FanDuel. Ray-Ray McCloud cleared this line in ten of 16 games last season that he played with both Drake London and Darnell Mooney, and is coming off a 51-yard effort (albeit without Mooney). Even with Mooney back, I like McCloud in this matchup. The Vikings are a receiver funnel - they allowed the second most yards per game to opposing receivers last season, and seemed poised to do the same this season. McCloud, who functions mostly out of the slot, has a low average depth of target compared to his counterparts, which should help him see more looks tonight. The Vikings bring the pressure, forcing quarterbacks into shorter throws.

It’s rare you can see football “click” for a player in the middle of a game, but that’s what happened last week with JJ McCarthy – even if it was against the lowly Bears. The Vikings have a top-tier defense, which the Falcons have regularly struggled against despite their loaded weaponry. Atlanta is largely inefficient, and it rarely wins as underdogs (1-5 under Raheem Morris). Speaking of Morris, there is a serious coaching mismatch with Kevin O’Connell. There is concern given how well Michael Penix Jr. plays against the blitz, which will be called often Sunday night, but remember that he was a mixed bag after that opening TD drive. Despite its defensive injuries, Minnesota still has a better roster at home. Value line.

The Falcons outplayed the Bucs in Week 1 and held Tampa Bay to a 39 percent success rate. Atlanta’s injury report is much less concerning than Minnesota’s. Look for a tight game and grab the points.

McCarthy struggled mightily for three quarters in his NFL debut, and finished 13/20 for 143 yards. This Falcons defense comes into this season underrated. Atlanta held a shorthanded Buccaneers team to just 159 total passing yards, and now face a Vikings offense that remains without WR2 Jordan Addison and LT Christian Darrisaw. I expect Minnesota HC Kevin O’Connell to lean on the run at home, and look to control possession to help relieve the duties of his injured defense. The Falcons have talented DBs A.J Terrell & Jessie Bates, who can help limit big plays and keep McCarthy under this passing yards total.

Points could very much come in handy for a capable Atlanta tonight in Minneapolis. Remember, this is still just the second NFL start for Minnesota's JJ McCarthy, who looked great in the 4th Q on Monday in Chicago, but had struggled beforehand, including a pick-six. While Kevin O'Connell continues to burnish his credentials as a QB whisperer, we suspect lots of close games for the Vikings. Meanwhile, Atlanta is kicking itself for at least not forcing OT last week vs. the Bucs, as faulty PK by Younghoe Koo proved costly (Koo has been replaced by Parker Romo from the practice squad for tonight). Note that in the four games started by QB Michael Penix, Atlanta is scoring at a healthy 29 ppg clip. Play Falcons

JJ McCarthy and the Vikings are coming off an impressive comeback win on SNF. Now the first-year QB will play in his 2nd straight Primetime game. Minnesota will still be without key offensive linemen LT Christian Darrisaw. On defense, they won’t have pass-rusher Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Blake Cashman, CB Jeff Okudah, and have FS Harrison Smith currently listed as ‘Questionable’ to play. Atlanta’s explosive WR duo of Drake London & Darnell Mooney both seem to be healthy. If Smith isn’t able to play again this week, London & Mooney could cause Minnesota’s secondary serious problems if the pass rush isn’t getting home. I also like the revenge angle for Falcons QB Michael Penix, who lost to McCarthy in the 2024 college national championship game.

Linebacker Divine Deablo made a strong impression in his debut for Atlanta, finishing with six combined tackles and a half-sack. Deablo earned praise from Raheem Morris and played 57 of 58 snaps alongside Kaden Elliss. This is a strong matchup for linebackers, so I bet Deablo to register at least six combined stops.

J.J. McCarthy attempted 20 passes in his debut, despite the fact Minnesota trailed most of the way. The Vikings are still without wideout Jordan Addison and left tackle Christian Darrisaw. They will continue to lean on their stout defense and their RB duo of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. Look for McCarthy to finish in the mid- to high-20s on pass attempts.

