FanDuel. Max Strus is averaging 5.1 rebounds per 25 minutes in his combined regular and postseason stats. He’s emerged as the Cavs top option off the bench, regularly closing games, and averaging 27 minutes this series. Clearing this line in eight of his last nine games, I like Strus to continue on that path tonight. The Cavs big man duo of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are only averaging a combined 11.3 rebounds per game this series - their struggles have forced Cleveland’ wings to crash the boards more frequently.
DraftKings. I’ve written a lot about Evan Mobley’s role in this series, and why I see value over 3.5 assists at plus money. Rather than repeating myself, I will offer this stat: Mobley has at least 4 assists in 35/51 games (68%) when he passes the ball at least 40 times when playing alongside Donovan Mitchell. His low this playoffs for passes made is 44 (against the Raptors) and 49 in this series (average of 57). The role as a connector is corroborated, and I don’t see that stopping in Game 5. Passes to assists is an imperfect ratio, but there is some correlation. My math keeps saying this should be priced around -120, so I’ll gladly continue to ride the over at plus money.
FanDuel (-122). With the news that De’Aaron Fox (questionable) was spotted at shoot-around, I’ll buy low on Dylan Harper’s combined line tonight. Harper has cleared this number in three of four games, and is coming off a resounding 27-point, 7-rebound effort in game 4 (albeit mostly without Victor Wembanyama). This is a favorable matchup for Harper as the Wolves defense is predicated on making ball-handlers beat them one-on-one. Between Fox’s ankle, Stephon Castle’s propensity for fouling, and Mitch Johnson showing at least a willingness to play all three guards together in small spurts - there is enough upside for Harper on this line tonight. Playable to 15.5.
DraftKings. Julius Randle continues to struggle to produce in these playoffs, especially with Anthony Edwards looking healthier by the game. Randle is under this line in six of eight games with Edwards in this playoffs, including 3/4 against the Spurs. San Antonio poses a tough matchup for Randle as they’re excellent at preventing action in the paint. in Game 4, we saw Randle shoot well from the outside and rebound above expectation in a game where Victor Wembanyama was ejected in the second quarter, and he still remained under this total. Now in an uncomfortable road enviroment, I have Randle projected closer to 24 PRA - I’d bet this down to 26.5 PRA.
FanDuel. Running it back with Ajay Mitchell. The breakout star for the Thunder has assumed the Jalen Williams role, complementing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the wing as a playmaker and scorer. Mitchell is now over this line in four of five games since Williams went down (with one miss against the Suns in a 5/20 shooting performance), with a usage rate of at least 25% in each game. Against a Lakers team that lacks a defensive presence on the perimeter, look for Mitchell to continue to thrive in Game 4.
FanDuel. Donovan Mitchell has come alive these past two games, recording 37 and 45 points plus rebounds. After a pedestrian Raptors series, Spida seems to have kicked it into a higher gear against a Pistons defense he found success against in the regular season (36, 36 and 27 points plus rebounds). Historically a very strong playoff performer at home, and coming off two straight games with 24+ FGA, 8+ 3PA, 8+ FTA, 6+ rebounds, with 34%+ usage - I’m expecting another dominant performance from Mitchell tonight. Very playable at 31.5.
FanDuel. Duncan Robinson has recorded at least 21 combined points, rebounds plus assists over the three games this series. The more free-flowing nature of this matchup against the Cavs has suited the sharpshooter better than the defensive battle against the Magic. During the regular season and in the playoffs, the Cavs have allowed more catch and shoot opportunities in an effort to stop ball-handlers - something we’ve seen this series with Cade Cunningham. And I do see Robinson’s secondary stats lines being set too low - he’s a capable rebounder, and has shown this series he can distribute in the instances where Cleveland does close out on him behind the arc.
Caesar’s. Another bet I’m going to repeat for Game 4 is Evan Mobley’s assists. He’s now reached the four-assist mark in each game this series, and in all five games against Detroit this season when playing alongside Donovan Mitchell. In this matchup, he’s seen his total passes and potential assists increase, as Detroit does a solid job at defending him one-one-one. Serving as a connector from the high post, Mobley has acted as a secondary distributor to the low block, or out to the wing for spot-up/baseline cut opportunities.
FanDuel. Victor Wembanyama has exactly 15 rebounds in each game this series, averaging 21.7 rebound chances per contest. It’s a great matchup for the Frenchman, as he’s tasked guarding his countryman, Rudy Gobert, who does not pose much of an offensive threat. Free to roam around the bucket and crash, Wemby has thrived cleaning this glass this series. I don’t see that changing in Game 4.
B365/MGM. With Anthony Edwards re-entering the starting lineup, and looking healthier each game, this reads as a good spot to fade Julius Randle. The matchup doesn’t bode well as for Randle, who thrives when he can get to the basket - a very hard task against the Spurs. And the typical playoff minutes bump is not guaranteed for Randle, as the Naz Reid-Rudy Gobert pairing has proved to be the better front court matchup in this series. I’d take this down to under 27.5, as his usage (24% in Game 2, 21% in Game 3, is trending in the wrong direction).
DraftKings. Walking this line up a bit, but for good reason - Mikal Bridges looks like himself, and has been thrust into a role where his touches and shot attempts are up significantly for the Knicks. With New York leading 3-0, I doubt they have OG Anunoby play, and Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled to stay on the floor due to foul trouble. Bridges has served as the scoring complement to Jalen Brunson, the latter of whom will undoubtedly be the focal point of the Sixers defensive adjustments in Game 4. I have Bridges closer to 17 points in this one, so I’m very ok playing this line at over 15.5 for a full unit.
DraftKings. Without Jalen Williams available, Ajay Mitchell has seamlessly filled the void for the Thunder on the perimeter as the complementary playmaker to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The second-year pro has cleared this line in three of four games without Williams in these playoffs, only missing in Game 3 against the Suns due to a 5/20 shooting performance. But the touches, shot volume and usage are all there - the latter has been at 25% or better in each of the last four games. The Lakers lack perimeter defenders in general, and Mitchell has taken advantage of the soft coverages thrown his way.
DraftKings. In a very similar way we saw last series with Dillon Brooks, the Suns are very OK with Marcus Smart in a high usage role - in fact, their coverages are almost designed for it. The Thunder’s defense is predicated on stopping Austin Reaves and LeBron James pick-and-roll action, forcing them to kick to secondary playmakers, in this case Smart. The veteran guard is not shy with the ball, and has put up 28 shots and accrued 16 potential assists in two games, each with a 23%+ usage rate. He’s also needed on the floor to check Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensively. So while it might not be pretty, nor efficient, I do expect Smart to get enough volume tonight.
Caesar’s. There’s a lot to be said around James Harden’s offensive performances in these playoffs, but one aspect that has held true of late is his rebounding. Harden now has at least six boards in each of his last five games, and has cleared this line now in 4/5 games against Detroit (including 3/3 as a Cavalier). The Cavs’ defensive objective is to keep him away from the primary action, which leaves him free to crash the boards.
DraftKings. At these odds, this is worth a bet. Evan Mobley has 9 assists this series, and 4+ in 5/6 games against the Pistons this season. In the four games with Donovan Mitchell, he’s cleared this line, while averaging 7.5 potential assists and 50 passes per game, both modest increases from his regular averages. Schematically, it makes sense - the Pistons typically defend Mobley with Jalen Duren or Isaiah Stewart, leaving the paint vulnerable when he catches the ball at the high post. Rather than attacking against solid defenders, Mobley acts as a connector to cutters or spot up shooters.