Apparently Kelce's back is legitimately an issue and he was a game-time call -- but of course will play. Surely the Bengals players know about that injury, though, and I'm not saying they will target Kelce's back ... uh yeah they will. So, I have to lean under here on the chance Kelce leaves injured or truly is limited.

There’s been no stauncher backer of the Bengals down the stretch than your’s truly, but even I am shocked that the contrarian play in the AFC Championship Game is the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. There seems to be an inherent bias against Kansas City with Tyreek Hill no longer on the roster, and while the offense may be less explosive, it’s actually more efficient. Mahomes with no rest, rehabilitation or even a brace gutted out a win, and now he’s had all the aforementioned items to aid his recovery. As noted last week, Cincinnati over Buffalo was a total no-brainer, but it does not change Cincy's recent close games against teams with far worse offenses like Baltimore and New England. With Travis Kelce playing, I'm willing to buck the trendy play and lay the short number with KC.

The three Burrow-Mahomes matchups have averaged 55 points. So why an Under? Patrick Mahomes must endure a bum ankle that could be especially uncomfortable when the temperatures dip into the teens. Two key targets, TE Travis Kielce and WR Mecole Hartman, also are ailing to a lesser extent. The Bengals yielded the fifth fewest points in the regular season. On Cincinnati's side, the O-line is missing three regulars, though it did shine last week when short-handed. Kansas City went 2-7 Under at home, similar to the Bengals' 6-3 Under record on the road.

McKinnon was a surprising non-factor in the passing game last week, but that should be an aberration. He has been a preferred red-zone target, with 56 catches and nine TDs this season. With Patrick Mahomes possibly limited, quick-release passes and/or designed screens could be integral to the game plan. Look for McKinnon to do some work in the passing game and clip this number.

Anyone who has followed this rollercoaster this spread has taken could have both sides at +2.5 by now. The number fluctuated based on the speculation regarding the health of Patrick Mahomes, who will be playing on a sprained ankle. The Bengals' rapid transformation from perennial cellar dweller to perennial contender overnight has been fun to watch, but they are no longer the adorable underdog. The verbal jabs they have taken were heard by the Chiefs, who still have more big-game experience and the home-field edge in this matchup. In what looks to be a growing rivalry for AFC supremacy, the Chiefs will even the score Sunday.

The Bengals-Chiefs game has a higher chance of being a shootout with Patrick Mahomes practicing in full all week, which has caused the total to rise. Chase didn't get as much work as usual last week with the Bengals in control in the snow, but prior to that he had reached seven receptions in every one of his games since Week 4. The only time he didn't have double-digit targets in that stretch was against Cincinnati, but he still managed seven catches on eight targets there. The gameplan for Cincinnati should remain getting the ball out quick and into Chase's hands, and it'll be hard to stop him getting seven receptions.

Hayden Hurst has made at least four catches in seven of his past nine games, and one of the outliers came versus Kansas City. In that Week 13 win, Hurst drew three targets and caught two balls despite suffering an early injury. In fact, he ran only six routes so he was targeted half the time. This prop is heavily juiced, but I think it's worth it now that Hurst has no injury designation.

Mahomes has been under this total in three of his last six games (not including last week’s injury-plagued outing). He also has fallen under this total in the past three against the Bengals. That's in addition to the potential that he is limited by his ankle injury -- or even aggravates it and has to leave early. The Bengals defense is legit across all levels and is not getting the attention it deserves. Even a fully healthy Mahomes could fall short of this number.

I know SL expert PropStarz is leaning over 57.5 yards on Higgins and I certainly don't research props like he does, but I'll have to disagree. Yes, Higgins could get this on one catch, but in the six games since Ja'Marr Chase returned from injury in Week 13, Higgins has exceeded a scant 37 receiving yards just once and had 35 in the regular-season KC matchup. Obviously tough to get a ton of targets for Higgins when Joe Burrow has Chase, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine. There's always the injury factor as well -- that burned me last week on the Cowboys' Tony Pollard.

Think we can safely assume there will be no designed runs for Patrick Mahomes so, hey, if that leads to a couple more carries for the seventh-round rookie Pacheco all the better. He has topped this number in nine of his past 10 -- including the first meeting with Cincinnati. We just have to hope Jerick McKinnon siphons off as few carries as possible.

Granted, the Chiefs lost at home in last year's AFC title game but home teams have won 14 of the past 18 conference title games overall. The Bengals are freaking good, but they are sure talking a lot of smack -- "Burrowhead" Stadium, for example. I don't think that's wise. People forget how bad the Cincinnati offense looked in the Wild Card Round win over Baltimore. That piecemeal offensive line was great last week vs. Buffalo, but will it be again vs. the likes of Chris Jones and Frank Clark? Yes, Joe Burrow is 3-0 vs. Patrick Mahomes, but Cincy had to rally in each. Obviously I'm assuming Mahomes is at least in the ballpark of 100 percent with his ankle.

With the Chiefs relying so heavily on Travis Kelce against the Jaguars, Smith-Schuster was only targeted two times. Over the last four games, he has received a total of just 11 targets, leaving him to catch no more than three passes in any of them. Kadarius Toney was targeted seven times last week, and he has at least four receptions in two of the last three games. With Smith-Schuster’s role trending down, the under is appealing.

