Hawaii was one of the great stories last football season and have similar vibes entering 2026. QB Micah Alejado is back under center and they have a lot of returning production on the defensive side of the ball. Stanford played competitively tough all season long last year and will be significantly better in 2026. I still have to take the wait-and-see approach with their offensive skill talent, which doesn't give me confidence in them covering this spread.
Hawaii finished 9-4 last year in the Mountain West Conference, and their season started with a 23-20 win against Stanford. They finished the year in the bowl game against another ACC power, Cal, winning 35-31. The team's leader is sophomore quarterback Micah Alejado. He averaged 282 passing yards per game with 24 touchdown passes and only nine interceptions, earning him Mountain West Freshman of the Year. They build off of last year's success in Timmy Chang's program and continue it with the win at Stanford.
Hawaii is my top pick for Week 0, fitting the system profile as an underdog of four or more points with superior line play. Meanwhile, Stanford faces significant changes, from a new coaching staff to heavy roster turnover—especially in the secondary. That could spell trouble against Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang’s run-and-shoot attack, led by sophomore quarterback Micah Alejado, who completed nearly 70% of his throws in defeating Stanford by three points last year. Stanford’s new quarterback, Davis Warren, hasn’t taken a regular-season snap in two years. The Cardinal opened as three-point favorites, largely on perceived home-field advantage and Power Five reputation. The long flight for Hawaii doesn’t bother me in the first game of the season. Grab the points.
