Houston has won the last five meetings...

Iowa travels to Michigan in this Big 10 clash...

Montreal has won three straight against the Leafs...

The weather will be cool (mid-50s), with a 14 mph wind blowing in from the south. Sonny Gray (17-5, 2.82 ERA, 146 K) brings sharp command (112 Pitching+, 106 Location+) and a slider that rates among the league’s best (124 Stuff+). Cleveland has had trouble handling tough right-handed breaking balls this year, sitting 26th in slugging (.384) and in the bottom five for hard-hit rate against sliders. Foster Griffin (15-5, 3.67 ERA, 151 K) matches up well against a Boston lineup that has struggled (92 wRC+) vs left-handed fastballs and cutters over the past month. Cleveland (+34 Defensive Runs Saved) and Boston (+18 Outs Above Average) both rank high at preventing runs. This is a great price on the F5 Under.

Seattle’s defensive scheme, especially their split-safety and Cover 6 looks, leaves open some key areas in the middle of the field. These coverages create soft spots between the deep-half safety near the sideline and the zone defenders underneath—exactly where Arizona likes to use Trey McBride. In Week 1, McBride lined up in the slot more than any other Cardinals pass-catcher, and according to Next Gen Stats, seven of his nine catches came from those inside positions. Over his last four games against Seattle, McBride has made the most of these coverages, posting lines of 12 catches for 133 yards, 7 for 70, 7 for 52, and 9 for 127—averaging 95.5 yards per game. A controlled environment makes this line closer to 69 yards.

Baltimore has cluster injuries at WR, with Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane highly questionable. The defense is also nicked up, and I can see this spread dipping a bit. Lamar Jackson and company have always been tough to defend on turf indoors, but now he’s outdoors on grass. The Saints have greater defensive speed than the Colts, and they showed their offense can score in bunches when Tyler Shough led them back to force overtime. Even if the Ravens control possession, the Saints can make explosive plays and keep the margin within the number. Baltimore has a huge matchup at Dallas coming up, so this could be a “sleepy” spot. My model has the Ravens favored by exactly 7 points.

Delaware’s stats against Vanderbilt look better than they should because they padded them during late fourth-quarter garbage time. On regular downs, Delaware gave up pressure on more than 40% of pass attempts and couldn’t get their run game going between the tackles. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina not only held their own at West Virginia, but also rolled over Fordham. The Chanticleers have a +0.75 Net YPP, a 68% pass-blocking win rate, and a +2 sack differential. Delaware lags behind with a +0.15 Net YPP, a 59% pass-blocking win rate, and a -4 sack differential. When adjusting for strength of schedule, Coastal Carolina’s control at the line of scrimmage stands out even more. I’d also take a shot on the Chanticleers to win outright.

Keider Montero (3.55 ERA, 3.56 xERA) has a clear pitching advantage early on against Max Scherzer (6.38 ERA, 4.43 xERA). Montero’s ability to keep the ball low, combined with the late-afternoon shadows at Rogers Centre, makes it hard for Toronto hitters to lift his sinker. This is a tough spot for a Blue Jays lineup that’s already 30th in runs per game and 29th in team slugging (.386). The Tigers are 7th in runs scored on the road and 18th at home. They are 4.5 games out of a wild card spot. Still fighting to the end. My model projects the Tigers to win the First 5 innings 62.7% of the time (fair odds of -168), giving you an 8.2% betting edge at -120 (54.5%).

Martin Perez presents one of the league’s most pronounced regression profiles. Although he currently holds a 3.08 ERA, his xERA is much higher at 4.58, alongside a .264 expected batting average allowed and a .328 xwOBA allowed across 547 plate appearances. Perez has struggled on the road and has only pitched at Wrigley Field twice since 2016—neither outing was successful. He now faces a Chicago lineup that leads MLB with 207 home runs, a .430 team slugging percentage, and a league-best 5.33 runs per game, also ranking first in OPS against left-handed starters. Contrarily, Kevin Gausman represents an inverse regression case: his 4.60 ERA belies a 4.02 xERA, a .309 xwOBA allowed, and a 112 Stuff+ splitter. Let's play the F5 at a fair price.

