This is a speculative Week 1 play based on two key factors: The Steelers’ internal knowledge about defending Justin Fields and Mike Tomlin going up against a rookie head coach. The Jets have the better offensive weapons overall and a defense with a lot of potential, but Jaylen Warren getting more carriers, DK Metcalf stepping in for George Pickens, and the addition of Jonnu Smith as an emergency valve – not to mention Aaron Rodgers actually being able to throw down the field – give a lot of reasons for optimism on the Pittsburgh side. This would be much tastier at -2.5, and I would avoid it like the plague at -3.5.

We are confident this Justin Fields/Aaron Rodgers "dual revenge game" has 16-13 written all over it wither way. Sometimes an ugly perceived matchup results in fireworks, but we'll take our chances on this one.

This is the only 19.5 on our board of 20.5s, so that's the main reason playing a little -- I tend to jump outlier lines. Maybe the others will shift down but maybe not. Pittsburgh can't get two TDs and two field goals with an upgrade at QB and WR from the offseason? You'd think Aaron Rodgers would know where to attack that Jets defense at least player-wise from his two years there. Our model has the Steelers with 24 points. Let's put it this way: If Chris Boswell doesn't miss any kicks, I think this cashes ... but certainly not by a lot. Just wanted under that magic number of 20.

This game looks to have all the makings of a rock fight. Aaron Rodger’s didn’t play a single snap in the preseason with his new team, and joins OC Arthur Smith’s methodical and conservative offense. The Steelers wide receiver corps looks thin, and I don’t see them clicking with their new QB in Week 1. The Jets will start Justin Fields at QB who the Steelers defense will be plenty familiar with, considering they practiced against him last year. Fields will face a loaded Pittsburgh defense, and is without perhaps his best OL Alijah Vera-Tucker. This line opened at 39.5 and has already been bet down. I’d take Under 38 or better to at least get the push condition on a 21-17 game.

DraftKings. Jamien Sherwood burst onto the scene last season for the Jets as an every down off-ball linebacker. He finished the season with 158 tackles (tied for third most in the league) while clearing this line in eight of his last thirteen games. Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey’s new regime’s first move was to re-sign Sherwood to a $45 million deal. I expect the linebacker to thrive in the new scheme - and Week 1 should provide an excellent opportunity to rack up the tackles. The Steelers allowed the most combined tackles to opposing linebackers last season, in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy scheme. And with Aaron Rodgers in town, with a questionable wide-receiver core, I’m expecting plenty of checkdowns to running backs and tight-ends.

Many expect Braelon Allen to take over more running responsibilities but there could be more snaps with Hall used as a receiver. Justin Fields isn't exactly Drew Brees, so having a big play threat he can just dump the ball off to is a good thing. Hall has gotten 16.5% of his team's receptions in games he's played which isn't Christian McCaffrey level (23%) but it's higher than Jahmyr Gibbs and is Bijan Robinson like. The Steelers are familiar with Fields and their pass rush won't give him much time in the pocket. Hall should be good for at least 3 receptions and he has gone over 17.5 in 17 of 22 games with at least 3 catches.

Calvin Austin is WR2 behind DK Metcalf and above Roman Wilson who had 0 catches as a rookie, Scott Miller who had 5 rec in '24, and Ben Skowronek who also had 5. Aaron Rodgers' completion line is 19.5 and DK Metcalf's rec line is 4.5. Who is going to catch the 15 other receptions? How can Calvin Austin, whose only negative is his small stature, not be in line for 20% of the receptions this season? The model projects him for 3.

These two teams are very similar in how they are built, both on the field and philosophically. Ironically, the difference in this game will be Jets QB Justin FIelds athleticism and his ability to create off-script with his legs. Combining with their talented backfield of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, look for the Jets to be able to beat Pittsburgh at their own game.

There’s plenty of familiarity on both sides when it comes to these defensive units matching up against the opposing quarterbacks. The Jets hold the edge at quarterback and across the skill positions, which makes catching a full +3 at home particularly appealing given that I project this game as a true pick’em. With a strong defensive front and secondary depth, the Jets are well-positioned to generate enough disruption to keep Aaron Rodgers and the opposing offense off balance.

If I give the Jets only two points for home field advantage, my line says the Steelers should be favored by just ½ point. Justin Fields has outperformed Rodgers in several key metrics over their last 17 starts, including Total QBR (52.0 vs. 48.0), completion percentage over expected (2.4% vs. -5.2%), and yards per attempt (7.0 vs. 6.7). Fields also holds a superior record as a starter during this span (9-8 vs. 5-12). Aaron Glenn will know how to defend Aaron Rodgers, who is a statue in the pocket at this point in his career. Grab the Jets +3 while you still can.

This is my best value play of Week 1 by far as we get into training camp season. The two starting QBs played for the opposite team last year, and I see the Jets as the team upgrading at the position. The Jets defense still has the personnel to be successful, and they're better at the skill positions thanks to Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. The Steelers definitely have the coaching edge, but favored on the road is the spot to fade Mike Tomlin. I would make the Jets slight favorites here.