This season has been a grind for the Eagles, but going head-to-head with the Giants, you must give them the edge at most key positions. Malik Nabers will get his returning to the field, but so will Saquon Barkley against a rushing defense that would prefer to face basically anyone else. Daniel Jones should have issues against Philadelphia’s defense given Andrew Thomas is out, and while Jalen Hurts will be missing Dallas Goedert, his ceiling is so much higher when most of his weapons are healthy. I do trust Brian Daboll more than Nick Sirianni, but perhaps the pressure the latter has felt will be off a bit on the road here. If Philly somehow falls … begin the countdown …

I'm arriving to this number a little late, would have preferred 43.5 but I will still bite. Giants QB Daniel Jones is 23-9 to the Under when playing at home in his career. The Giants offensive line will now be without Tackle Andrew Thomas for the rest of the season. The Eagles just added elite Tackle Jordan Mailata to their injured reserve as well. Both teams will be weakened at the line of scrimmage as a result. The Giants secondary has quietly improved, led by standout rookie DB Andru Phillips. New York also gets great QB pressure, and I expect Jalen Hurts to be under duress often. Ultimately, this is a Daniel Jones home under auto-bet for me.

The Giants have played above expectations thus far. But this is a difficult spot coming off a taxing prime-time effort against the Bengals and without multiple key defensive players. Moreover, it's the return of Saqoun Barkley amid a sense of urgency for an Eagles club eager to get back on track.

Dallas Goedert (hamstring) is out Sunday. His replacement, Grant Calcaterra, showed explosiveness last week while catching four passes for 67 yards. Calcaterra played at Oklahoma with Jalen Hurts, so they have chemistry. He's caught one pass of 15-plus yards in three of the last four games. With Calcaterra locked in as the primary receiving tight end, I bet Over on his longest reception.

The Eagles have won five of the past six matchups, and I like them to keep it going in Saquon Barkley's return to MetLife Stadium. Kayvon Thibodeaux is on IR; Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence are questionable. While Malik Nabers returns, Philly has an edge with its a defensive front against a Giants O-line missing left tackle Andrew Thomas. The Eagles got 10 hits on Deshaun Watson last week, including five sacks.

Saquon Barkley is the last RB New York wants to see. The Giants have allowed the second most rush yards per carry, and their cherished former teammate returns to show the error in their ways to let him leave for Philly. The poor ground D also invites QB Jalen Hurts to add to his 43 career running TDs. The Eagles welcomed a bye to settle down amid rumors of a rift between Hurts and coach Nick Sirianni. The Giants have averaged 11.5 ppg in their four losses and must soldier on without injured LT Andrew Thomas, who is likely done for the year.

The Giants had lost five straight to the Eagles until winning last year against a sleepwalking Eagles team that proceeded to get embarrassed at Tampa a week later in the playoffs. But I'm on the Eagles because of Saquon Barkley. He's not going to let the Giants win over him and he's also got two healthy star receivers to make Jalen Hurts comfortable behind the pocket. I'm sure the entire Eagles team wants Barkley to get the win. Bet Over on all his props. I'm on the Eagles to win and cover.

While the Giants aren't playing bad football, there is a ceiling to their offensive potential and that will show up in this game. Expect the Eagles to push the tempo and pace with the passing game, while former Giants RB Saquon Barkley to have his best day as a pro.

Philadelphia has allowed two or more made field goals in every game this season, so let's keep it going. I expect the Giants to stall inside the 40 multiple times to give us a few chances. Joseph has multiple attempts in each of the last three games and he's looking to bounce back off an 0 for 2 performance in Week 6.

The Eagles #2 WR is over this number in his last five against the Giants and has seen nice volume in the four games he's played in this year. Smith has a 25% target share, a 38% air-yard share, and a 33% first-read share, all numbers pointing to another solid day against this NFC East rival. I think he'll end up closer to the 76 yards per game he's averaging thus far in 2024.

Malik Nabers is trending toward playing in this game, but the Giants are dealing with a lot of other key injuries. Kayvon Thibodeaux is out, and Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence remain sidelined in Thursday's practice. That means the Eagles offense could score more points than expected, putting the pressure on Daniel Jones to keep up. Speaking of pressure, he also won't have Andrew Thomas protecting his blindside, so there's a chance the Eagles defensive front does what it did to the Saints and completely dominates the game. That was a two-point win that should've been much larger, and I think we should expect that larger outcome here.

Always risky taking any Eagles RB for an anytime TD as Jalen Hurts usually siphons them off, but I have to think Philly gives Saquon Barkley multiple goal-line attempts if possible to score against his former Giants team that didn't even want him back this offseason.

Eagles may have to lean into the screen game here, against a potent blitz. No reason not to put the ball in his hands at least 20 times. I see explosive runs and some serious YAC opportunities here as well. Wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him run for over 100 yards alone. Eagles can't afford to get too cute here against a team that tends to play them tough. Must win game for Philly

Revenge games can get a little blown out of proportion, but this one is legit. Anyone who watched Hard Knocks knows how this went and how much this first game vs the Giants will mean to this RB. Eagles offense has struggled by the Giants are 32nd vs the rush. And their DL is kicking ass with the pass rush and blowing up plays. G-men allowing 5.2/carry and nearly two yards before contact. Eagles OL can move people around in the run game. And Jalen Hurts not the threat running he used to be. Seems like a big Saquan game to me.

Both teams will be missing their left tackles in this matchup, and considering the struggles of each offense to date, I don't expect this to be a high-scoring game. The Giants had a quality game against a beat-up Seahawks D but couldn't do much at home against the Cowboys or Bengals, while the Eagles only scored 20 against the woeful Browns despite getting both top receivers back. I expect the defensive fronts to largely be the story of this game, and even if Jalen Hurts makes it work and puts up points, we could still hit this Under with a 27-13 type of game. More likely I think we're rolling toward a 20-17 type of final.

The Giants are 5-1 to the under, averaging 36.17 points (28th). They are 9-2 to the under at home since the start of '23, 32.27 points/game, 32nd in the NFL. The Eagles have played 11 road games since the start of last season, and 8 have gone under. They are a combined 8-3 to the under this season. They each have bottom 7 red zone offenses in the NFL and each have top 6 RZ defenses. Neither offense can sustain much of anything at all. Gints have had the Eagles number lately (10-4 ATS the last 7 years), and hold them in check. Four of the Eagles games this season are under this total and five of the Giants games failed to reach 40 points.