The Orioles face off with Tanner Gordon in Colorado and this is a reasonably priced team total to get in Colorado for the away team. The O's have scored at least five runs in all but one game over the last week, and despite not scoring a ton in Sacramento, I'm going to back them tonight. The Rockies righty had a strong start last time out but he's got an ERA nearing eight at home while it's under three on the road. The splits are startling even knowing how hitter friendly Coors Field is, and it's thanks to being a fly ball pitcher that doesn't strike many batters out and allows too much hard contact; a recipe for poor results in Colorado.
Tanner Gordon is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (8th percentile in ground-ball rate) and allows a high rate of barrels (15th percentile). At Coors Field, where he holds a 7.89 ERA, high-contact fly-ball pitchers suffer the largest run penalties in MLB. With low velocity (92.7 mph) and limited swing-and-miss ability, the Orioles should score early and often. Gordon has completed 6 or more innings in only two starts all season, so Baltimore should face ColoradoтАЩs bullpen for at least four innings. ColoradoтАЩs relievers were stretched in a 10-inning game in Atlanta yesterday, depleting their high-leverage arms for Monday's homestand opener. Colorado's bullpen ranks 29th in second-half SIERA (4.78), and the staff holds an ERA of 4.77. My model has Baltimore scoring 6.4 runs in 9 innings.
Don't look now, but the Orioles are only one game out of the American League's final playoff spot despite being one game under .500. Baltimore is 7-2 in its last nine games, including a weekend sweep of the Athletics in Sacramento. Now they face the National League's worst team in Colorado and starter Tanner Gordon. In 43.1 innings at Coors Field, the right hander has posted a 7.89 ERA and has surrendered 14 of his 17 home runs allowed. Kyle Bradish hasn't pitched overly well for Baltimore of late but I trust him more than Gordon. I'll lay the juice with the Orioles on Monday night.
Hughes did not factor into the decision in Friday's 5-4 loss to the Mariners, allowing three runs on five hits and one walk with six strikeouts over 4.2 innings.
McCarthy went 3-for-5 with a triple, two RBI, one run scored and a stolen base in Friday's 5-4 loss to the Mariners.
Carrigg went 3-for-5 with one RBI and two stolen bases in Friday's 5-4 loss to the Mariners.
The Rockies plan to activate Quintana (elbow) from the 60-day injured list to start Saturday's game against the Mariners in Colorado, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Goodman (thumb) will start at catcher and bat cleanup in Friday's game versus the Mariners.
The Orioles recalled Povich from Triple-A Norfolk on Friday.
Gordon (1-5) took the loss Thursday against the Padres, allowing seven runs on 10 hits and two walks in three innings. He struck out three.
Tovar is out of the lineup for Thursday's game against the Padres.
Goodman (thumb) is out of the lineup for Thursday's game against the Padres.
Bradfield will be held out of the lineup at Triple-A Norfolk on Thursday due to right adductor tightness, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
