All week, the plan was to take the Giants at +3.5 or the Vikings at -2.5, and it's the Minnesota side that has dropped with nearly all sharps and casuals backing New York. There's good reason to do so; the Giants looked like the better team when they met on Dec. 24. The idea is that New York will knock Kirk Cousins off his game with the pass rush, but given Minnesota's rushing ability, I like Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to keep the defensive front at bay, opening up play action opportunities for Cousins to hook up with Justin Jefferson. Saquan Barkley will probably go off (take the over on his total rush+receiving yards), but if the Vikings can find a way to limit Daniel Jones through the air, they can walk away with this at home.

Here's a matchup of two teams that play more close games than anyone. The Giants and Vikings played a combined 23 games this season that were decided by one score, and it would be 24 if the game they played against each other counted twice (that one, of course, was decided by a field goal). I'll be shocked if this one isn't close, too. Both teams have famously been outscored by their opponents this season, but while the Vikings have a losing ATS record, the Giants have the best ATS mark in the league. Though N.Y. doesn't have as much talent overall, I trust Brian Daboll to at least keep things interesting. Grab the points.

Minnesota is terrible against the pass and James has suddenly become Daniel Jones' favorite target -- James leads the NFL in catch percentage (81.4%) by hauling in 57 of 70 targets. He has topped this receiving yardage in three of his past four, including eight catches for 90 yards in the first meeting vs. the Vikes. Minnesota cornerbacks have allowed the fifth-most receptions out of the slot (where James lines up) this season.

Although rematch games tend to be a lot tighter than the first meeting, these two teams both have explosive backs that are legit dual threats, capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. Also, the Giants will be facing a Vikings defense that can't stop giving up the big play. I can see this game being a facsimile of what we saw a few weeks ago, and one that will surely be another entertaining, back-and-forth affair. We know the Vikings can score 30 points, and we also know that the Giants average between 19-22 points per game.

Saquon Barkley IS the Giants offense, and a big reason why they were able to comeback in their first meeting was a combination of his ability on both ends of offense. This receiving prop number, for a back of the caliber of Saquon Barkley, is ridiculously low. This is legitimately a potential one catch cover for the stud running back. I think we may see him get closer to 50 yards receiving.

The Vikings went 13-4 this season, but I’ve never seen a winning team so disrespected regarding the way it did it. Most of their wins were close contests, but they looked really bad in the losses. The Giants have covered in each of their last four games, two of which were losses - including a 27-24 setback at Minnesota in Week 16. New York had 445 yards of offense in that one and QB Daniel Jones had one of his better passing days with over 300 yards. It’s the easy running of Jones coupled with the queasy moments from Vikings QB Kirk Cousins that has helped make my decision. Take the Giants to cover.

Since Dec. 9, Vikings wideout K.J. Osborn ranks seventh in the NFL with 388 receiving yards. We're getting value with this number of 36.5 because Osborn's only quiet game during this five-game tear came against the Giants (three catches, four targets, 17 yards). However, Giants No. 1 corner, Adoree Jackson -- who missed the last seven games with a sprained MCL -- will return Sunday and likely see a lot of Justin Jefferson. Thirty-two year-old Adam Thielen isn't the force he used to be. Go Over 36.5 receiving yards for Osborn at -101.

The Vikings give up the second-most targets, catches and receiving yards to slot receivers. Richie James exploited that for eight catches and 90 yards in the Giants' Week 16 loss in Minnesota. Over the season's final six games, James, a former special teams players, had 5-plus catches four times. He drew 41 targets (6.8 per game) in that span. Go Over 4.5 catches at -113.

Kirk Cousins threw 133 passes from Week 15 to 17, starting with the Colts game where the Vikings had to rally back from 33 points down. Thielen had just four targets in that game, catching three passes for 41 yards. The following two weeks, he caught just two of his nine combined targets for 22 yards. He's seen his production fall down the stretch as the team leans on Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and even K.J. Osborn more than the 32-year-old veteran in the passing game. Thielen is heavily juiced to catch three passes or fewer, and at his average of just over 10 yards per catch, that leaves him short of this number.

