This spread feels huge. Plus, history tells us not to discount the Steelers and Mike Tomlin as underdogs or against AFC North opponents. However, Pittsburgh has lost four straight by 13.0 ppg, fell at Baltimore by 17 and stands 0-4 in the playoffs since 2016 losing its last three by 15.3 ppg. Its anemic offense features Russell Wilson struggling downfield outside of moonballs to George Pickens. There’s talk of involving Justin Fields. Will it matter? The Ravens not having Zay Flowers is concerning, but they still possess far more weapons overall. Baltimore averages 100 more yards, 8 more ppg than Pittsburgh. The defenses are near statistical mirrors. The Ravens are 4-0 SU & ATS since their bye winning by 23 ppg (two against playoff teams).

Oddsmakers are making a statement with this line. These division rivals will meet for a third time this season, after splitting the first two 1-1. But Baltimore handled Pittsburgh 34-17 just 3 weeks ago.The Steelers have overachieved all season, and the Ravens have been a secondary away from being elite. Defensive coordinator Zach Orr now has these defensive backs locked in, along with the league’s #1 rush defense. If the Steelers can’t find the deep ball, their run game will be stifled and they won’t be able to keep pace with this high-octane Ravens offense. Despite the well known trends and voodoo magic of “Mike Tomlin as a dog”, I’m still willing to lay the points. Ravens flock.

Lamar Jackson won't have his top receiver, Zay Flowers. He's facing a much healthier Steelers secondary than he did in the previous meeting. Look for Jackson to go Under this prop total against the Steelers for the third time this season.

Considering the nature of this series, a spread this high causes a double-take. Ten straight Steelers-Ravens games were decided by seven points or fewer prior to Baltimore's 34-17 win three weeks ago, part of a four-game Steelers skid to end the season. But note that before the late-season slide, Mike Tomlin had covered 14 of his previous 17 as an underdog, rarely getting the sort of points he is in this wild card game. And prior to the late December loss at M&T Bank Stadium, the Steelers had won four straight in this series. Tomlin has also mostly been able to keep Lamar Jackson in check throughout his career, too....has that much changed in this series in a few weeks? Play Steelers

Warren has been a reliable dual-threat back this season. He has seen 4+ targets in 6 of his past 8 games, and has cleared this receiving yards mark in 6 of his past 9. The Steelers offense struggled in the last month of the season. RB Najee Harris’ north-south run style has been inefficient lately, and Warren offers Pittsburgh a more dynamic look in the backfield. Look for Russell Wilson to check down to Warren when pressure comes, and find him in the flat on early downs. The Steelers will need to stay out of ‘3rd and long’, and utilizing Warren in the pass game could be key to that.

The Ravens destroyed the Steelers running out of the pistol last time out and Hill was in line for a significant role before a concussion suffered after an explosive run. Ravens may experiment with more tempo here, which means more Hill. Steelers pass rush won't be as tepid as last time out, either, and Hill is a big winner in the screen game. Playing his receiving yards 40 and above in alt markets. Hill is over this in 4 of his last 5 games, including the Steelers game he barely played in

Tight end Isaiah Likely drew five targets last week and he should be heavily involved Saturday against the Steelers. With Zay Flowers sidelined, the Ravens should rely heavily on their elite tight ends in Mark Andrews and Likely. In two matchups against Pittsburgh, which plays more single-high safety than any team, Likely caught seven of eight targets for 104 yards.

The Ravens ride all kinds of momentum going into this game with a four-game win and cover streak and going over the total three of the four. The one that didn't get over was against the Texans who had a pathetic effort scoring two points in a 31-2 loss. The Steelers have lost four straight and stayed under four of the last five games. In the previous meeting, the game was close tied at 17 in the third quarter but then it ended 34-17. The Ravens have the No. 1 offense in the NFL and the No. 3 scoring offense at 30.5 a game. They got over the total 13 out of 17 games. Over.

Another correlated play with Derrick Henry's rushing yards. Baltimore is undefeated this season (7-0) when giving him 21+ carries, in which he's topped 100 yards rushing each time. I'm projecting Baltimore to be protecting a healthy lead throughout and therefore giving their star runner closer to 30 than 20 carries.

In eight games this season that he's received 20+ carries, Derrick Henry has topped the 100-yard mark in all of them. With Pittsburgh scuffling, look for Baltimore to take an early lead on Saturday night and ride their star running back to the finish with 20+ carries and 100+ rushing yards.

Joey Porter Jr. only played 16 snaps in Baltimore's 34-17 win over Pittsburgh in Week 16, leaving the Steelers without three starting members of its secondary along with a key defensive lineman and No. 1 wideout George Pickens. All five are available Saturday, whereas the Ravens likely won't have top wideout Zay Flowers. I still like the Ravens to win Saturday and ultimately win the Super Bowl -- they have a historically great offense and a much-improved defense. But in this specific divisional rivalry, it's too many points.