The Vikings will play their first Week 1 home game in three years, and U.S. Bank Stadium is a tough place for any team to start the season. Minnesota has won seven of its last ten Week 1 home games. Right now, the Vikings have an advantage on both the offensive and defensive lines. Backing defensive coordinator Brian Flores with extra time to scheme creative blitz packages seems right. Minnesota is favored by 1.5 points at most sportsbooks. Since 2000, home favorites in Week 1 who face teams that finished above .500 or made the playoffs the year before are 50-30-5 ATS. Since the Vikings are underdogs at MGM, I have to mention that Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 24-6 ATS since 2009.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a ginormous advantage over Washington in the trenches, and it’s not particularly close. Washington’s offensive line is weakened by injuries and lacks the chemistry needed to contain the Eagles' front seven. Philadelphia’s defensive line, led by Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, is set to exploit this weakness. In their last four matchups, the Eagles have run wild, piling up 875 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns at nearly six yards per carry. Last season, Washington managed to convert just 15.2% of their late downs. And that was with a better offensive line than they have now. Eagles should win comfortably, so I will swallow 4.5 points. My model has the Eagles winning by 8 points (24-16).

Julian Sayin put up strong passing numbers from a clean pocket against Ball State, but he was sacked twice on just four pressured dropbacks. Arch Manning completed all three of his pressured throws for 57 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.43 seconds per throw and avoiding risky mistakes. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp kept his creative defensive looks under wraps in Week 1, and those could make a big difference here. Texas is also motivated by last year's 14-7 loss, a game in which the Longhorns outgained the Buckeyes 336-203. With Ohio State breaking in new starters in the secondary and having to play in Austin's tough mid-to-upper 90s heat, Texas' strength up front should wear down the Buckeyes as the game goes on.

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is a hitter’s paradise. With a 125 Run Factor and a 127 Home Run Factor, it’s one of the most offense-friendly parks around. Toronto’s lineup, full of high-contact hitters (2nd-lowest strikeout rate), is in an ideal spot to take advantage of A’s starter Jacob Lopez. His low-spin breaking pitches are likely to lose their bite in the hot, dry Central Valley air. The Athletics’ bullpen is exhausted. Multiple key relievers have high pitch counts over the last three days. The unit owns the league’s worst ERA while ranking 28th in home runs allowed. Five runs for the road team seems very doable in this spot.

Tanner Gordon is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (8th percentile in ground-ball rate) and allows a high rate of barrels (15th percentile). At Coors Field, where he holds a 7.89 ERA, high-contact fly-ball pitchers suffer the largest run penalties in MLB. With low velocity (92.7 mph) and limited swing-and-miss ability, the Orioles should score early and often. Gordon has completed 6 or more innings in only two starts all season, so Baltimore should face Colorado’s bullpen for at least four innings. Colorado’s relievers were stretched in a 10-inning game in Atlanta yesterday, depleting their high-leverage arms for Monday's homestand opener. Colorado's bullpen ranks 29th in second-half SIERA (4.78), and the staff holds an ERA of 4.77. My model has Baltimore scoring 6.4 runs in 9 innings.

Hawaii is my top pick for Week 0, fitting the system profile as an underdog of four or more points with superior line play. Meanwhile, Stanford faces significant changes, from a new coaching staff to heavy roster turnover—especially in the secondary. That could spell trouble against Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang’s run-and-shoot attack, led by sophomore quarterback Micah Alejado, who completed nearly 70% of his throws in defeating Stanford by three points last year. Stanford’s new quarterback, Davis Warren, hasn’t taken a regular-season snap in two years. The Cardinal opened as three-point favorites, largely on perceived home-field advantage and Power Five reputation. The long flight for Hawaii doesn’t bother me in the first game of the season. Grab the points.