We've played and won Cade Cunningham's under 27.5 prop in all four games this series. In eight games vs. the Cavs this season, he has yet to hit 28 points, averaging 20.6 per game vs. Cleveland. The books have dropped the line to 26.5, but we still like it. Yes, he's scored exactly 27 twice this season, but that's it. 27 in one game earlier this season, and 27 in Game 3. The Cavs have held him to 36.9% shooting and 30.0% from beyond the arc. He’s averaging 23.5 PPG in the 4 games, a good 3 points below tonight's prop.

The Thunder and Lakers have played seven times this season, including the postseason. The Thunder have won all seven, covered in all seven, and have won by an average of 25.1 points per game. In six of the seven games, OKC has scored 119 or more points. The one they didn't hit over 113.5 was Game 1 vs. the Lakers (scored 108), after having 8 days off.

The Cavaliers are one of the few teams to control Cade Cunningham this season. It's never easy fading the Pistons' star, who leads all NBA players this postseason at 30.2 PPG. But seven of those 10 games were vs. Orlando. In 7 games vs. Cleveland this season, including the 3 games in this series, Cunningham has yet to go over 27.5, averaging "only" 20.9 PPG. The Cavs have held him to 36.1% shooting and 28.6% from beyond the arc. He’s averaging 25 PPG in the 3 games, but none have gone over 27.5.

We are going to continue riding Karl-Anthony Towns' assist prop as he is hitting it even in games in which he plays limited minutes due to foul trouble. KAT has 46 assists over the last six games, an average of 7.7 per game. He has 20 in 3 games in this series, not playing more than 27 minutes in any of the games, due to one blowout and two games with foul issues. Dating back to April 1 (13 games), he is averaging 6.3 a game, hitting 5+ in 9 of the 13 games.

The Cavaliers are one of the few teams to control Cade Cunningham this season. It's never easy fading the Pistons' star, who leads all NBA players this postseason at 30.6 PPG. But seven of those nine games were vs. Orlando. In games vs. Cleveland this season, including Games 1 and 2, Cunningham has yet to go over 27.5, averaging "only" 20.3 PPG. The Cavs have held him to 35.8% shooting and 27.6% from beyond the arc. He had 25 points in Game 2, with 20 coming after half.

With Minnesota big man Rudy Gobert guarding Spurs C Victory Wembanyama up top, the floor has opened for Julius Randle to get more boards. In game 1, he flew over his total with 10 rebounds, matching Gobert. In game 2, he had 5 rebounds in just 27 minutes of action due to the blowout. There should also be more boards to go around, unless the Spurs hit 50% of their shots again. Randle had 7+ rebounds in four of the six games in the first round vs. Denver.

Karl-Anthony Towns has 6+ assists in his last five postseason games, averaging 7.8 assists per game. He got 6 assists in Game 1, playing only 20 minutes in the blowout, and 7 in Game 2, hitting his prop line (5.5) in the first 14 minutes of game action. Dating back to April 1, KAT is averaging 6.3 a game over 12 games, with over 7 assist chances a night. He's hit 5+ in 8 of the 12 games.

In the last four playoff games, the Lakers have scored 96, 93, 98, and 90 points. During the seven postseason games, the Lakers' pace of play at 92.55 is the second-slowest of all playoff teams. Versus the Thunder this year, L.A. has 92, 110, 96, 87, and 90 points, with the last 3 coming in April or Tuesday's Game 1. The Lakers know the best way to slow down the Thunder is to limit the possessions. They had 53 points at halftime of Game 1, and still ended with only 90.

Not easy fading Cade Cunningham, who leads all NBA players this postseason at 31.3 PPG. But most of that was vs. Orlando. In five games vs. Cleveland this season, including Game 1 on Tuesday, Cunningham has yet to go over 27.5, averaging "only" 19.4 PPG. The Cavs have held him to 33.7% shooting and 21.7% from beyond the arc. He had 23 points in 42 min of Game 1.

Over his last four playoff games, Spurs' Dylan Harper is averaging 27.5 minutes off the bench. He's hit 10+ points in four of his last five games and in 15 of his last 18 games, seeing extended minutes. In Game 1, he had 18 points on 13 FGA and is averaging 10 attempts a game over his last four games.

Historically, this is a good bounce-back spot. Dating back to post Covid in 2021, home favorites who lose Game 1 are 19-3 in the first quarter of Game 2. Against the spread, the number is 14-8 in favor of the bounce-back spot.

Yes, the line moved to 4.5 from the 3.5 it's been all postseason. We still like it at plus money, as Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 6.0 assists a game in the seven postseason games. He had 6 vs. the 76ers in Game 1 in only 20 minutes of action due to the blowout. Dating back to April 1, KAT is averaging 5.6 assists on 6.5 assist chances a game. The +113 price implies 47% chance of hitting, when he's gone over 4.5 in 7 of 11 games in this window (63.6%). Since the Knicks caught fire and started dominating (last 4 games), KAT has 32 assists.

De’Aaron Fox averaged 6.8 assists per game in the five-game series vs. Portland, hitting over 5.5 assists in four of the five games. This came on 10.8 assist chances per game in the series, the 14th-highest average of the first round. He also hit this in two of the final three games of the regular season, with the one he missed in the meaningless finale. Fox also averaged 34.8 minutes per game in the series, playing at least 33 minutes in all five games. The Wolves are not as good at defending the guards as Portland was during the season, so this might be a better matchup.

There was a definite difference in the 76ers' play once Embiid returned for Game 4. He averaged 28 PPG in the four games vs. Boston. While the Knicks' defense excelled overall this season (7th in rating, 5th in scoring), they were only 21st against opposing centers this season, allowing 22.7 PPG. In two games vs. the Knicks this season, Embiid averaged 32 PPG and 10.5 rebounds per game. Not apples to apples, but he scored 33 PPG vs. the Knicks in the first round in 2024, hitting over 26.5 in five of the six games.

We are going to keep taking Karl-Anthony Towns over 3.5 assists until the line moves, which, by the looks of the juice tonight, might be very soon. In addition to averaging 18.7 PPG and 11.3 rebounds in the 6 games vs. the Hawks, KAT became a playmaker, averaging 6.0 assists over the six games. He's had 4+ assists in five of the six games, with 26 combined in Games 4, 5, and 6. He hit this prop in the first 6 minutes of Game 6’s blowout. It's not just in the Hawks series. He averaged 6.5 assists in the final four games of the regular season. He's had 8.1 chances per game dating back to April 1.