With Mooney expected to play, this pick really sounds good to me. He's a downfield threat Penix can lean on anytime the Vikings blitz and play man-to-man coverage behind. We already know Penix can sling it based on last week (298 yards on 42 pass attempts without Mooney). Minnesota's got some injuries (pass rusher Andrew Van Ginkel, cornerbacks Jeff Okudah and Isaiah Rodgers) that could limit their effectiveness against the pass. It sets up Penix to have a solid game and at least 230 yards through the air.

The lookahead line favored Minnesota by -5.5. Despite the Falcons losing (and not covering) vs Tampa Bay at home and Minnesota executing a great comeback on the road vs Chicago, the line has moved to the Falcons at +3.5. The model strongly favors Minnesota giving them a 66% chance to cover by an average margin of 10 points. Thursday Night's Washington at Green Bay game had a very similar dynamic where the steam moved the line to as little as Washington +3, the model had the Packers by 10 and they won by 9.

With Jordan Addison out and Adam Thielen still not fully integrated into this version of the Vikings, it leaves Justin Jefferson as the primary target and driver of our J.J. McCarthy passing TD over bet. The +110 implies 47.6% and our 0.65 TDs per sim implies around a 57% chance. Jefferson accounts for 29% of receiving TDs when he plays. That already high figure would be even higher if Addison wasn't accounting for nearly 32% when he plays. If Jefferson gets a +10 percentage point bump (a 3rd of Addison's TD share) he is nearly 40% this week and even if McCarthy throws just 1 TD Jefferson could cash this bet.

While we were all over J.J. McCarthy's under 31.5 pass attempts in week 1, we and the oddsmakers now have him at 29.5 which is way over the 20 he had in Week 1. He had 2 passing touchdowns on just 20 attempts. He had a similar high TD rate on tough throws on relatively few attempts at Michigan. McCarthy is 1-0 in his career over 1.5 passing TDs and Sam Darnold was 12-5 in the regular season over this line and I think Darnold's performance in this system is the more accurate predictor of McCarthy's performance than his individual pass attempt x pass completions x rookie TD rate standard odds formula would use.

Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy, essentially a rookie, faces a quick turnaround from a Monday nighter. Several ailing compatriots on defense -- notably LB Andrew Van Ginkel and CB Jeff Okudah, both in concussion protocol -- might be reduced to spectating. Another LB, Blake Cashman, is out for certain. That should make it easier on Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr., who endured his third straight narrow SU loss last Sunday since becoming the starter when his team flubbed a medium-length game-tying field goal. (The previous two were in overtime.) This figures to be another close one, if not an outright Atlanta win, as Penix gets increasingly comfy.

This is a game that could be defined by injuries, with key players potentially out on both sides. But Atlanta looks to be in the much better spot with Drake London and Darnell Mooney practicing on Wednesday, while the Vikings could be down three key defensive players. Even with Christian Darrisaw returning, I'm not confident we should project the J.J. McCarthy from the fourth quarter Monday rather than the disaster of the first three quarters, and this number should probably be 3 tops if London and Mooney play.

I'm high on the Falcons this season. I bet Atlanta to win the NFC South and they really let one get away in the opener against the Bucs. The Falcons are beat up at receiver but while Drake London is iffy, I do expect Darnell Mooney to play in Week 2. I think this will be a close game and like Atlanta getting over a field goal in this spot vs. a rookie quarterback coming off a short week.

Michael Penix had a solid opener but he could be shorthanded at WR with Drake London's injury, and even if Darnell Mooney returns he figures to be less than 100%. He'll also have to contend with a tough Brian Flores defense in the dome, so Atlanta's scoring could be limited. J.J. McCarthy looked horrendous for three quarters despite coming on late, and it's hard to trust a repeat of the fourth quarter here. I like this down to 42.5.