Keon Coleman is making big plays this year. ...

We know through four games that the Lions' defense and secondary are really bad and give up a lot of points. This will keep Jared Goff throwing, as the Lions are looking for a much-needed bounceback win. Goff gets a great matchup against the Cardinals that give up the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL (9.1 yards/attempt). The Cardinals defense ranks 29th in overall pressure rate this season. And that is a dream situation for Goff, who carves up defenses from a clean pocket and not pressured. Since the Cardinals will likely be able to push back, I don't mind going to 300+ passing yards for plus money for Goff. So even though this line is high, I like Goff to go over.

As we've seen through the first four weeks of the season, the Lions' secondary is a dream matchup for wide receivers. The Lions have given up the 3rd most yards to the receiver position through four weeks (829 yards). Wilson has a 29% target share and a 44% air yards share so far. So the matchup and underlying usage are all there for Wilson to exceed this line.

Michael Pittman Jr. is out. And Roman Wilson has been impressive to open the season. He's had six targets in each game this season and has gone well over this line the last two weeks (60 and 74 yards, respectively). The matchup against the Colts is good for slot receivers, where Wilson should run most of his routes. The Colts defense runs a high rate of man coverage, and Wilson leads the offense in receiving yards against man coverage. I'm laddering Wilson up to 60+ receiving for plus money.

Malik Nabers found the endzone for the first time this season in Week 4. And he's set up in a great position to go back-to-back games with a touchdown. The Washington secondary is still very weak. They are tied for the 2nd most touchdowns to wide receivers through four weeks (6 TDs to wide receivers). This price is due to the downgrade of quarterback from Jaxson Dart to Jameis Winston, but it's a great price for an elite receiver vs. a bad secondary.

The Bears' offense has been extremely run-heavy to start this season. They lead the league, averaging 35 rushing attempts per game through the first four games. With RB Kyle Monagai ruled out with an injury, D'Andre Swift will carry the load for the Chicago backfield. The matchup is good too vs. the Packers, so you could approach his rushing line as well. I like even money for Swift to get 20 or more carries as the Bears' bell-cow back on Sunday.

Bijan Robinson has had a long rest after a massive game on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. And now he gets another great matchup on Monday night against the Saints. Nearly 60% of Robinson's rushes are outside zone runs. Per Sharp Football, against outside zone runs, the Saints have allowed 5 yards per carry and are last in success rate against outside zone runs. Robinson has cleared this longest rush prop in two of three games to start the season. Another explosive running back, Jahmyr Gibbs, cleared this longest rush prop against the Saints in Week 1. Longest rush is always a fun sweat, and one that I believe we'll get home Monday night.

Do you remember what the Jets tight ends did to the Lions in Week 3? Well, it's a pattern so far this season and the Lions are a tight end funnel. Juwan Johnson, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Kenyon Sadiq, and Jeremy Rucket all have touchdowns from the tight end position through three weeks against the Lions. I'm excited to get this price for Darren Waller to score, who already has two touchdowns (Week 2 vs Falcons) this season.

Everything is set up nicely for Joe Burrow on Sunday. A high team total, a great matchup, and a high likelihood that this will be a back-and-forth scoring affair against the Jaguars. Similar to last week, when the Bengals scored 27 points and went over this prop, I think Burrow will be in a very similar game script Sunday. The Jaguars are a true pass-funnel defense, and the Bengals are a very high pass-rate offense. This all sets up for Burrow to go over his line, and I'll be laddering this to 300+ passing yards for plus money.

The Lions and Bengals have been gifts thus far to the entire tight end position to open the season. The Bengals have given up 299 yards to tight ends in three games. That's NOT a misprint. Crazy, right? Even though Brenton Strange has started the season the season slow, the usage is there. He's run 76% of the routes and has a 14% target share so far this season. In this matchup, look for him to be targeted more. I'll be laddering this to 50+ receiving yards for plus money.

The most important thing for Cam Skattebo right now is that his usage is trending up. Devin Singletary was a healthy scratch last week, so the backfield is essentially him and Najee Harris. Skattebo's receiving usage has also gone up each week, as he ran a route 65% of the time and was targeted 19% in Week 3. The Cardinals have given up the 12th most yards to running backs in the first three weeks. I like approaching the combo line to protect for either game script, and just count on him being heavily involved.

Daniel Jones has had a slow start to the season. But he did go above this passing line against the Texans' defense in Week 3. Now Daniel Jones gets a true gift in London...the Washington pass defense. Washington has become quite a pass funnel this season. They have given up the 3rd most passing yards to quarterbacks through the first three weeks. Look for Jones to sail past this line on Sunday morning.

Do you remember the Black Friday game last year? The Bears ran 40 times against the Eagles and the running backs racked up 255 rushing yards. I'm not expecting that outcome necessarily on Monday Night. But with the Bears' QB situation murky, I do expect them to lean on the running game. RB Kyle Monagai is expected to play. But D'Andre Swift had 67% of the snaps last week. He's also exceeded this carries line in each of the first two games. You could approach his rushing line too, but I expect the Bears to heavily lean on Swift in this game. So I like approaching it this way.

Ashton Jeanty didn't have a strong rushing performance this past Sunday. Not even close to his Week 1 performance, in which he rushed for 102 yards and 4.4 yards per carry. I think he's in a great bounce-back spot this week against the Saints. The Saints have given up 4.8 yards per carry in the first two weeks. Yes, that was against Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry. But Jeanty is in the same class as those running backs. He has 44 carries the first two weeks, and I expec the Raiders to keep feeding him in this matchup.

The Buffalo Bills have a team total of 29.5 this Sunday vs. the Chargers. We expect points from the Bills and two of their receivers are questionable, and likely game-time decisions (DJ Moore and Keon Coleman). Kincaid has started this season on fire, with 12 receptions, 225 yards, and one touchdown in the first two games. He has 26% target share and 32% air yards share. Look for him to be a focal point again on Sunday. And I love this +185 price for a stud tight end on a high team total to find the endzone.