The Pacers haven't had much success slowing down Brunson as it is, and now his primary defender, Aaron Nesmith, is playing on a hobbled ankle. The Knicks were way more desperate than Indiana in Game 3. Indiana isn't going to let off the gas in Game 4, and it will be largely up to Brunson to keep the Knicks attached.

On top of the fact that Indiana's top guys haven't shot as well at home, New York is learning quickly that playing Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson together is creating on offensive buffet for Indiana. Those two played fewer minutes together in Game 2 and the total went easily under. I would bet on even fewer minutes for that tandem in Game 3, as Tom Thibodeau has already switched up his starting lineup.

This is too many points to give to an Indiana team that has been one of the best in basketball since January 1. Stop thinking this is some kind of weird run that is going to end. The Pacers are at worst evenly matched with New York and probably a little better. I'd be tempted to take the money line, but I feel very good about six points.

Nikola Jokic leads all conference semifinal players with 14.7 rebounds per game. OKC cannot keep him off the glass, and given that Jokic will likely play even more minutes in Game 7, the over is definitely the play here.

Nikola Jokic played over 46 minutes in Denver's Game 7 loss to Minnesota last season. He likely goes well into the 40s again on Sunday, and given that Aaron Gordon is either out or severely diminished, Jokic will have to carry an even bigger load. No way OKC keeps him under 30.

The Thunder are the best team in the NBA and by far the best team in this series. Don't let Denver's Game 1 comeback divert your attention from what we saw in Game 2, when OKC blew the doors off. That's the real gap that exists between these teams. Too much OKC defense and depth, and not nearly a big enough spread here. Double-digit win for OKC.

The Warriors, and specifically Stephen Curry, are being strangled by the Houston defense. The only way to loosen things up is for Jimmy Butler to be aggressive downhill. When he starts finishing and drawing fouls, the perimeter pressure will have to relent some. Butler knows this. It's his time. Forget every game he's played for the Warriors to this point. This is the game they got him for.

The Warriors are favored by 3.5-4 depending on your book, and they can certainly cover that with Jimmy Butler back. But Houston is playing in must-win territory and Butler's return might sound better on paper than it looks on the court with that pelvic deep glute contusion. I'll take the safer play and bet a little more to not have to cover.

Moses Moody made three of six 3-pointers in Game 2 and Chase Center crowd will fuel him further. I continue to ride the Warriors' peripheral players getting open looks as Houston is selling out so hard on Stephen Curry.

The Nuggets are doing a pretty good job of running Norman Powell off the 3-point line, but it can't last forever with the way they are having to bend their defense to Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. Powell gets loose in Game 3 after a monster shot at the end of Game 2 reversed the vibes on what was tracking as a tough outing for him.

The Rockets need somebody to step up alongside Alperen Sengun to provide some offense, and this is a relatively low number for a guy who put up 19 shots in Game 1. Do you really see VanVleet missing 15 shots again? I'm betting on the big-game nerve of VanVleet on a young team in need of some offensive confidence.

Stephen Curry had three assists in Game 1 vs. Houston and that's because the Rockets sent, and will continue to send, two defenders at him. Typically, that means an outlet pass from Curry to get out of the trap and then another pass from whoever receives Curry's pass to the shooter or cutter with a 4-on-3 advantage. Curry, in other words, is the one who creates the leverage, but he's not the one who gets credited with the assist. Plus, six assists is a big number in what figures to be a low-scoring game.

Gary Payton II is the natural outlet on so many of Golden State's 4-on-3 advantages after Stephen Curry draws two on the ball. He is a better shooter than he reputation, or frankly numbers, suggest, and he shoots it with confidence. He'll make at least one, especially with the possibility of Brandin Podziemski being out and Payton getting more minutes. But even if Podz plays, I like the over here for Payton.

I think Houston is going to make this a long series and they may very well win Game 2. But this is too many points in a coin-flip game in favor of the team with the two best players on the floor. Don't overthink this.

Norman Powell averaged 3.0 3-pointers per game this season on fewer than 33 minutes a night. He played 37 in Game 1 and will likely be near 40 again in Game 2 as the Clippers are in basically a must-win situation. Combine more minutes with the high pace the Nuggets play at, meaning more possessions, and Powell should get at least an extra attempt or two above his normal volume. That's a good bet to take for a 42% 3-point shooter.