This game is a rematch of Week 16 where Kirk Cousins threw the ball 48 times, his third-highest total of the year, as Cook managed 64 yards on just 14 carries. That was the only game where the Giants didn't allow 100 yards rushing since their Week 9 bye, and with the second-worst yards per rush allowed on the season, that's where the Vikings figure to attack in this rematch. The Vikings will be without star right tackle Brian O'Neill moving forward, and committing to the ground game should help keep Kirk Cousins off the turf. I like Cook to top his per-game average of 69 yards in this matchup.

The way to attack the Vikings’ defense is through the air. During the regular season, they allowed the second-most passing yards per game in the league. Jones took advantage of their deficiencies in Week 16, completing 30 of 42 pass attempts for 334 yards. With the Giants likely needing to throw more than usual again to keep up with the Vikings’ potent offense, Jones could blow past this total.

Hodgins has emerged as one of the Giants top receiving options after being claimed off waivers from the Bills. He has received a total of 33 targets over his last five games, which helped him come away with at least four receptions in each of them. That included a matchup against the Vikings in Week 16 in which he caught eight of 12 targets. The Vikings allowed the most receptions to wide receivers in the league during the regular season, making the over the way to go here.

In the Giants' 27-24 loss at Minnesota in Week 16, New York didn't have top run stuffer Leonard Williams or No. 1 corner Adoree Jackson. Top pass rusher Azeez Ojulari left early with an injury. All three are expected to play Sunday. New York averaged 6.7 yards per play to Minnesota's 5.0. Daniel Jones threw for a season-high 334 yards. And now Brian Daboll has had two weeks to scheme for these same Vikings (New York rested starters and didn't gameplan for the Eagles in a meaningless Week 18 game). The Giants have covered four straight road games and should take this game to the wire, if not win outright. Back New York plus a field goal at -120.

Hockenson has made a big impact on the Vikings since being acquired by the team at the trade deadline. He has quickly become one of Kirk Cousin's favorite targets and has been the second most targeted pass catcher since landing in Minnesota. Hock has also caught at least five receptions in seven of ten games while averaging 6.0 receptions per game as a Viking. This is also a nice matchup against a Giants defense that has given up the seven most receptions to opposing Tight End's this season while ranking 31st in DVOA to the position. These teams met in week 16 where Hockenson had 13 receptions for 109 yards. I expect Hock to continue soaking up plenty of underneath targets and serving as Kirk Cousins security blanket.

Obviously don't play this at 3 regardless of your side -- I'll simply take Minnesota at home on the ML. The Vikings are 12-0 on the moneyline as a favorite this season. If this game kicked off three hours later (i.e. in prime time), I'd be worried about Kirk Cousins because we know his prime-time failures, but I truly struggle to find many spots where the Giants are better than the Vikes. Third-down conversions are always big but especially in the postseason. The Giants converted on just 33.6% of their third downs on the road this season, among the league's worst. At home, the Vikes converted 43.4%.

Much has been made of Minnesota's 11-0 straight-up record in one-score games. It overshadows the fact that of the Giants' nine victories, all but one were by a single score. Five of them ended with a margin of less than a touchdown. Besides, winning close is not necessarily a bad thing in the playoffs. The Vikings will feel confident in a tight-finish scenario. They bring more postseason experience than the Gothams -- who, by the way, closed the season in a 2-5-1 slump outright. The public has exercised skepticism for the Vikings all season, perhaps for good reason. But they are better than the Giants, however slightly, and a loud crowd indoors could spell the difference.

The Giants and Vikings will play a rematch of Week 16 where the game was even but Minnesota hit a 61-yard field goal to win at the end. The Giants are typically a run-oriented offense but had no problem exploiting Minnesota's defensive weakness through the air, and Daniel Jones has shown chemistry with his rebuilt WR corps down the stretch. The Giants defense is just 24th in yards per play but fifth on third down and in red zone, so winning situational football can help keep it close. The Giants also have the rest advantage after sitting all key starters last week and the coaching advantage too. I think that's enough to go into Minnesota and possibly win this time around.