Lamar Jackson is coming off his best regular season as a passer, but we should expect him to use his legs in the playoffs. He's averaged 59.9 yards per game in the regular season and hasn't had a season below 50 yards per game since becoming a full-time starter, but he's also rushed for 86.8 yards per game in the playoffs with only one of his six games short of 54 rushing yards. Even though the Steelers held him to 22 yards on nine carries in the most recent meeting, I'll back Jackson to get to 50 yards as usual in this spot.

Before Baltimore beat Pittsburgh by 17 in Week 16, there had been nine straight one-score games between these rivals, and I think we will see that again if the Steelers can "slow" the game down and keep Lamar Jackson & Co. off the field. I was pondering holding out for +10.5 but always considered that unlikely and now even the 10s might disappear with the news that Ravens Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers likely is out. Mike Tomlin is usually money ATS as a dog.

The Ravens fixed almost everything about their broken pass defense since Week 11. Almost. However they still cannot defend screens in the middle of the field, particularly RBs. It's been an issue since Week 1 and Roquan Smith has suffered in coverage and their other ILBs are very limited athletically. Warren caught all 5 of his targets in the last meeting for 44 yards and it was one of few winning looks Russell Wilson had in either game vs this defense. With the deep ball drying up, expect a heavy reliance on screens to keep the chains moving, as the Ravens run D is elite.

Simply put: I don't think the Steelers can score enough to keep up with the Ravens' offense and keep this game close. Lamar Jackson had a MVP caliber season, and Derrick Henry nearly went over 2,000 yards for the second time in his career. I have a massive amount of respect for Mike Tomlin, and the Steelers' defense is very, very good. But with their offense in shambles I expect Baltimore to be in short field situations regularly. Ravens by 13+ here.

The Steelers simply aren't a good offensive football team right now. Russell Wilson has regressed, George Pickens drops are head-scratching, and the team just looks out of sync. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers defense can only do so much. The Ravens, on the other hand, are rolling. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are going to be a problem for any team they face, and I just can't see the Steelers keeping this game close.

Lamar is built for speed more than every before and slimmed down, just for this time of year. He soared over this in 4 of the last 5 regular season games. He has at least 50 yards in 5 of 6 career playoff games and is 100 or over in 3 of them. The Steelers defense had no answers for the mesh point runs in the pistol in their last meeting to Derrick Henry; they'll have to adjust here and I expect Lamar to prosper from that. Steelers tend to play those looks very aggressively, leaving the outside running lanes open. Lamar kept in inside runs in that game (just 22 rushing yards); expect more outside designed runs and scrambles.

Well aware of Lamar's issues in the playoffs. but he's never been at this level before. He's hit this in 6 straight games and 10 of the last 11. He's hit this in 5 straight home games, including vs PIT a few weeks back. Sagging Steelers D has allowed this to hit in 5 of the last 6 games. Had no answers for Ravens passing and running out of the pistol in last meeting. Dude had 41 passing TDs this season. He is overdue for a monster playoff performance.

The gap between these two teams looks massive heading into the playoffs, with the Ravens winning their last four games 135-43 and the Steelers losing their last four games 109-57. However, I expect Pittsburgh will do a better job slowing down the Baltimore rushing attack than it did in Week 15, and George Pickens can't possibly be as bad here as he was in the Bengals game. This is also a trend play, with divisional underdogs 10-4 ATS in the playoffs since the 2014 season. I expect the Steelers to turn this into a defensive battle the Ravens will be happy to win by a touchdown.

Though Baltimore routed them a few weeks ago, the Steelers took the first round this season and have won eight of the last 10 meetings outright. Pittsburgh is mired in a four-game losing streak, but its conquerors are an impressive lot — Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals. The belief here is that coach Mike Tomlin can dig them out of the slump, draw on his successful game-planning against Lamar Jackson and deliver a competitive game. Pittsburgh is 10-2 straight-up in the last dozen playoff games versus division foes, a testament to its preparation for a third face-off in the same season. The spread for the latest matchup was just 7.5, so this figure represents a leap, especially if standout Ravens WR Zay Flowers is out.

Part of me thinks this is crazy, given the nature of this series and how close the games invariably are. But the Ravens just outclassed the Steelers at home a few weeks ago, and while BAL offense has yet to break through in the playoffs under Lamar, I'm not sure PIT scores more than 14 points here. Ravens pistol motion runs destroyed the Steelers in last meeting, the return of blocking TE Charlie Kolar is an added boost and BAL lost 3rd down back Justice Hill in that game, too. He will be back. Russ Wilson looks cooked. Since Week 14 bye BAL has 4 straight wins by 17+ including vs PIT. Holding BAL under 30 points will be a major chore.