Field conditions are just terrible in Santa Clara -- it will be the Mud Bowl with it pouring there all day and probably continuing. As it was, I expected the Niners to be rather conservative offensively with rookie Brock Purdy making his first playoff start but now he might not throw it even 20 times if the Niners can keep punishing Seattle on the ground, which seems likely. There's always the possibility of an injury to Purdy or him being pulled in the second half if the game is out of hand.

Despite Brock Purdy making this start as a rookie, Geno Smith will also be starting his first playoff game on the other side. Teams that are nearly double-digit favorites in the wild-card round have a strong history of covering, but beyond that, the 49ers match up exceedingly well with the Seahawks. San Francisco can run all over Seattle, and its top-ranked defense has only allowed one offensive touchdown in their two meetings this season; it came with 3:35 left in the fourth quarter at Seattle. The 49ers won by 20 at home earlier this season (before Christian McCaffrey arrived) and by eight a few weeks ago (with Deebo Samuel inactive). Personally locked this up at -9, but despite that line now being gone and unlikely to come back before kickoff, the 49ers are worthwhile under 10.

This is a big moment for 49ers quarterbacks Brock Purdy, perhaps too big with a big spread to match. But San Francisco didn’t lose any of his six games, and he threw 13 touchdowns against just three interceptions. Five of those six games went Over the total, and the 49ers covered in five of those games. Rookie QBs don’t have a great record in the playoffs, but they also didn’t have Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle to carry the load. San Francisco has a 10-game win streak and also has the No. 1 defense in the NFL. I like the 49ers to cover.

Seattle should do its part for an Under. The Seahawks managed 20 points in two meetings with the 49ers, and their offense has gone south lately. Over the last four outings, they tallied 62 points in regulation time. The bloom has fallen off the Geno Smith rose. Though Brock Purdy has excelled for San Fran, rookie QBs have a history of shakiness in their playoff debuts. Look for the Niners to go run-first, especially with rain in the forecast. Seattle coach Pete Carroll is a defensive guru who could concoct a game plan that will bedevil Purdy at times.

As good as Brock Purdy has been since taking over at quarterback, the 49ers are going to need to rely heavily on McCaffrey if they are going to reach the Super Bowl. He has been excellent since being acquired from the Panthers, including finishing out the season with at least 100 rushing yards in three of his final five games. That included him turning 26 carries into 108 yards against the Seahawks in Week 15. The Seahawks allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in the league during the regular season, so expect McCaffrey to have similar success in this rematch.

Dangerous to disagree with Larry, but I think Elijah Mitchell's presence will keep McCaffrey under this number -- plus the fact he will be used plenty as a receiver out of the backfield. Here are McCaffrey's past four rushing yardage totals when Mitchell was also playing: 45, 32, 39 and 38. There's also the possible blowout factor where the SF starters are pulled to stay healthy for the divisional round.

This number is rising for good reason. With rain and wind in the forecast, expect the 49ers to go run-heavier than normal versus a bad Seattle rush defense missing leading tackler Jordyn Brooks. Christian McCaffrey ran 26 times for 108 yards in the most recent matchup at Seattle, and he should see at least 15 carries again even with Elijah Mitchell back. Since their bye, the Seahawks are giving up 5.1 yards per carry. Brooks was lost to a torn ACL in Week 17, while standout safety Ryan Neal has missed three straight with a knee injury. McCaffrey has averaged 183 yards from scrimmage in three career games versus Seattle.

It's supposed to rain quite a bit in Santa Clara on Saturday and be fairly windy. That should mean a lot of running plays and a lot of running clock. I'm not sure Seattle tops 13 points against that San Francisco defense after totaling just 20 against it in the regular season. Can the Niners be held under 30? I think so.

We're getting a window of value on San Francisco with a drop from the opening number of -10/ Although there's always an argument for taking a big chunk of points in a playoff game, this is about a big of a mismatch as we'll ever see in the postseason. The Seahawks lost five of eight down the stretch, and two of their wins came against the struggling Rams. They needed help from the Lions to get a playoff spot and are going to need to play a great game and get more than their share of breaks to cover this. It's a tough ask from a Seattle that scored one offensive touchdown in two meetings with the 49ers, who have only gotten better since their last matchup.

If this got to 10.5, I was going Seattle but now that it's under double digits I'm on the scorching-hot Niners with Brock Purdy set to make playoff history as a seventh-round starting QB. Dude has been amazing, and I still trust him WAY more than Geno Smith against that top-rated San Francisco defense. Smith hasn't fared well when facing consistent pressure from a four-man rush, and the 49ers have that in spades led by lock Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa. Potentially very important to get this at 9.5 instead of 10 on San Francisco and not just because of that magic number. Why? Double-digit favorites in the NFL playoffs are 11-3 ATS since 2010. The return of Elijah Mitchell makes that 49ers rushing offense that much better and Seattle can't stop the run.

Conventional wisdom says it's tough to beat the same team three times in one season, but what it's not tough to do is cover as double-digits favorites in the wild-card round. There have been 11 such favorites, per Pro-Football-Reference, with the road teams 0-2 ATS and the home teams 9-0 ATS. Kyle Shanahan should be able to exploit Seattle's questionable run defense, and the 49ers defense looks ready for the postseason after bouncing back last week. The short-week game in Seattle was the only Brock Purdy appearance where the 49ers didn't score at least 33 points, and if they get into the 30s again, their defense will do enough to get the cover.

The 49ers dominated both meetings, winning 27-7 at home and 21-13 in Seattle in Brock Purdy's first road start. Purdy had a 117 rating in the visit to Seattle on a short week, a spot in which he didn't have Deebo Samuel. Now all of the 49ers' weapons are healthy. With Purdy at QB, the 49ers are averaging 33.5 points. Both teams like to run the ball but the 49ers allow 3.4 yards per carry compared to the Seahawks' 4.9. San Francisco has won its last five home games by a minimum of 13 points, covering each. Since Week 8, the 49ers lead the NFL in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. With the Seahawks on a 1-7 ATS skid and just happy to have made the playoffs, I'll lay the lumber.