The Thunder have been by far the better team in this series. A Game 1 Indiana miracle has it tied 1-1, but OKC is too dominant defensively and the shooting hasn't even come around yet. The Thunder have won two games in every series by at least 20 points. There is another blowout coming.

Caesar’s. Pascal Siakam has yet to clear this combined points and assists line this series, and is under in nine of his last fifteen playoff games. While much of the focus is on Tyrese Halliburton’s tough matchup, Siakam has drawn Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso as his individual defenders. Siakam is shooting a combined 3/13 in their coverage. The Thunder defense in general is predicated on keeping opponents scoring outside the paint, ranking number one in that metric in the regular season. Siakam just isn’t a volume jump shooter, and we’ve seen his field goal attempts crater in this series.

The Thunder are one of the best cover teams of all time, winning 81 games and covering 63 times, and doing so at home and on the road equally. They've already shown the Pacers are overmatched by winning and covering three of the four meetings this season. The Pacers Game 1 win was a one-time thing. In Game 2, the Thunder shot 49% from the field, 39% from three-point range, and scored 123 points. That was just an average Thunder game where they had all their parts working. They've been doing it all season. Thunder to cover.

Indiana stole Game 1 in OKC and now we have a series. OKC has been average on the road in the postseason (4-3 record) and Indiana has been an offensive juggernaut all postseason at home The “magic number” is 110 points. If the Pacers can get there, they are 13-0 in this postseason. They get there tonight and win straight up.

Chet Holmgren scored 15 points over 28 minutes in Game 2. It was encouraging to see him play 28 minutes, even with the Thunder resting their starters late in the fourth quarter. He only played 24 minutes in Game 1, which contributed to him scoring just six points. He has averaged 15.8 points per game during the playoffs and he averaged 17.0 points per game on the road during the regular season. I think the Pacers keep this game close at home, so Holmgren could approach 30 minutes. That would give him a favorable opportunity to reach this over.

We waited almost the entire 48 minutes for Game 2 to clear 228.5, but the scoreline did nudge over on Sunday. There's another gear we can see from Indiana, especially at home in the Fieldhouse, where the Pacers scored 127.5 in their last two as host against the Knicks in the East finals. The big guns for Indiana, especially Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, are capable of inflicting much more scoring damage than they did in Game 2. Note Indy scored 66 points after intermission in its Game 1 win and 56 in the 2nd half of a flat effort on Sunday, and the Pacers have scored 125 or more in three of their last four at home in the playoffs. Play Thunder-Pacers Over.

Trends-trends-trends...what to do? There's the Game 3 hex for the Pacers, who have lost and failed to cover all 3s in these playoffs. Then there's the Thunder's 0-7 spread mark as a visitor this postseason. For good measure, OKC is also 0-3 vs. the line in its Game 3s. The Pacers were understandably flat in Game 2, having already guaranteed a road split, and would expect the big guns (Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner) to step it up at home. Indy can make the Thunder play defense sideline-to-sideline, but can't abandon interior scoring as in Game 2. As OKC hasn't been the same team on the road in these playoffs, there's a case for the Pacers. Play Pacers.

Myles Turner scored 15 points in Game 1 and 16 points in Game 2 of this series. Turner averaged 16.3 points per game at home this season, compared to 14.8 points per game on the road. He has scored at least 15 points in six of eight home playoff games. Given how the Thunder haven’t been as impressive on the road during the playoffs, this has the potential to be a close game. With Turner likely to approach 30 minutes, I like his chances of scoring at least 14 points.

Lu Dort scored just three points in game two, with five fouls. Each postseason game which total four, in which Dort has had five or more fouls he has scored less then five points. Prior Dort had scored in double figures in eight straight games against the Indiana Pacers. This included a twenty two point outburst in the last regular season meeting on March 29th. Play Dort’s over as he keeps his fouls in check.

Lu Dort has gone Under this prop total in six of seven road playoff games. He also had dramatic home-road splits during the regular season, as he made 1.2 fewer 3-pointers per game away from OKC. From deep, Dort shot 9.4 percent worse on the road (35.2 compared to 44.6 at home). Dort's main job is defense. While his minutes are secure, I bet him to score eight or fewer points in Game 3 on Wednesday.

