Jaden McDaniels has five-plus boards in three of the four games so far this series, and eight-plus rebounds in four of the seven games last series. He’s leaning into his defense and rebounding while still scoring in the teens. With teammates Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert guarding posts with perimeter shooting, McDaniels is just as likely to be down low cleaning the glass as anyone.

With De'Aaron Fox a gametime decision and Dylan Harper downgraded to questionable, Stephon Castle should be looking at massive usage in Game 5. He has scored 20-plus points in two of the past three games. In the two San Antonio home games, Castle got to the foul line 17 times combined. Look for him to score 18 or more Tuesday.

Naz Reid has played 30-plus minutes in three of four games this series, the exception coming when Minnesota got blown out early in Game 2. Regardless, he has seven-plus rebounds in every game. After taking a vicious elbow to the neck from Victor Wembanyama, Reid will show his toughness in Game 5 and continue to play big minutes while making an impact on the glass.

FanDuel (-122). With the news that De’Aaron Fox (questionable) was spotted at shoot-around, I’ll buy low on Dylan Harper’s combined line tonight. Harper has cleared this number in three of four games, and is coming off a resounding 27-point, 7-rebound effort in game 4 (albeit mostly without Victor Wembanyama). This is a favorable matchup for Harper as the Wolves defense is predicated on making ball-handlers beat them one-on-one. Between Fox’s ankle, Stephon Castle’s propensity for fouling, and Mitch Johnson showing at least a willingness to play all three guards together in small spurts - there is enough upside for Harper on this line tonight. Playable to 15.5.

The Spurs shot better (48%) than the Timberwolves in Game 4, had fewer turnovers, and also had an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter, but Minnesota won 114-109. Victor Wembanyama was called for a Flagrant 2 technical foul in the second quarter and finished the game with 4 points. Minnesota's frenzied swarming defense created the situation that Wembanyama fell for. That's what this Timberwolves team does, and they've been doing it for quite a while against the Spurs, dating back to 2024. Minnesota won five straight games until the Spurs won in January, and now they're tied 2-2 in the second round. The Spurs might play with the same intensity as Game 2, but I think Minnesota plays a tight game like Game 4. Timberwolves.

De’Aaron Fox (ankle) is questionable for Game 5. If he doesn’t play, then Dylan Harper would be in line for a much larger role. However, even if Fox takes the floor, I like this over for Harper. He is averaging 13.8 points in the playoffs and has scored at least 11 points in three of the four games against the Timberwolves. Also working in his favor is that this game will be played at home, where he shot 39.0% from behind the arc during the regular season.

This is a significantly discounted combination line for Julius Randle who has been mostly a non factor throughout this series. With that being said, this feels much closer to his floor considering he’s averaging 23 PRA in this series coupled with dismal shooting splits of 37%/27%. Minnesota is going to need Randle to step up tonight in a pivotal Game 5.

DraftKings. Julius Randle continues to struggle to produce in these playoffs, especially with Anthony Edwards looking healthier by the game. Randle is under this line in six of eight games with Edwards in this playoffs, including 3/4 against the Spurs. San Antonio poses a tough matchup for Randle as they’re excellent at preventing action in the paint. in Game 4, we saw Randle shoot well from the outside and rebound above expectation in a game where Victor Wembanyama was ejected in the second quarter, and he still remained under this total. Now in an uncomfortable road enviroment, I have Randle projected closer to 24 PRA - I’d bet this down to 26.5 PRA.

With Victor Wembanyama back in the lineup and suspension concerns behind him, the Spurs' offensive chemistry appears likely to bounce back. Notably, after shooting 25% or worse from three-point range, San Antonio has consistently rebounded, averaging 119.8 points in its next outing. The Spurs’ role players, as is common across the league, tend to shoot more efficiently at home. As the series progresses, Minnesota’s tight eight-man rotation could face defensive fatigue, especially with Anthony Edwards and Jayden McDaniels logging 40 minutes in consecutive games. According to my model, San Antonio is projected to score between 117 and 118 points, given that postseason games are slightly lower-scoring.