DraftKings. Perhaps a bit speculative based on preseason, but Hunter Renfrow carried an average depth of target of 2.2 yards on his six preseason targets. After not making the team initially, and then re-signing, I expect Renfrow to see limited snaps in three receiver sets.

I’m late to the party here, but I think the Jaguars can win this game by margin. Carolina finished last in defensive DVOA last season, and this year’s unit could finish near the bottom again. Jacksonville have explosive weapons on offense, and a dynamic play caller in new HC Liam Coen. They should be improved on defense too, after drafting two-way CB/WR phenom Travis Hunter. Look for the Jags defensive unit to take a step forward under fiery DC Anthony Campanile. Panthers QB Bryce Young will be without WR Jalen Coker & LT Ikem Okwonu to open the year, and lost his favorite target WR Adam Thielen this offseason. Young is 4-9 ATS on the road in his career. Jags roll in their home opener.

In his last healthy season, Trevor Lawrence averaged 4.4 carries. And coach Liam Coen recently indicated he might use Lawrence on QB sneaks to pick up short yardage. Jacksonville is favored in this matchup, so we could get a kneeldown or two at the end of the game. I bet Lawrence to carry the ball at least four times.

Jaguars new head coach Liam Coen must be salivating over his new weapons. Expect him to immediately draw up looks for WR Brian Thomas Jr, Jacksonville’s most talented player on offense. BTJ proved to be an elite wideout in his rookie campaign, averaging 75.4 receiving yards per game. Thomas Jr cleared this total in 11/17 games last season, and has an excellent Week 1 matchup against a sub-par Panthers secondary. Look for BTJ to get off to a hot start.

Brian Thomas Jr. had one of the best seasons by a rookie WR in NFL history despite Trevor Lawrence only appearing in 10 games and playing for a miserable Jags team. Enter year 2 and Thomas is the clear focal point and engine of a Jacksonville passing offense which should be vastly improved under new HC Liam Cohen. Thomas consistently earned targets all over the field and I expect Thomas to move around the formation more frequently. In a game environment with shootout potential, Thomas has triple digit upside and should feast.

Chuba Hubbard has been a workhorse for the Carolina Panthers and I don’t expect his role to change much, despite the Panthers bringing in Rico Dowdle in Free Agency and spending a 4th round draft pick on Trevor Etienne. Hubbard has been a major bright spot for the Panthers and was rewarded with a rare mid season contract extension and is clearly viewed as a building block. Carolina prioritized upgrading their offensive line as well. If Dowdle and Etienne do eat in Hubbard workload I expect it to mostly come on third down. Hubbard averaged 22.25 rushing attempts in wins least season and I think we see a competitive gamescript versus what is likely to be a subpar Jacksonville rush defense.

Trevor Lawrence revamped his mechanics under new coach Liam Coen. Preseason results were encouraging. He's going to get rid of the ball faster than he did last season, and that should lead to more completions. Lawrence has tremendous targets to throw to now and a soft matchup vs. Carolina. Look for Lawrence to rack up at least 22 completions.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are implementing a "tush push" for Trevor Lawrence this season. Liam Coen is very creative on offense and they were one of the teams that did not want to ban the "tush push". The Panthers' front seven is a weakness that Lawrence can exploit.

I think Travis Etienne's hold on RB1 is tenuous and it's too early for rookie Bhayshul Tuten to be THE guy. Tank Bigsby is Fantasy Football Today's RB41 this week because he is expected to be the goal line RB. In the 28 games he's played he has accounted for 39% of carries, 43% of rushing yards and 50% of rushing TDs. The higher rates in yards and TDs is what you want to see... not Etienne's 47% of carries, 44.8% of yards, 32% of rush TDs.

Brian Thomas scored in 9 of 17 games as a rookie and the Panthers allowed 35 points per game. They didn't allow 11.5 field goals per game. BTJ is projected for 0.9 TDs because Trevor Lawrence is -110 over 1.5 TDs (~1.65) and BTJ accounted for 53% of his team's receiving TDs as a rookie. Travis Hunter could account for a big chunk of receiver stats right off the bat but three leading receivers from WK 1 of last season for the Jags (Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis) are all gone. When >50% of targets is gone and you replace it with a ~20% of targets in Hunter it still leaves Brian Thomas Jr. with his normal share.

With Jalen Coker on IR and Adam Thielen shipped off to Minnesota, Xavier Legette is primed for a bigger role. We will certainly see plenty of targets go to prized rookie Tet McMillan, among others, but I do think Xavier Legette's targets will click up a notch, particularly when you consider a high total (46.5), a porous Jags secondary and a likely negative game script. Legette isn't the most efficient receiver, but a year two bounce back is in play and he could potentially hit this number with 1-2 receptions (ladder potential here as well).

The Panthers gave up an NFL-high 18.2 points per game in the first half last season. While the defense should be improved with Derrick Brown's return, I like Liam Coen's offense to start fast at home behind a retooled Trevor Lawrence. He's got outstanding weapons in Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Dyami Brown and Brenton Strange. Look for Lawrence to get rid of the ball quicker than he did last season, and for the Jags to lead at halftime. I wouldn't play this higher than -150.

These two teams gave up the most yards and most points per drive in the league last year, which could make this an entertaining opener. But I take a look at the matchup and find myself believing more in Jacksonville on both sides of the ball, and that plus home field advantage is enough to overcome my typical caution playing new head coaches in Week 1. The Jags have more in the passing game with Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, and the Panthers defense may not be able to slow them down much. On the other side, the young Carolina passing game figures to be more inconsistent, and I like fading them on the road laying less than 3.

Not a huge lookahead NFL bettor and frankly barring injury (or Bears games) you might not see my picks until morning of. But I think Jacksonville is potentially very underrated. Cade McNown looked like a future Hall of Famer for the Bears in the 1999 preseason -- and we know how that worked out -- so I'm certainly not getting over my skis here, but Trevor Lawrence has looked great under new HC Liam Coen. Travis Hunter is a bad man. I also believe the Jags may finally have the Urban Meyer stink off them --- my pick to win the AFC South. I waited too long, had a few 2.5-point options a few days ago but gone. So moneyline it is.

These clubs were both bottom 5 in scoring defense last year, combining to yield 57 points per game to their opponents. What's more, both clubs appear to have made their biggest strides on offense. Jacksonville hired an offensive mind in new coach Liam Coen and drafted dynamic two-way star Travis Hunter. Carolina's Dave Canales saw his club come alive down the stretch last season and added a foundational piece in WR Tetairoa McMillan at No. 8 overall in the draft. Look for these clubs to engage in a Week 1 shootout that will coast Over a total that is likely to close in the range of 48 or higher. Grab it now.