We've played and won Cade Cunningham's under 27.5 prop in all four games this series. In eight games vs. the Cavs this season, he has yet to hit 28 points, averaging 20.6 per game vs. Cleveland. The books have dropped the line to 26.5, but we still like it. Yes, he's scored exactly 27 twice this season, but that's it. 27 in one game earlier this season, and 27 in Game 3. The Cavs have held him to 36.9% shooting and 30.0% from beyond the arc. He’s averaging 23.5 PPG in the 4 games, a good 3 points below tonight's prop.
While I lean toward the Pistons winning Game 5, I'm skeptical Jalen Duren will suddenly snap out of his funk while facing the duo of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. With Paul Reed playing well off the bench, we could see Duren's minutes decrease a little more. They've gone from 35 to 33 to 29 to 27 in this series. Duren's mandate from JB Bickerstaff is clear: rebound, defend and run the floor. Look for Duren to be more of a contributor but stay Under this scoring total for the 11th time in 12 playoff games.
Dennis Schroder recorded zero assists in Game 4. But his minutes remained consistent at 20 -- he's averaging 19.5 this series. The Cavs didn't need his playmaking Monday because Donovan Mitchell took over with 43 points. That's unlikely to happen in Detroit on Wednesday. In the first two games in Detroit, Schroder posted three and five assists. And in 30 games with the Cavs during the regular season, Schroder averaged 4.3 assists in 21.4 minutes per game.
Cavaliers guard James Harden totaled 15 combined rebounds and assists in Game 1. Since then, his totals have been 9, 9 and 11, the latter of which was with zero boards. The Pistons ranked No. 1 in fewest assists allowed to opposing point guards, so expect The Beard’s assist numbers to dip. His rebounding totals have dipped each of the four games.
FanDuel. Max Strus is averaging 5.1 rebounds per 25 minutes in his combined regular and postseason stats. He’s emerged as the Cavs top option off the bench, regularly closing games, and averaging 27 minutes this series. Clearing this line in eight of his last nine games, I like Strus to continue on that path tonight. The Cavs big man duo of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are only averaging a combined 11.3 rebounds per game this series - their struggles have forced Cleveland’ wings to crash the boards more frequently.
Daniss Jenkins has averaged 24 minutes off the bench in this series. In all four games, he recorded at least three assists. Going back even further, he has posted at least three assists in six straight games. During the regular season, he averaged 4.6 assists across 23 minutes a night at home. With the expectation that he will fill a similar role in Game 5, the over is the way to go here.
The home team has won all four games of this series. The Pistons took care of business during the first two games in Detroit, winning both by 10 points. They have won five straight home games, and each victory came by at least seven points. The Cavaliers are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs, so I’ll take the Pistons to cover this number with the series shifting back to Detroit.
We’ve unsuccessfully faded Harris twice in this series but I am not afraid to go right back to the proverbial well again. While Harris has been a reliable secondary scorer, these numbers are not sustainable and he is a regression candidate. I prefer to attack his PRA line due to his RA numbers being inflated as well.
DraftKings. I’ve written a lot about Evan Mobley’s role in this series, and why I see value over 3.5 assists at plus money. Rather than repeating myself, I will offer this stat: Mobley has at least 4 assists in 35/51 games (68%) when he passes the ball at least 40 times when playing alongside Donovan Mitchell. His low this playoffs for passes made is 44 (against the Raptors) and 49 in this series (average of 57). The role as a connector is corroborated, and I don’t see that stopping in Game 5. Passes to assists is an imperfect ratio, but there is some correlation. My math keeps saying this should be priced around -120, so I’ll gladly continue to ride the over at plus money.
Jenkins had 21 points (6-11 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 6-6 FT), six rebounds and two steals in 42 minutes before fouling out of Thursday's 144-140 double-overtime victory over Washington.
Thompson contributed 17 points (8-15 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 1-2 FT), 11 rebounds, 11 assists, three blocks and three steals in 43 minutes during Thursday's 144-140 double-overtime victory over the Wizards.
Reed had 13 points (5-9 FG, 0-1 3Pt, 3-6 FT), 11 rebounds and three assists in 38 minutes during Thursday's 144-140 double-overtime win over the Wizards.
Cunningham contributed 52 points (16-25 FG, 3-5 3Pt, 17-18 FT), 11 assists, five rebounds, one block and one steal across 48 minutes in Thursday's 144-140 double-overtime win over Washington.
Mobley (toe) is out for Friday's game against the Heat.
Tyson finished Wednesday's 115-107 win over the Knicks with three points (1-5 FG, 1-5 3Pt), one assist and one block over 23 minutes.
Allen notched 11 points (4-7 FG, 3-3 FT), 14 rebounds, three assists, one steal and one block over 32 minutes in Wednesday's 115-107 win over the Knicks.
Proctor provided 15 points (6-12 FG, 3-8 3Pt), three rebounds and one assist over 23 minutes in Wednesday's 115-107 win over the Knicks.
Watson supplied seven points (2-12 FG, 2-5 3Pt, 1-2 FT), five rebounds, four assists and four blocks over 30 minutes in Wednesday's 115-107 win over the Knicks.
Harden produced 32 points (9-14 FG, 5-7 3Pt, 9-11 FT), two rebounds, four assists and two steals over 33 minutes in Wednesday's 115-107 win over the Knicks.
