Consider me a Dak Prescott defender. For all the Cowboys’ myriad issues, Prescott is not one of them. However, entering this game down CeeDee Lamb and Tyler Booker, it is going to be quite a tall task expecting him to keep up with Jordan Love. While Javonte Williams should get his against the Packers’ lacking run defense, Green Bay has done a great job keeping teams out of the end zone. The Cowboys do not have the horses to replicate the pressure the Browns put on Love, and as an overall defense, they cannot match up with the Packers. While a backdoor cover is always possible, Green Bay should win this by double digits. It is a worthy teaser play with Denver on Monday night.

The loss of Ceedee Lamb is going to be a big adjustment for Dallas to handle offensively. Tonight against the Packers look for Jake Ferguson to step up with opportunities. The Packers defense is already on edge after losing in heartbreak fashion last week to Cleveland, and also the return of their teammate Micah Parsons to Dallas. They’ve struggled in tight end catches as well as Sam Laporta, Zach Ertz, and David Njoku all had five catches or more in the first three games. Take Ferguson’s over.

The Cowboys will have Daron Bland and Trevon Diggs available, but this is still a great matchup for the Packers' passing game. Romeo Doubs will see a lot of Diggs and Kair Elam, and both have been burned repeatedly. Doubs leads Green Bay in routes run; Jordan Love usually targets him deep. I also like Matthew Golden on Sunday Night Football but Doubs has the better matchup.

Kraft currently leads the Packers in targets in the end zone. He has scored in 2/3 games thus far, and faces a Cowboys defense that ranks dead last against the pass.

Packers TE Tucker Kraft was fortunate to avoid a serious knee injury, and proved his health last week playing 88% of the offensive snaps. Green Bay was bottled up against an excellent Browns defense, and I expect them to explode against the Cowboys in this “Micah Parsons revenge game.” Dallas DC Matt Eberflus runs one of the highest clips of zone coverage in the league, and Kraft has thrived against Cover 3 looks. With Packers WR1 Jayden Reed sidelined, Kraft will continue to be a key piece of this offense.

The Cowboys secondary has been straight up atrocious. Through just 3 games, they have already given up 6 plays for 40+ yards. Their best DB Daron Bland will return which should give them a slight boost, but this unit looks beyond saving. Jordan Love is over this longest completion mark in 2/3 games on the season thus far. The Packers are coming off a heartbreaking 13-10 loss to the Browns, so I expect their offense to come out firing as they look to get their groove back. Look for Love to expose this secondary early on.

This Cowboys offense is going to have their hands full on Sunday night. Not only do they have to deal with a Micah Parsons homecoming but a GB defense fresh off a loss where they played their hearts out vs Cleveland. The Pack have now held 3 straight opponents to a sub 4 yards per play figure and kept all of them to 14 points or less. Dallas is down Ceedee Lamb, banged up on the OL, and without a reliable ground game. We'll take our chances here rooting against offensive achievement.

Think this one is fairly self-explanatory. Definitely want to see the NBC cameras pan to Jerry Jones on Sunday night after Micah Parsons has a game-changing strip-sack or the like of Dak Prescott. Jones still seems to be trying to justify the trade and will never admit he got fleeced.

Even without CeeDee Lamb, I think the Cowboys can get to 20 at home vs. Green Bay if they don't miss a kick (Brandon Aubrey rarely does even from 60 yards out; that dude is phenomenal) and even if it's a backdoor late score -- all of our other books currently have 20.5, and I don't know that I'd play Over that. Our model has Dallas with 21 points. Green Bay has the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense but has caught some scheduling breaks thus far. That said, I will have to play Micah Parsons for Over 0.5 sacks if that gets posted in his return to Big D.

We are going right back to Matthew Golden in a pristine matchup on Sunday Night Football. At this point, it's pretty clear that the Cowboys pass defense is horrific, but what wasn't as clear last week was the role that Golden was going to have with Jayden Reed out. We got our answer with Golden running a route on over 80% of dropbacks. The Browns exposed some of the Packers offensive line injury issues last week, but the Cowboys won't be able to do that. I'm expecting Love to have plenty of time and to be operating from a relatively clean pocket which means we can potentially cash this prop on one deep shot. Happy to play this up to 39.5.

Queue up the Micah Parsons revenge angle as the Packers come to town. The Cowboys offense is down multiple key players including star receiver CeeDee Lamb, and the Packers defense might be the best in football with just 3.7 yards per play allowed. Since 2017, the Under is 35-17 during the first four weeks when the road team is favored by at least six, but this allows us to not sweat a ceiling performance by the Packers offense against a terrible Cowboys defense.

George Pickens may be in for CeeDee Lamb type targets (15+) especially if Green Bay is out in front by a wide margin. Jake Ferguson is getting a ton of usage in the middle of the field but is not a TD threat. Obviously most of his stats were accumulated in Pittsburgh but Pickens' % of team receiving TDs is nearly 2x (36%) of what his % of team receptions are (18.5%). When you adjust for CeeDee's absence you can find that Pickens' 36% is closer to 50% for this game and his model based line would be right around +100 (50%).

Our model would set this line at -120 so to get this much plus money is something we love. Williams scored twice in Week 1 and once in Week 2. He was terrible for a couple seasons in Denver after his serious injuries but is currently averaging a career high 5.3 ypc (3.6 and 3.7 in '23 and '24) and it's not like he's doing it with a dominant offensive line either. Rookie Jaydon Blue has yet to be activated. Miles Sanders has done well enough to hold off Blue as the backup RB but with his costly Week 1 fumble has done enough (bad) to not threaten Javonte for RB1 duties, especially on the goal line where Sanders has always seemingly struggled.

The -118 implies a 54% chance but with a 2.1 pass TD per sim projection we'd put those chances at nearly 70%. The last time Love was in Dallas he had 3 passing TDs against a very good Cowboys defense in the playoffs. This line is set based on his production since '24 where he is 10-9 over 1.5 but, the Week 3 vs Cleveland aside, I see him playing much more like the QB he was in 2023, especially vs this Cowboys defense. In 2023 he ended the season 10-1 over 1.5 passing TDs and started 5-0 in 2024 for a 15-1 stretch spanning parts of two seasons.

The bulk of the value driving this 60% over play is from Green Bay going over the 27.3 odds implied total. Opposing QBs are throwing the ball vs Dallas as comfortably as they would at their Pro Day. Green Bay scored 27 in Week 1 and 2 and to think they won't significantly exceed 27 vs Dallas is unlikely. The Cowboys won't have CeeDee Lamb but they still have George Pickens who has back to back 9 target, 5 rec, 68 yard, 1 TD stat lines. Jake Ferguson has a massive 26 targets, 22 rec, and 160 yards the last 2 weeks alone. Javonte Williams looks like he did as a rookie in Denver. The Cowboys can score 21 and get this over the total.

The Packers had a wakeup call against a very good Browns defense that was able to consistently generate pressure on Jordan Love. This Dallas defense is the diametric opposite, getting lit up by Russell Wilson and Caleb Williams in consecutive weeks. The Packers defense has allowed just 3.7 yards per play and held three straight opponents under 250 yards despite playing two great offenses from last year. I worry that the Cowboys could backdoor cover, but Dak Prescott did not look great against a questionable Chicago defense, throwing multiple picks. What will he do against the best defense in football in a Micah Parsons revenge game? Take Packers to cover up to -6.