ball. The Seahawks have been anything but, ranking first in yards per play with an elite passing attack that has a chance to beat Houston's pass defense in a strength vs. strength matchup. The major edge is on the other side of the ball, as the Seahawks also have an elite defense while the Texans offense looked awful prior to its uncompetitive matchups. I want to jump on this while it's still -3 at DraftKings, but I will also be likely to play the Texans team total Under.