Tom Brady didn't look comfortable all regular season as the Bucs limped into the playoffs below .500, but it's not the regular season anymore. I don't think Brady unretired to play the Saints in December; he came back for the playoffs. The Bucs are healthier than they've been all season, they match up well with a Cowboys team that they crushed in Week 1, and if there's anything Brady knows how to do it's get his team in the right mindset for the postseason. The Cowboys are 3-8 in the playoffs this century, their defense is slumping and Mike McCarthy is coaching. Take the guy who's 35-12 in the playoffs all-time to at least keep it close and grab the points.

The Bucs got a little healthier down the stretch on both sides of the ball, and their anemic offense looked a little better against meager competition down the stretch. The Cowboys memorably no-showed for their regular-season finale against Washington and surely anything resembling a repeat performance will result in an early playoff exit. Defense dominated Tampa Bay's 19-3 win in Week 1 between these clubs, and other defense-centered struggle should be in store Monday. Take the Under.

The Cowboys' loss at Washington in Week 18 has skewed the reality regarding the ceiling of these teams. The Buccaneers are tired, banged up and scored only 18 ppg this season while finishing 8-9 and an embarrassing 4-12-1 ATS. The Bucs went 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven, with the last two wins coming against opponents playing backup QBs. I like the Cowboys' pass rush to frustrate Tom Brady and their balanced offense to outscore the Bucs. Take the Cowboys to cover.

Now that this just got back to Bucs +3, we'll roll with Tom Brady, who is 7-0 all-time vs. Dallas and 4-0 ATS as a playoff dog since 2019. Since 2005, NFL playoff teams that are .500 or worse have gone 8-3 ATS and teams with losing records like the Bucs are 3-1 ATS. Brady also reportedly will see the season debut of Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen as he has been activated from injured reserve. Jensen had returned to practice Dec. 28 and had been moving around well. That's huge.

Both teams have had their fair share of issues offensively, and I don’t expect that to change this week. We know the Bucs like to move the ball with reliable short passes, which should assist in keeping the clock running. The Cowboys are also likely to dial up a more conservative game plan with the running and short passing games, as Dak Prescott has been highly inefficient and turnover-prone lately. The defenses are just good enough to keep these sputtering offenses in punt and field goal formation.

Lining up against the Patriots mystique and Tom Brady narrative have been two of my most profitable plays of the season, and I'm not stopping in the playoffs. While the line is basically right in this game, getting the better offensive team with the better playmakers and far more mobile quarterback at this price is a bargain. The Cowboys are 5-2 against fellow playoff opponents this year; the Buccaneers are 2-5 with one of those wins against Dallas in Week 1 when Prescott got injured. Dallas will have extra motivation both coming out of the embarrassment against Washington and with Prescott seeking to end his winless playoff mark. Tampa Bay has Brady, sure, but it doesn't even enter with a coaching advantage over Mike McCarthy. Expect a lot of pressure from Dan Quinn and not much time for Brady.

Big number for White who has taken more of a backseat to Leonard Fournette in recent weeks. The rookie RB has failed to eclipse this line in three consecutive appearances and is averaging only seven rushing attempts per game over that span. I also wonder how much the Bucs will trust White in the postseason as I could see his snaps getting reduced. Tampa also barely runs the football as their 22.7 rushing attempts per game is the lowest mark in the league. White will face a Dallas run defense that ranks fifth in rushing DVOA. All in all should be tough sledding for Tampa's run game. I'd play this prop down to 36.5.

The Buccaneers' starting offensive tackles, Tristan Wirfs and Donovan Smith, were both on the field in Week 18, the first time that's happened since late November. Tom Brady's comfort in the pocket -- and his passing numbers -- go up when he's playing behind both Wirfs and Smith. The Cowboys' pass defense has declined since they lost starting corner Anthony Brown a month ago. Go Over on Brady's passing yards.

Let's go to the team rankings. Dallas has the fourth highest points-per-game output; Tampa Bay is 25th. For points allowed, the Cowboys are fifth, the Bucs 13th, though separated by just a point. An overreaction to Dallas' dud of a season finale at Washington has depressed this line. Has the public forgotten the Bucs hold a losing record? QB Dak Prescott's inconsistency is disconcerting, but Dallas need not pile up points for a cover. And so what if coach Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat. If so, it has no impact on game preparation or play-calling.

The plus-3s in the market are juiced to -120 (like at Caesars) and some 2.5s are showing as well as money continues to trickle in on Tampa Bay. This pick isn't about how bad Dallas looked in Week 18; it's about how the Cowboys' pass defense has played since losing starting cornerback Anthony Brown just over a month ago. Tom Brady, Mike Evans and the Bucs' passing game turned a corner in the second half of the Week 17 win over Carolina, and that momentum continued into Week 18 -- the Bucs scored 17 first-half points before sitting their starters. On the other side, look for Dallas' problems in pass protection to be magnified in a hostile atmosphere. Take the points.

The Cowboys stumble into the playoffs with a blowout loss to the Commanders hung on their shoulders, and their defense hadn't been playing well prior to that game either. The Bucs finally put together a good offensive day in the division-clinching win over the Panthers in Week 17, and with the lowest sack rate allowed in the league, they could neutralize the Dallas pass rush to some extent and let their receivers take advantage of the Dallas secondary. Tampa Bay could have the matchup advantage anyway after dominating the Cowboys in Week 1 even prior to Dak Prescott's injury. With home-field advantage and the Cowboys struggling, I want the Bucs on the key number of 3.

I think the Buccaneers match up quite well against the Cowboys. Tampa Bay defeated a much healthier Dallas team in Week 1. The Cowboys have been outgained in three of their past four games. The Cowboys are 1-4 SU and ATS when playing on a grass field this season. Tampa Bay's offensive line is ranked No. 1 in QB sacks allowed. They should be able to run on Dallas from a spread formation as well. Take the three points before this line drops!