The Thunder have done a great job on Tyrese Haliburton this season dating to the regular season, but I expect TH to attempt more than the 13 shots he has in each of the first two games of the Finals -- and he did top this number (barely) in Game 2. He easily topped 16.5 points in each home game in the East Finals, although obviously OKC is a much better defensive team than New York is. Our model has Haliburton at 20.5 points Wednesday.

BetRivers has Tyrese Haliburton at 16.5 but most books are at 17.5. I like his over at both numbers for Game 3. The elite OKC defense has bothered Haliburton in the first two games, holding him to 31 points and forcing eight turnovers. An even bigger factor is Haliburton has yet to shoot a free throw in the series. I expect that to change at home. Haliburton is a money player and usually delivers when the Pacers need him. They need him on Tuesday night. Look for Haliburton to be lot more aggressive driving to the hoop in this game and put up 20+ points.

Game 2 went over the total with the Thunder winning 123-107, making it four out of the last five meetings going over the total. The Thunder have come in now winning and covering three of the last four meetings against the Pacers, and the Pacers win in Game 1 barely happened. Both teams consistently run and score quickly. The Pacers started slow in the first quarter and first half of both games, but came alive in the second half. Both teams will score plenty. I don't see how that changes in Indianapolis. Over the total.

Thunder games are averaging 113 per first half on the road in playoffs ... and Pacers are averaging 113 at home. Pacers play are frenetic pace at home, more than most, and they won't have as slow of the starts they did in OKC. The PG has to get it going, right? OKC allowing 59/first half on the road and IND won't be held below 50 in the first half again. I love this over 109.5 in alt markets just in case Halliburton is actually hurt and the scoring still slips some. Both these teams can score and score quickly. IND has a +16.9 net rating at home in first half in playoffs; can't forget how significant that's been this postseason.

We are projecting Tyrese Haliburton for 20.5 points. Haliburton is only 22-24 over this line on the road (just 14 and 17 in Games 1 and 2) but he is a very solid 26-19 at home with a 19.8 average. Haliburton has been passive offensively (except for the game winner) until he started letting the shots fly in the 2nd half of Game 2 when it was too late. The coaching staff will surely point out that he has ZERO FREE THROW ATTEMPTS in the Finals so far. There is nothing scarier for opponents at this point than seeing Haliburton get hot and it's clear that to beat OKC you need to get hot from 3pt range

The model leans slightly under for both teams vs their team totals resulting in a 60% chance of the under. We expect OKC, especially their bench who shot a combined 10-21 from 3pt range) to not be so sharp on the road. The Pacers are coming under their TT because they are projected for just 7 offensive rebounds, which was the same number they had in Game 2 when they scored just 107. Without a lot of second chance looks expect Indiana to score under their 111.5 odds implied total. Game 1 came in under and Game 2 was pacing strongly under for most of the game until both teams let up defensively when it was clearly out of hand.

The model leans Indiana to cover for two surprising reasons: Indiana is projected to shoot +2.5% better from 3pt range and commit slightly fewer turnovers than the Thunder. The Thunder only shot 35% from 3 on the road which was well under their home 38%. Indiana had a +3% 3pt differential at home (OKC just +1%) and Indiana shot 52% and 41% from 3pt range their last 2 games at home vs the Knicks. After the first half of Game 1 where Indiana turned it over 20 times the Pacers have actually committed fewer turnovers than the Thunder. Indiana has clearly done a better job, not only limiting their own turnovers, but forcing more from the Thunder than expected.

DraftKings. Even with the series shifting to Indiana, I’m a little surprised we’re getting the same Alex Caruso points line after his 20-point outburst. He’s now cleared this line in 12 of 15 playoff games when he’s played at least 20 minutes, and he’s coming off consecutive games of 27 minutes. Having averaged 9 points per 25 minutes in the regular season, and this being a fast paced matchup, I’ll gladly bet this line once again.

OKC is battle tested and after going the distance with the Nuggets I expect to see an A road game from them here. They have built up massive late leads in both games in this series and the Thunder can exhale a bit after getting their first finals win. Too much SGA and too many scoring options among the starters and on the bench. The Pacers' PG has been all out of sorts and was better on the road than at home for the postseason on the whole. OKC still hasn't played its best game.