Though Ohio State dominated Texas in the College Footbal Playoff semifinal two years ago, last year's meeting was not only much closer -- the Longhorns were the better team despite falling 14-7 in Columbus, Ohio. Arch Manning has only further developed over the last year, and Will Muschamp’s aggressive, physical, disciplined defensive attack should be able to keep Julian Sayin off his mark. If Texas can avoid blitzing and still get pressure on Sayin in that Austin heat, it will win. If not, Jeremiah Smith will get loose, as usual, and make the ‘Horns pay.
I believe both these teams are two of the best we have, but it's hard for me to trust the Longhorns in a spot like this because they continue to come up short in spots like this. I simply trust the Buckeyes more, and if I can get points with them, I'll take em.
Last year, the Buckeyes managed a 14-7 victory over the Longhorns in a defensive battle. Quarterbacks Julian Sayin and Arch Manning each put up modest numbers in their respective big-stage debuts, but Sayin’s late TD pass to Carnell Tate was a difference-maker. Now, the scene shifts to Austin for the rematch. While we’re cognizant of Ohio State’s dominance in recent years, the Longhorns have some advantages. Memorial Stadium is a difficult place to play for any opponent in a primetime showcase affair, and the projected 90-degree heat should work in the Longhorns’ favor. What’s more, their defense held Heisman candidate Jeremiah Smith to just 43 yards on 6 catches. We see value on the Longhorns at this pick’em price without having lay points.
Ohio State beat Texas two times last year, the first time when they scored 14 points in the 4th quarter to win 28-14 in the playoffs. The second came in August when Julian Sayin didn't make any turnovers, and Arch Manning did in the Buckeyes' 14- 7 win. The Buckeyes had no turnovers in last season's meeting. I think that's going to be the case again Saturday when they meet in Austin. The Buckeyes win with conservative bully football like they did last year in Columbus. Except this year, I think Sayin has a much bigger role in his sophomore season. Manning's going to eventually experience good times, but Ohio State is a better football program, and the Buckeyes take care of business on Saturday.
Julian Sayin put up strong passing numbers from a clean pocket against Ball State, but he was sacked twice on just four pressured dropbacks. Arch Manning completed all three of his pressured throws for 57 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.43 seconds per throw and avoiding risky mistakes. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp kept his creative defensive looks under wraps in Week 1, and those could make a big difference here. Texas is also motivated by last year's 14-7 loss, a game in which the Longhorns outgained the Buckeyes 336-203. With Ohio State breaking in new starters in the secondary and having to play in Austin's tough mid-to-upper 90s heat, Texas' strength up front should wear down the Buckeyes as the game goes on.
