The steam on the upstart Texans has reduced the spread and the ML to the point where there's value on the Bengals, who appear to be in peak form behind 4 consecutive wins. It still feels a but dicey to lay points given Cincy's banged-up WRs unit, but this feels like a safe parlay piece to pair with another chalk such as Buffalo on Monday night.

Noah Brown has led the Texans in receiving in each of the last two weeks and he's done so with a highly efficient catch rate. Robert Woods is back, but there's simply no way you can take Noah Brown off the field after what we've seen the last couple of weeks. Add that Nico Collins is out and there should be plenty to go around among the pass catchers. Noah Brown has proven he can be explosive and get some YAC so he may not need a ton of volume in this likely high scoring game.

With Ja'Marr Chase active -- even though his bad back could see him leave the game at any time -- the Bengals are the play against a Texans side without Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce. Cincinnati has found its footing offensively with Joe Burrow finally healthy -- balance has returned to that unit -- and the defense continues to be strong haven given up just 17 points per game over the last four contests. I like this through -6.5 for Cincinnati but prefer -5.5 or -6.

The Bengals might be without their top two WRs with Tee Higgins already ruled out and Ja'Marr Chase a GTD. The last time Higgins missed a game, Irwin filled in admirably and finished with a 10 target, 8 reception, and 60 yard performance, while playing 76% of the snaps. This looks like another great spot for Irwin with Joe Burrow's passing prop set at 274.5 yards. Burrow and Irwin will be facing a depleted Texans secondary who will be without numerous starters like Jimmy Ward, MJ Stewart, Steven Nelson. Look for Irwin to be on the field a lot and get peppered with targets.

The Texans have this amazing passing game with a bombastic rookie QB, and this is the best they can do at running back?! Given the chance to be their lead rusher last week he averaged 2.0 yards per carry against the Bucs, who are good against the run, but 2.0?? This week it doesn’t get easier for Singletary against the Bengals, who have allowed 3.2 yards per carry and 0.61 yards before contact per rush to RBs in their last three versus the Bills, Seahawks and 49ers – and think about those last two teams. Those are supposed to be good running teams. The Texans are literally the third-worst rushing team this season.

Last week was fun for C.J. Stroud, 470 passing yards and 5 TD's. Unfortunately this week he will not enjoy the same success. Cincy's Defense is stout. They held the Bills to just 18 points and the 49ers to17 points the week before. More impressively, the Bengals have not allowed ANY team to break the 20-point threshold during their 4 game winning streak. As for the Texans, in 3 of their 4 road games they have failed to get to 20 points. I'll take the under on their team total in The Jungle.

The Texans listed 23 -- 23! -- players Wednesday on their injury list. Now, many might suit up Sunday, but the enormity of the ailing bunch suggests that plenty will sit out. The Bengals are loaded for bear, have won four in a row straight-up and are home Sunday with QB Joe Burrow in a zone. While Houston rookie QB C.J. Stroud had a game for the ages last Sunday, he had been bogged down in a slump, so assuming he will tack on another productive game is risky.

After their 15-13 loss at Carolina, the Texans decided to go pass-heavy and were much more aggressive versus Tampa Bay. The results were stunning: C.J. Stroud threw for 470 yards and five TDs, including going 16 of 19 for 298 yards and four TDs on first down. Houston threw 42 times and rushed 17 times all game. Weather won't be a factor Sunday. Expect another aggressive approach as Stroud goes Over on passing yards.

Generally don't like playing games this early but this is the last 6.5 left so we better take it -- and hope Ja'Marr Chase plays through his injury. It's an Ohio State Bowl of sorts between CJ Stroud and Joe Burrow (in case you forgot, Burrow began his NCAA career there but didn't play much before leaving for LSU). Guess that cliche of former Buckeyes QBs stinking in the NFL is over -- jury is still out on Justin Fields). Stroud has been amazing but Cincinnati is rolling.

CJ Stroud was amazing Sun but this is a major step up. Texans score 17.8 Offensive Pts/G on road; 27.3 at home. It’s 408 yards/G and 8.6/pass at home; 294 and 6.3 on road. Stroud kills the blitz but Bengals play heavy coverage and deceive. Stroud has 87.0 rating vs Cover-2 and Bengals allow 54.8 rating in C-2; Texans can't run, so 2 high safeties doesn’t trouble me. Joe Mixon will win in screen game sustaining drives (Texans allow 8.3 yard/pass to RBs). Bengals RZ D will carry them again. Healthy Burrow has been amazing the last 4 games and Texans pass D is running into a machine here. CIN 17-7 ATS since '22, 4 straight covers. HOU 26th in RZ% on road

C.J. Stroud is coming off a historic performance, and that has the market moving this line toward the Texans. While I love the direction Houston is heading in, it's important to note the team couldn't break 20 points in its previous three games against the Panthers, Saints and Falcons. This is a comedown spot for the Texans against an elite Bengals team with a healthy Joe Burrow. Cincy's defense is also on the ascent after holding the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills to 18 or fewer points in three straight. I have this line at Cincy -8 so I'd make the Bengals a play if you can lay less than a TD.