Until Houston improves in the red zone I’ll keep playing this. Plus this guy doesn’t miss much.

Schultz is simply not getting enough looks. I project 3-4 targets so under 4 catches is a value

The Texans are 0-2 against the spread this season -- I expect that their ATS record to be 1-2 after this game. I am always hesitant betting against home underdogs in the NFL, but this Texans' team is for real. Justin Jefferson will be a problem for Houston, but the former LSU star may not be 100% healthy. Brian Flores has Minnesota's defense over-achieving, but in the end I see Houston winning by 3+.

Derek Stingley is an elite corner, but he'll primarily be on Justin Jefferson. That leaves Vikings No. 2 wideout Jalen Nailor with an attractive matchup. The Texans rank dead last in DVOA against No. 2 wideouts. With Jordan Addison still sidelined, look for Nailor to clear this prop total.

The Vikings are off to a 2-0 start behind a sturdy defense and the surprising efficiency of journeyman QB Sam Darnold. The high-powered Texans settled for too many FGs last week against the stubborn Bears, but they should have the edge in this matchup and cover the short number.

This basically comes down to believing in CJ Stroud over Sam Darnold, even in a home spot for the Vikings. Yes, Minnesota is riding high through two weeks, and it is coming off a surprising upset of San Francisco that has legitimately and deservingly turned heads. That means it is due for a let down against a Houston team that gave a lot away last week and probably should have won by margin. The Texans’ bevy of offensive weapons should win out in the end.

This number has slid down and kudos for those who grabbed it early but I’m still taking it here. He is dinged up and losing time share.

Texans RB Cam Akers will be set to take on lead back duties with both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce ruled out. However, I think this total is too high for Akers against this Vikings defense that ranks #2 in defensive rush DVOA. Brian Flores has this Vikings defense dialed in to start the season, and I don't see Akers carving them up. Akers has never been a workhorse style running back. He is likely to split carries with Dare Ogunbowale, and even to gadget WR Tank Dell who could get some sweep looks. Houston will need to beat Minnesota through the air. Akers will go Under this total.

Collins has had over 110 yards in each of his first two games and over 80 yards in five of his past six including the playoffs. He's simply C.J. Stroud's favorite target, and that's especially been the case when Stroud is pressured: Collins had an 18.5% target per route run rate last year with a 67% catch rate, and he's at a 33.3% target per route run rate this year with a 100% catch rate -- and 27 yards per catch! This matters because the Vikings pressure more than nearly everybody (top-10 in pass rush pressure rate and sixth in blitz rate). And Stroud has been lights-out when facing blitzes and pressures.

Houston is very good against the run and Minnesota's Aaron Jones seems to be losing some carries to Ty Chandler but also being used more as a pass-catching back. Jones was targeted six times last Sunday and caught five for 36 yards. The model has Jones with 26 yards Sunday.

Brian Flores has the Vikings D getting huge stops and he is 3-0 vs Kyle Shanahan offenses, including last week. The Texas are running that offense, with former SF coaches. Flores has allowed just 17 PPG in those games and just 228 pass yards. 6 total offensive TDs. Shut down CMC last year. -15.8 offensive EPA in those games. Texans still young in some key spots, love how Kevin O'Connell is using Sam Darnold. CJ Stroud is 3-7 ATS as a favorite. Stroud strong vs blitz but Flores has backed off the uber-aggression this year. Vikings. Very live to win this game outright. Texans have looked a little spotty to me early on

The Vikings are coming off an impressive win over the 49ers where the offense cooked and the defense got cooked more than the final score indicated, giving up 5.9 y/p as Jordan Mason and Brock Purdy performed well. This is another top-tier offense that was probably short-changed on scoreboard last week, getting into Bears territory seven times but scoring one TD and fumbling inside the 5. The lookahead here was Texans -4, and even with me upgrading the Vikings to above average I think this should be Texans -2.5 at worst.

This looks like a great spot to fade the veteran RB Aaron Jones after struggling against a stout 49ers run defense. Jones turned 9 carries into 32 yards. Jones also got dinged up in the 2nd half and at this stage of his career, the soon to be 30 year old RB has had durability issues/struggled staying on the field. Jones will face another stout run defense in the Texans that has shut down D'Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor in consecutive weeks, holding each RB to sub 3.0 YPC. Ty Chandler also has been productive for the Vikings and is averaging 5.5 YPC, while out carrying and out gaining Jones on the ground.

This line is going to drop. The Texans are not good in the red zone and the Viking offense may be overachieving a bit.