I expect Miami to be overly aggressive with blitzes and pass rush schemes on Thursday night. With Allen's running ability I could see him going over this number multiple times on TNF.

Miami has been the worst defensive team in the league thus far and Buffalo will be without Matt Milano and Ed Oliver. I like Buffalo to win big here, with a final score in the 38-24 range.

I thought about playing this at 30.5, but getting 31.5 at +100 is worth it to me. Miami allowed 33 points in each of its first two games of the season against the Colts and Patriots -- neither are on Buffalo's level offensively. Look for another massively productive game from the Bills' offense.

Joey Bosa didn't make a big impact in his Bills' debut versus Baltimore. But the 30-year-old was a force last week at the Jets, getting seven pressures, a sack and two forced fumbles. I bet him to record at least a half-sack Thursday. Bosa is facing a Miami team that's given up eight sacks in two games. Tua Tagovailoa will be dropping back often with the Dolphins expected to be trailing. Bosa usually lines up on the left side, meaning he'll have to get by right tackle Larry Borom. That's a plus as Borom (58.9 pass-block grade per PFF) is much worse than left tackle Patrick Paul.

This is a big number to lay, but I expect a blowout win for the Bills on Thursday night. The Dolphins are a complete mess right now, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a coaching change in Miami if this game goes as I expect it to. The Dolphins have been bad on the defensive side of the ball, while the Bills have looked like a well-oiled machine. I am backing Buffalo to get a big win on TNF.

Available at +400 on Fanduel. I used the “TD Jackpot Token” on this bet. Fun promo- If Davis scores the first or last TD of the game, you are entered in a prize pool to win a share of bonus bets. I took Davis to go over his rushing yards total, and I also like him to score a TD if this game gets ugly. If the Bills are scoring at will on this porous Miami defense, look for them to spread the love.

This line is available at 23.5 on Fanduel. Kicking myself because I mentioned it at 21.5 on Monday’s Early Edge show. I’ll still bite. Bills RB2 Ray Davis had 9 carries for 24 rushing yards in a blowout win last week against the Jets. Buffalo are -12.5 favorites in this matchup, and if they are playing up multiple scores they should utilize their backup running back on a short week. Last season, the Dolphins & Bills met in Week 2 for a Thursday night game, and in a 31-10 Buffalo win Davis had 9 carries for 29 yards. I like him to get 7-10 touches tonight and go over this total.

The Dolphins haven't been able to stop much of anything on defense so far and the Bills haven't been a whole lot better, giving up six yards per play on average this season. Add that Matt Milano and Ed Oliver are out for Buffalo. Miami has a decent pass rush but it is yet to be very effective and now you are facing one of the most difficult QB's to sack in the NFL. The point is that the points are - coming in bunches tonight. This ought to be back and forth for quite a while before the Bills find a way to win by 6-8 points.

With the Bills being massive favorites, there's every expectation the Dolphins will be playing catch-up in this game. But that still means Achane will get plenty of work as one of the team's best pass-catchers, especially if Jaylen Waddle is out or limited. Achane had 10 targets left week and caught all 15 of his targets in two games against the Bills last year. Moreover, he's scored a touchdown in 10 of his last 13 games, meaning he should be favored to get into the end zone against basically anyone at this point. Take the plus odds on this prop where you can.

Keon Coleman got lost in the Sauce last week and that is creating value on his yardage prop for Thursday. I bet Coleman over 750.5 receiving yards this season and I'm not expecting his yardage props to be in the 40s much longer. Look for Coleman to bounce back against a suspect Dolphins' secondary.

The Dolphins are already clearly the worst defense in the league. Through the first two weeks, Miami has given up the most yards & points per drive in the NFL. On a short week without two starting DBs, I have trouble seeing how the Dolphins defense stops a nosebleed, much less Josh Allen. Miami allowed the Colts to score on every offensive possession, and then the Patriots nearly replicated that the following week. Buffalo’s defense will be without LB Matt Milano & DT Ed Oliver, and CB Taron Johnson is currently ‘questionable’ to play. Miami’s offense will likely be in a trailing game script, and should have their chances to answer back. I’m seeing plenty of points in this matchup.

The Bills are at home, facing a squad in Miami that has allowed opponents (Patriots/Colts) to score 33 points in back to back weeks. Not only do the Bills have trends on their side: cashing their team total in 10 of the last 11 games ... but they are facing a banged up defensive front and secondary with four Miami starters listed out or questionable. Bills should continue to play clean ball -- they've gone 7 straight games without a turnover and Miami has 0 takeaways this season. We saw BUF put up 20 PTS in the 1H against a tough Jets D on the road ... they should get to a quick start and cash their home team total here once again.

This Dolphins defense may end up being historically bad. In Week 1, Miami gave up four 20+ yard passing plays to Daniel Jones and the Colts, including a 36-yarder. In Week 2, Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson broke off a 55-yard catch on them. I have a hard time seeing how Miami will stop this explosive Bills offense, especially without starting DBs Storm Duck & Ifeatu Melifonwu. Allen went over this longest completion mark in 10/19 games last season, and hit backup RB Ray Davis for a 60-yard grab when these teams last met. This game could turn into a blowout and put certain player props in jeopardy, so I like a bet on one big explosive play.

The Dolphins allowed the Colts to score on all seven possessions, then allowed the Patriots to score on five of seven possessions (not including kneeldowns). Now Miami, which is without cornerback Storm Duck and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu, must deal with a Bills' offense that routinely explodes at home. Buffalo has gone Over its team total in 10 of its last 11 home games. The Dolphins own the NFL's worst pass defense by several metrics, allowing a passer rating of 126.1. The pass rush is their supposed strength but they rank 24th in pressure rate. In Miami's last eight visits to Buffalo, the Dolphins have given up an average of 37.3 points.

Tyreek Hill might be plenty rich so don't worry about getting him paid -- it was mostly a PCU joke, iykyk -- but the Dolphins better be peppering Hill with targets if they want any chance in this game. Hill showed up last week against the Patriots and kept Miami in the game, with the offense looking slightly competent! He should clear this number on screens alone.

De'Von Achane's quietly been really, really productive overall this season, but particularly in the passing game and Miami's offense got going last week when they involved him to the tune of 10+ targets. Chasing a Buffalo team in an almost-assured negative gamescript, I'd expect Achane to get peppered with dumpoffs and screens and this number is much lower than the rest of the market. Feel free to ladder to 60.

Miami held Josh Allen completely in check last year from a rushing perspective, but 26.5 yards seems awfully low. Our model has him with 34 yards on Thursday and our AI has him at 41.5, saying "With an average of 46.8, Allen has gone over his rushing yards line in 3 of his last 5 games when favored." All of our other books have at least 29.5.

The Dolphins have started this season with no urgency. They're 0-2 and 0-2 against the spread, losing 33-8 at Indianapolis in Week 1 and losing 33-27 at home against the Patriots. Now they play the Bills. Do the Dolphins all of a sudden flip the script and show some cohesion? The Bills have won the last six meetings with the Dolphins, and of course, this is the highest spread in any of those games, which tells you something about each team. Bills first half.

Ed Oliver and Matt Milano have already been ruled out for Buffalo. De'Von Achane is one of the most explosive backs in the NFL today, and I expect the Dolphins to look to get the ball in his hands early and often. This is a number I expect Achane to hit if he receives 10 carries on Thursday.