Kelce shines the brightest in the playoffs. He dominated the Jaguars last week, finishing with 14 catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns. That marked his seventh straight playoff game with at least 95 receiving yards. When these two teams met in the AFC Championship last season, he caught 10 of 11 targets for 95 yards. The Chiefs should look his way early and often as they try to advance to the Super Bowl, making the over the way to go.

Samaje Perine is an outstanding pass blocker, and that's why he ended up running 38 routes last postseason compared to Joe Mixon's 24. He caught all five of his targets for 31 yards in last week's 27-10 win over Buffalo. Mixon wasn't available for the regular-season matchup against the Chiefs, but it's worth noting Perine caught six of seven targets for 49 yards in that win. K.C. gives up the third-most receiving yards to opposing running backs, 44.6 per game. Look for Perine to go Over 15.5 on Sunday.

Rookie Isiah Pacheco is fresh, and he showed his explosiveness the past two games, gaining nearly eight yards per carry. He averaged a solid 4.7 yards per carry in the Week 13 matchup in Cincinnati, finishing with 66 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. On Sunday he could see a similar, or even bigger workload given Patrick Mahomes' injured ankle. The Chiefs have used the rookie wisely. With a Super Bowl berth at stake, look for the exciting Pacheco to be heavily involved and clear 47.5 rushing yards.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging 28 receiving yards over his last four games, a span in which he's made just nine catches. He has not gotten more than a 9 percent target share in the last three contests, as Travis Kelce and Kadarius Toney draw most of the looks. Smith-Schuster doesn't get much separation anymore. With Patrick Mahomes likely to be mainly a pocket passer Sunday due to his ankle injury, Smith-Schuster won't have extra time to create separation. You can find this line at 46.5 receiving yards at multiple spots, but even at 45.5 (-119) I like it a lot.

If you like Cincinnati to cover, you better get it in now because this number is flying fast. I would have been on the Bengals anyway because they've covered in 22 of their last 26 games dating back to last season. Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow operates the game plan like a surgeon every time he puts on the uniform. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes' high-ankle sprain has me doubting the team's chances to move the ball in typical Chiefs fashion. Backup Chad Henne might be more effective. Take the Bengals to cover.

The health of Patrick Mahomes has had an impact on the spread and total for this game, but with Andy Reid saying the injury isn't as bad as one Mahomes played through in 2019, we have to expect he'll be in there. He may not have his entire bag of tricks at his disposal, but the Chiefs have scored 24 points every week since the weird Titans game where they dominated statistically otherwise. On the other side, the Bengals have scored 27 in each of their three wins over the Chiefs, and the Titans are the only team since Week 8 to hold them under 22 points. Even with Mahomes' health, these two offenses should put this one into the 50s.

The Bengals won't be lacking in confidence after beating the Chiefs three times in the last 13 months. The health of Patrick Mahomes has swung the line to Bengals being favored as everyone rushes to predict the home team loses. We'll see if the Bengals offensive line can hold up without the benefit of snow slowing down the pass rush, and what worked against Josh Allen (blitzing to kingdom come) isn't going to work against Mahomes, no matter his health. The Chiefs feel less dangerous than last year without Tyreek Hill, but Mahomes' season numbers were actually better. I'll take the home 'dog (5-2 ATS in this round since 2000) as a great value play at this number.

These teams know each other well, having played three times in the last 13 months. The Bengals made their RBs a key part of the passing attack in each game, with that position reaching at least 50 receiving yards. Mixon has finished just shy of this number in his last two playoff games but did top 30 receiving yards in seven of his previous eight appearances. I wouldn't be surprised to see his snap rate rise back to the 70% level of earlier in the season in what should be a competitive game with a week off for Cincinnati should they win. Against the team that allowed the most RB receptions in the regular season, that gives the Over here a great chance of hitting.

The Bengals have beaten the Chiefs three straight times, outscoring K.C. 47-20 in the second half and overtime. Lou Anarumo's halftime adjustments are a real factor. If Patrick Mahomes were fully healthy, Kansas City would be laying a field goal. But Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain in Saturday's win over Jacksonville. His ability to plant and throw, to scramble, to elude pressure -- all of that is up in the air. The Bengals have allowed 15.7 points per game over their last six. Joe Burrow recorded a 126.6 passer rating in the regular-season matchup with K.C., going 25 of 31 for 286 yards and two TDs and also rushing for 46 yards and a score. It was arguably his second-best game this season (his best came vs. Atlanta when he threw for 481 yards and accounted for four TDs). Look for the Bengals to win their 11th straight and return to the Super Bowl.

Winners of 10 straight and clicking on all cylinders against the Bills, the Joe Burrow-led Bengals get a lesser defensive opponent in Kansas City, and perhaps, a very hobbled Patrick Mahomes. If Mahomes is unable to extend plays with his signature maneuvering inside the pocket, then the Kansas City offense gets a big downgrade. Meanwhile, the Bengals have found ways to create success on the ground and through the air in spite of offensive line injuries. I love this price considering that the Mahomes injury could be a major issue. However, I think this is still a solid number even if Mahomes is relatively healthy.