As stuck-in-the-mud as Cleveland’s offense has been, getting such a sizable spot with the league’s premier defense is irresistible. The Browns’ D surely will be tested, with Detroit having piled up the second most points in the NFL, but the Browns’ O did show a pulse in their late takedown of Green Bay with three scores in the final four minutes — after being zeroed in the opening 56. The thinking here is basic: Go with the nasty defense with double-digit points in your pocket.

All things being equal, this game will come down to which offense can you trust to get the job done vs a tough defensive unit. There isn't enough trust from me in Joe Flacco on the road for me to believe he'll be able to go toe-to-toe with the Lions in this game.

Sam LaPorta has been held to 26 and 33 yards the past two games. But this is a great matchup for him based on the coverages the Browns play. If you go back to the end of last season, LaPorta has cleared this prop total in six of eight games. Look for the third-year Iowa product to record at least 40 receiving yards Sunday.

The Lions have been on fire the last two weeks and I don't see that stopping here. Yes, it's a huge number to cover, but the Browns don't profile as a "storm through the backdoor" team with Joe Flacco or Dillon Gabriel under center. Detroit saw what Cleveland did to Green Bay last week and while they appreciate the Browns opening up the division again, they won't return the favor and take their foot off the gas in this spot.

Quinshon Judkins looks like the best rookie running back in the league. He's taken over the Browns' backfield, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 4.3 yards after contact per tote. He drew all but one of Cleveland's carries last week vs. Green Bay. The Browns don't want to expose Joe Flacco to Detroit's fierce pass rush so I'm expecting a balanced offensive approach, at least until the game gets out of hand. Look for Cleveland's elite defense to keep this respectable enough for Judkins to clear this prop total.

The Browns are coming off a surprising win over a Packers team that handled the Lions in Week 1, but the Detroit offense of old has been on full display the last two weeks. While a great Browns defense could have success early in this matchup, I was impressed by the Lions offensive line in Baltimore and think Detroit will be able to score points. It's hard to see that happening for a Cleveland offense that has been brutal every week, even against a bad Bengals defense. The Ravens were favored by 11.5 at home against the Browns, and two weeks later a revitalized Lions team should be double digits at home against the same opponent.