The Chargers easily swept the Broncos in 2024 and have won four of the past five in the series at home. The only loss was in 2023 when Justin Herbert exited the game with a broken finger. Jim Harbaugh is 4-1 vs Sean Payton as NFL head coaches (including playoffs). The Bolts have covered five straight game overall, longest streak in the league. Bo Nix might be in the midst of a sophomore slump for Denver. This is a reasonable moneyline so why bother with -2.5. Most of the Broncos beat writers have L.A. winning close.

Offseason expectations vs. in-season play. What’s been most impressive about the Chargers is the way the offense has opened up with Justin Herbert averaging 9.2 yards per attempt with five touchdowns, no turnovers and 63 yards rushing. The Broncos follow up a barn-burner last week with the Colts by having to travel for a second straight week. Denver’s strength in 2024, its defense, gave up nearly 500 yards to Indianapolis. The Broncos have largely dominated this series, but the Chargers swept them in 2024. Let’s lock this in before it hits the key number.

Bo Nix might have a tough time against this Chargers pass defense allowing less than 200 yards in the air. Denver’s game have seen their games go under the total in three of their last four as well. The Chargers defense is also holding their opponents to 15 points per game.

The Denver Broncos were a non penalty away from securing a tough win at Indianapolis. Instead they went to 1-1, but expect that loss to drive the team to prove themselves early against the LA Chargers. Bo Nix and Sean Payton found their offensive rhythm, and you also have the ex-factor of JK Dobbins facing his old team. Take the Broncos plus the points.

DraftKings. After dealing with a sprained ankle during parts of last season, Justin Herbert looks spry in 2025. The Chargers’ quarterback has 9 and 7 rush attempts through his first two games - 10 total attempts if you exclude kneel-downs and a fumble. The Broncos are an ideal opponent for scramble opportunities. Their 36% pressure rate is second highest in 2025, after also finishing second last season (per NFL Reference). Herbert’s scramble rate doubled when under pressure last season, and has scrambled on 5 of 23 dropbacks so far this season (per PFF). And the Broncos play man at the second highest rate, typically lending to more scrambles. Throw in the possibility for sneaks/kneels, and I have Herbert closer to six rush attempts on Sunday.

Dobbins has 14-plus rush attempts in each game this year including 12 of a possible 15 fourth-quarter runs for the Broncos. That's key since he'll be the one getting the ball late in a close game. He's looked like their best RB and I figure it'll stay that way for a while. Moreover, the Chargers play heavy zone coverage which is conducive to making offenses run the ball. I expect a competitive game. Also, the Chargers have seen the fewest amount of RB runs this year, but they've also played in two games against offenses with inferior run games. I don't think Denver's runners nor O-line could be termed inferior.

We like the Harbaughs, especially at under three points — a number that other sportsbooks are posting. QB Justin Herbert once was susceptible againat blitzing but has been lights-out against heavy pressure through two games. Whereas the Chargers are permitting 15 ppg, the Broncos’ D is reeling from granting Indy 473 yards and scoring plays on six series. L.A., which will sorely miss hurt LB Khalil Mack, is bent not only on advancing to 3-0 SU but would own wins against all AFC West brethren. That is some serious incentive on the heels of two eye-catching wins.

This is a low line for J.K. Dobbins who has eclipsed this attempts prop in both starts this season. Dobbins will face his former team in the Chargers who opponents are opting to go run heavy against considering their pass defense has been excellent. Dobbins has gotten the majority of the early down work in Denver's offense and while R.J. Harvey has flashed some upside, he is just being used situationally and if he does play more I expect it to come on third downs and obvious passing situations. While his role is likely to grow as the season progresses, I believe this is Dobbins job to lose for now.

Following Courtland Sutton's goose egg against the Saints last season, QB Bo Nix publicly vowed to never let such a performance happen again to his #1 receiver. The following week, Sutton went for 8 catches and 100 yards on 11 targets. Following his 1 catch/6 yards stat line against the Colts, we expect the Broncos to again affirm their commitment to the sure-handed veteran as a primary weapon.

I thought the Broncos were the better team heading into the season, but the Chargers have looked like one of the league's best teams through two weeks. Their passing attack has been excellent, while a supposedly elite Broncos defense just got carved up by Daniel Jones. This should close on the key number of 3, but I've adjusted the Chargers up in my ratings enough that I'd make them four-point favorites so I'm jumping on it now even with Khalil Mack's status in question.