A full strength Tyrese Haliburton would obviously help the desperate Pacers. But if he is ailing as he was in Game 5, they'd be better off letting him sit and having his teammates pick up the slack. They are capable of winning without him. Indiana's late-game collapse in Game 4 cost it a prime chance to take control of the series. Although the young Thunder could clinch the title tonight, it'd be surprising if the Pacers didn't at least fight until the final buzzer.

B365 @ -110. The massive news leading up to Game 6 is Tyrese Haliburton’s availability with a calf injury. While I expect him to suit up, it’s clear that he won’t be 100%. The Pacers will desperately need sources of offense, and I expect Bennedict Mathurin to see an increased role. Mathurin has cleared this line in three of five games this series as is, and he saw the second highest usage bump amongst the Pacers regulars without Haliburton on the court (+3.9%).

I picked OKC in 6 and here we are; Game 6 and OKC is too big a favorite in my eyes. SGA is getting the help he needed from Jalen Williams. If Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton isn’t healthy, they don’t have a chance. If this price is too much for your liking, throw it in a parlay.

Oklahoma City can close it out in Game 6 at Indiana, where the Thunder have covered three of the five games so far in the series and covered the two meetings in the regular season. The last two games have been won by Oklahoma City, barely covering Game 4, and it looks like OKC wants to close this thing out. I see the dynamic duo of the Thunder taking their game up a notch and beating Indiana rather easily. The series should actually be over already if Game 1 had gone differently. Oklahoma City to win.

We haven't seen a total this low in the Finals; we assume because of Tyrese Haliburton's status with his strained calf. Yet Haliburton might as well not have been on the court in Game 5 when he didn't make a field goal...but the scoreline reached 229 (120-109 OKC) and the first over in this series since Game 2. Note, games in this series have all been on an over pace before a few of them would inexplicably slow down (read: cold shooting) in the 4th Q. Now, OKC's Jalen Williams is the hottest scorer in this series with his 40 in Game 5, and three straight games scoring 25+. Indiana also has ample firepower aside from Haliburton, as demonstrated throughout the playoffs. Play Thunder-Pacers Over

Tyrese Haliburton (calf) is questionable for Game 6. I’d be surprised if he sits, but based on how he looked in Game 5, he could be limited. Haliburton missed nine games during the regular season and Bennedict Mathurin played in seven of those games. Of those seven games, Mathurin scored at least 20 points five times. While Mathurin only scored seven points with Haliburton ailing in Game 5, that total could have been higher if he didn’t shoot just 2-for-11 from the field. He shot 48.0% at home this season, so look for him to be more efficient in Game 6.

Jalen Williams dominated Game 5, scoring 40 points over 35 minutes. After getting off to a slow start in the series, he has scored at least 26 points in each of the last three games. He has been aggressive attacking the paint, which resulted in him attempting at least 11 free throws in each of those three games. During the regular season, Williams averaged 22.6 points and 33 minutes per game on the road. He has averaged 35 minutes in the Finals, so I like his chances of hitting this over for Game 6.

It was a "Butch van Breda Kolff" moment for Rick Carlisle in Game 5, when unlike 'ol Dutch in the '69 Finals, when he kept Wilt Chamberlain on the bench in the late going of Game 7 in favor of Mel Counts, Carlisle opted for a laboring Tyrese Haliburton in the 4th Q at the expense of backup, but better-performing, TJ McConnell. We'll see about the status of Haliburton (calf) tonight, but because of McConnell and others, Carlisle has a deep enough bench to compensate if needed. OKC can wrap up the title, though note it had failed to cover its first eight road games this postseason until a miracle sequence of events at the end of Game 4. Play Pacers

If Tyrese Haliburton plays 40+ minutes on Thursday for Indiana, this probably won't win. But if he's limited at all with the calf injury, much less somehow doesn't play, then TJ McConnell would easily be the No. 1 beneficiary. He played arguably his best game of the playoffs in Game 5 as well (22 PA). Our model has McConnell at 16.2 PA for what is likely Indiana's season finale.

We're looking to get the passive affects of 30+ minutes of Lu Dort. He consistently plays over 30 minutes vs the Pacers and this season when he plays more than 30 minutes the over is 32-8. The Thunder need his defense vs the Pacers which leads to his solid rebounding and assist numbers in these matchups. In his last 9 against the Pacers, he is also 7-2 to this number, and has hit it 3 of 5 games this series.

With Tyrese Haliburton’s status up in the air for game six, I’ll get out in front of a possible move on Pascal Siakam’s prop. Siakam has scored 20 or more points in three straight games, and is coming off a series best 28 point performance. Game four at home, he was on his way to another breakout game with 20 points through the first three quarters, before not getting the ball in the fourth. Indiana will lean on him and not make that mistake in game six.

We've all heard of riding the hot hand, however I subscribe to fading the hot hand which is exactly what we're doing with Jalen Williams who to his credit, is playing tremendous basketball. However, this combo line typically fluctuates between 30.5 and 32.5 so its certainly inflated. Williams has struggled with consistency throughout the postseason and he can still play well and stay under a line this high. I expect this to close at 33.5.

My favorite play here is alt line over 112.5 (-150). Maybe you don't need it, but I have been skewing that way in these markets all postseason with ample success. Both games in IND soared over this; Pacers play faster and shoot more at home and OKC can follow. Pure desperation from the Pacers should bring more early points. These games tend to settle down after the half. The Pacers averaging 62/first half at home and OKC's first half defensive rating on the road in the playoffs has been below average. OKC averages 59/first half on the road despite only making 3.5 threes. This number is right at the average of OKC on the road and IND at home, but this is no ordinary game.

Lou Dort is projected for over 14 PRA. Even though his season average is considerably lower on the road (13.6) than at home (16.4) he is still a solid 23-19, 54.8% over 12.5 PRA on the road (36-15, 70.6% at home). In his last 9 games vs the Pacers he is averaging 18.4 (7-2 over 12.5). His average is high because he consistently plays over 30 minutes vs the Pacers and this season when he plays >30 minutes the over 12.5 is 32-8. The Thunder needs his defense vs the Pacers which leads to his solid rebounding and assist numbers in these matchups. He is also shooting the three with confidence, going 14-of- 24 in the Finals.

Both teams are projected to come below their team total. OKC is projected for 112 (TT is 114.5) and the Pacers are projected for 108 (TT 109.5). The reason why OKC is coming a little short of expectations is their under 34% 3pt shooting. This season the Thunder have shot just 35% on the road (vs 38% at home) and this split has been in full force in the Finals with them shooting 39.8% from three at home vs just 34.2% in two games combined at Indiana. The Pacers are coming under their TT because of their struggles with turnovers vs the Thunder, Tyrese Haliburton's injury and likely shooting regression from Pascal Siakam, T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin who combined for 22/40 from the field.

The Pacers had their shot in Game 4. They will regret that for a long time. OKC getting that road win - and finally covering away from home too - gives me great confidence they can do it again now. OKC going back to its original starting lineup has balanced out their scoring and the Haliburton injury situation is a legit concern for me. Indy's bench can't keep playing Superman role.